Weihao Kong

Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Andrew Leach et al.

Recent work has shown that simple linear models can outperform several Transformer based approaches in long term time-series forecasting. Motivated by this, we propose a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) based encoder-decoder model, Time-series Dense Encoder (TiDE), for long-term time-series forecasting that enjoys the simplicity and speed of linear models while also being able to handle covariates and non-linear dependencies. Theoretically, we prove that the simplest linear analogue of our model can achieve near optimal error rate for linear dynamical systems (LDS) under some assumptions. Empirically, we show that our method can match or outperform prior approaches on popular long-term time-series forecasting benchmarks while being 5-10x faster than the best Transformer based model.

Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Biswajit Paria et al. · cmu

Probabilistic, hierarchically coherent forecasting is a key problem in many practical forecasting applications -- the goal is to obtain coherent probabilistic predictions for a large number of time series arranged in a pre-specified tree hierarchy. In this paper, we present an end-to-end deep probabilistic model for hierarchical forecasting that is motivated by a classical top-down strategy. It jointly learns the distribution of the root time series, and the (dirichlet) proportions according to which each parent time-series is split among its children at any point in time. The resulting forecasts are naturally coherent, and provide probabilistic predictions over all time series in the hierarchy. We experiment on several public datasets and demonstrate significant improvements of up to 26% on most datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Finally, we also provide theoretical justification for the superiority of our top-down approach compared to the more traditional bottom-up modeling.

Xiyang Liu, Weihao Kong, Prateek Jain et al.

We study the canonical statistical task of computing the principal component from $n$ i.i.d.~data in $d$ dimensions under $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differential privacy. Although extensively studied in literature, existing solutions fall short on two key aspects: ($i$) even for Gaussian data, existing private algorithms require the number of samples $n$ to scale super-linearly with $d$, i.e., $n=Ω(d^{3/2})$, to obtain non-trivial results while non-private PCA requires only $n=O(d)$, and ($ii$) existing techniques suffer from a non-vanishing error even when the randomness in each data point is arbitrarily small. We propose DP-PCA, which is a single-pass algorithm that overcomes both limitations. It is based on a private minibatch gradient ascent method that relies on {\em private mean estimation}, which adds minimal noise required to ensure privacy by adapting to the variance of a given minibatch of gradients. For sub-Gaussian data, we provide nearly optimal statistical error rates even for $n=\tilde O(d)$. Furthermore, we provide a lower bound showing that sub-Gaussian style assumption is necessary in obtaining the optimal error rate.

Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Rajat Sen et al.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Xiyang Liu, Prateek Jain, Weihao Kong et al.

We study the canonical statistical estimation problem of linear regression from $n$ i.i.d.~examples under $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differential privacy when some response variables are adversarially corrupted. We propose a variant of the popular differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) algorithm with two innovations: a full-batch gradient descent to improve sample complexity and a novel adaptive clipping to guarantee robustness. When there is no adversarial corruption, this algorithm improves upon the existing state-of-the-art approach and achieves a near optimal sample complexity. Under label-corruption, this is the first efficient linear regression algorithm to guarantee both $(\varepsilon,δ)$-DP and robustness. Synthetic experiments confirm the superiority of our approach.

Pranjal Awasthi, Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong et al.

We study the problem of learning generalized linear models under adversarial corruptions. We analyze a classical heuristic called the iterative trimmed maximum likelihood estimator which is known to be effective against label corruptions in practice. Under label corruptions, we prove that this simple estimator achieves minimax near-optimal risk on a wide range of generalized linear models, including Gaussian regression, Poisson regression and Binomial regression. Finally, we extend the estimator to the more challenging setting of label and covariate corruptions and demonstrate its robustness and optimality in that setting as well.

Ayush Jain, Rajat Sen, Weihao Kong et al.

In many learning applications, data are collected from multiple sources, each providing a \emph{batch} of samples that by itself is insufficient to learn its input-output relationship. A common approach assumes that the sources fall in one of several unknown subgroups, each with an unknown input distribution and input-output relationship. We consider one of this setup's most fundamental and important manifestations where the output is a noisy linear combination of the inputs, and there are $k$ subgroups, each with its own regression vector. Prior work~\cite{kong2020meta} showed that with abundant small-batches, the regression vectors can be learned with only few, $\tildeΩ( k^{3/2})$, batches of medium-size with $\tildeΩ(\sqrt k)$ samples each. However, the paper requires that the input distribution for all $k$ subgroups be isotropic Gaussian, and states that removing this assumption is an ``interesting and challenging problem". We propose a novel gradient-based algorithm that improves on the existing results in several ways. It extends the applicability of the algorithm by: (1) allowing the subgroups' underlying input distributions to be different, unknown, and heavy-tailed; (2) recovering all subgroups followed by a significant proportion of batches even for infinite $k$; (3) removing the separation requirement between the regression vectors; (4) reducing the number of batches and allowing smaller batch sizes.

Jonathan N. Lee, Weihao Kong, Aldo Pacchiano et al.

In many bandit problems, the maximal reward achievable by a policy is often unknown in advance. We consider the problem of estimating the optimal policy value in the sublinear data regime before the optimal policy is even learnable. We refer to this as $V^*$ estimation. It was recently shown that fast $V^*$ estimation is possible but only in disjoint linear bandits with Gaussian covariates. Whether this is possible for more realistic context distributions has remained an open and important question for tasks such as model selection. In this paper, we first provide lower bounds showing that this general problem is hard. However, under stronger assumptions, we give an algorithm and analysis proving that $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d})$ sublinear estimation of $V^*$ is indeed information-theoretically possible, where $d$ is the dimension. We then present a more practical, computationally efficient algorithm that estimates a problem-dependent upper bound on $V^*$ that holds for general distributions and is tight when the context distribution is Gaussian. We prove our algorithm requires only $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d})$ samples to estimate the upper bound. We use this upper bound and the estimator to obtain novel and improved guarantees for several applications in bandit model selection and testing for treatment effects.

Reese Pathak, Rajat Sen, Weihao Kong et al.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

Abhimanyu Das, Ayush Jain, Weihao Kong et al.

We begin the study of list-decodable linear regression using batches. In this setting only an $α\in (0,1]$ fraction of the batches are genuine. Each genuine batch contains $\ge n$ i.i.d. samples from a common unknown distribution and the remaining batches may contain arbitrary or even adversarial samples. We derive a polynomial time algorithm that for any $n\ge \tilde Ω(1/α)$ returns a list of size $\mathcal O(1/α^2)$ such that one of the items in the list is close to the true regression parameter. The algorithm requires only $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d/α^2)$ genuine batches and works under fairly general assumptions on the distribution. The results demonstrate the utility of batch structure, which allows for the first polynomial time algorithm for list-decodable regression, which may be impossible for the non-batch setting, as suggested by a recent SQ lower bound \cite{diakonikolas2021statistical} for the non-batch setting.

Weihao Kong, Mingda Qiao, Rajat Sen

We study the problem of recovering Gaussian data under adversarial corruptions when the noises are low-rank and the corruptions are on the coordinate level. Concretely, we assume that the Gaussian noises lie in an unknown $k$-dimensional subspace $U \subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$, and $s$ randomly chosen coordinates of each data point fall into the control of an adversary. This setting models the scenario of learning from high-dimensional yet structured data that are transmitted through a highly-noisy channel, so that the data points are unlikely to be entirely clean. Our main result is an efficient algorithm that, when $ks^2 = O(d)$, recovers every single data point up to a nearly-optimal $\ell_1$ error of $\tilde O(ks/d)$ in expectation. At the core of our proof is a new analysis of the well-known Basis Pursuit (BP) method for recovering a sparse signal, which is known to succeed under additional assumptions (e.g., incoherence or the restricted isometry property) on the underlying subspace $U$. In contrast, we present a novel approach via studying a natural combinatorial problem and show that, over the randomness in the support of the sparse signal, a high-probability error bound is possible even if the subspace $U$ is arbitrary.

Jonathan Hayase, Weihao Kong, Raghav Somani et al.

Modern machine learning increasingly requires training on a large collection of data from multiple sources, not all of which can be trusted. A particularly concerning scenario is when a small fraction of poisoned data changes the behavior of the trained model when triggered by an attacker-specified watermark. Such a compromised model will be deployed unnoticed as the model is accurate otherwise. There have been promising attempts to use the intermediate representations of such a model to separate corrupted examples from clean ones. However, these defenses work only when a certain spectral signature of the poisoned examples is large enough for detection. There is a wide range of attacks that cannot be protected against by the existing defenses. We propose a novel defense algorithm using robust covariance estimation to amplify the spectral signature of corrupted data. This defense provides a clean model, completely removing the backdoor, even in regimes where previous methods have no hope of detecting the poisoned examples. Code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/SewoongLab/spectre-defense .

Gavin Brown, Jonathan Hayase, Samuel Hopkins et al.

We present a sample- and time-efficient differentially private algorithm for ordinary least squares, with error that depends linearly on the dimension and is independent of the condition number of $X^\top X$, where $X$ is the design matrix. All prior private algorithms for this task require either $d^{3/2}$ examples, error growing polynomially with the condition number, or exponential time. Our near-optimal accuracy guarantee holds for any dataset with bounded statistical leverage and bounded residuals. Technically, we build on the approach of Brown et al. (2023) for private mean estimation, adding scaled noise to a carefully designed stable nonprivate estimator of the empirical regression vector.

Yang Liu, Yi Chen, Yongwei Zhao et al.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has established language as a core general-purpose cognitive substrate, driving the demand for specialized Language Processing Units (LPUs) tailored for LLM inference. To overcome the growing energy consumption of LLM inference systems, this paper proposes a Hardwired-Neurons Language Processing Unit (HNLPU), which physically hardwires LLM weight parameters into the computational fabric, achieving several orders of magnitude computational efficiency improvement by extreme specialization. However, a significant challenge still lies in the scale of modern LLMs. An ideal estimation on hardwiring gpt-oss 120 B requires fabricating at least 6 billion dollars of photomask sets, rendering the straightforward solution economically impractical. Addressing this challenge, we propose the novel Metal-Embedding methodology. Instead of embedding weights in a 2D grid of silicon device cells, Metal-Embedding embeds weight parameters into the 3D topology of metal wires. This brings two benefits: (1) a 15x increase in density, and (2) 60 out of 70 layers of photomasks are made homogeneous across chips, including all EUV photomasks. In total, Metal-Embedding reduced the photomask cost by 112x, bringing the Non-Recurring Engineering (NRE) cost of HNLPU into an economically viable range. Experimental results show that HNLPU achieved 249,960 tokens/s (5,555x/85x of GPU/WSE), 36 tokens/J (1,047x/283x of GPU/WSE), 13,232 mm2 total die area (29% inscribed rectangular area in a 300 mm wafer), \$184M estimated NRE at 5 nm technology. Analysis shows that HNLPU achieved 8.57x cost-effectiveness and 230x carbon footprint reduction compared to H100 clusters, under an annual weight updating assumption.

Xiyang Liu, Weihao Kong, Sewoong Oh

We introduce a universal framework for characterizing the statistical efficiency of a statistical estimation problem with differential privacy guarantees. Our framework, which we call High-dimensional Propose-Test-Release (HPTR), builds upon three crucial components: the exponential mechanism, robust statistics, and the Propose-Test-Release mechanism. Gluing all these together is the concept of resilience, which is central to robust statistical estimation. Resilience guides the design of the algorithm, the sensitivity analysis, and the success probability analysis of the test step in Propose-Test-Release. The key insight is that if we design an exponential mechanism that accesses the data only via one-dimensional robust statistics, then the resulting local sensitivity can be dramatically reduced. Using resilience, we can provide tight local sensitivity bounds. These tight bounds readily translate into near-optimal utility guarantees in several cases. We give a general recipe for applying HPTR to a given instance of a statistical estimation problem and demonstrate it on canonical problems of mean estimation, linear regression, covariance estimation, and principal component analysis. We introduce a general utility analysis technique that proves that HPTR nearly achieves the optimal sample complexity under several scenarios studied in the literature.

Zhen Miao, Weihao Kong, Ramya Korlakai Vinayak et al.

This paper investigates the theoretical and empirical performance of Fisher-Pitman-type permutation tests for assessing the equality of unknown Poisson mixture distributions. Building on nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLEs) of the mixing distribution, these tests are theoretically shown to be able to adapt to complicated unspecified structures of count data and also consistent against their corresponding ANOVA-type alternatives; the latter is a result in parallel to classic claims made by Robinson (Robinson, 1973). The studied methods are then applied to a single-cell RNA-seq data obtained from different cell types from brain samples of autism subjects and healthy controls; empirically, they unveil genes that are differentially expressed between autism and control subjects yet are missed using common tests. For justifying their use, rate optimality of NPMLEs is also established in settings similar to nonparametric Gaussian (Wu and Yang, 2020a) and binomial mixtures (Tian et al., 2017; Vinayak et al., 2019).

Xiyang Liu, Weihao Kong, Sham Kakade et al.

In statistical learning and analysis from shared data, which is increasingly widely adopted in platforms such as federated learning and meta-learning, there are two major concerns: privacy and robustness. Each participating individual should be able to contribute without the fear of leaking one's sensitive information. At the same time, the system should be robust in the presence of malicious participants inserting corrupted data. Recent algorithmic advances in learning from shared data focus on either one of these threats, leaving the system vulnerable to the other. We bridge this gap for the canonical problem of estimating the mean from i.i.d. samples. We introduce PRIME, which is the first efficient algorithm that achieves both privacy and robustness for a wide range of distributions. We further complement this result with a novel exponential time algorithm that improves the sample complexity of PRIME, achieving a near-optimal guarantee and matching a known lower bound for (non-robust) private mean estimation. This proves that there is no extra statistical cost to simultaneously guaranteeing privacy and robustness.

Jonathan N. Lee, Aldo Pacchiano, Vidya Muthukumar et al.

Deep reinforcement learning has achieved impressive successes yet often requires a very large amount of interaction data. This result is perhaps unsurprising, as using complicated function approximation often requires more data to fit, and early theoretical results on linear Markov decision processes provide regret bounds that scale with the dimension of the linear approximation. Ideally, we would like to automatically identify the minimal dimension of the approximation that is sufficient to encode an optimal policy. Towards this end, we consider the problem of model selection in RL with function approximation, given a set of candidate RL algorithms with known regret guarantees. The learner's goal is to adapt to the complexity of the optimal algorithm without knowing it \textit{a priori}. We present a meta-algorithm that successively rejects increasingly complex models using a simple statistical test. Given at least one candidate that satisfies realizability, we prove the meta-algorithm adapts to the optimal complexity with $\tilde{O}(L^{5/6} T^{2/3})$ regret compared to the optimal candidate's $\tilde{O}(\sqrt T)$ regret, where $T$ is the number of episodes and $L$ is the number of algorithms. The dimension and horizon dependencies remain optimal with respect to the best candidate, and our meta-algorithmic approach is flexible to incorporate multiple candidate algorithms and models. Finally, we show that the meta-algorithm automatically admits significantly improved instance-dependent regret bounds that depend on the gaps between the maximal values attainable by the candidates.

Weihao Kong, Raghav Somani, Sham Kakade et al.

A common challenge faced in practical supervised learning, such as medical image processing and robotic interactions, is that there are plenty of tasks but each task cannot afford to collect enough labeled examples to be learned in isolation. However, by exploiting the similarities across those tasks, one can hope to overcome such data scarcity. Under a canonical scenario where each task is drawn from a mixture of k linear regressions, we study a fundamental question: can abundant small-data tasks compensate for the lack of big-data tasks? Existing second moment based approaches show that such a trade-off is efficiently achievable, with the help of medium-sized tasks with $Ω(k^{1/2})$ examples each. However, this algorithm is brittle in two important scenarios. The predictions can be arbitrarily bad (i) even with only a few outliers in the dataset; or (ii) even if the medium-sized tasks are slightly smaller with $o(k^{1/2})$ examples each. We introduce a spectral approach that is simultaneously robust under both scenarios. To this end, we first design a novel outlier-robust principal component analysis algorithm that achieves an optimal accuracy. This is followed by a sum-of-squares algorithm to exploit the information from higher order moments. Together, this approach is robust against outliers and achieves a graceful statistical trade-off; the lack of $Ω(k^{1/2})$-size tasks can be compensated for with smaller tasks, which can now be as small as $O(\log k)$.

Weihao Kong, Raghav Somani, Zhao Song et al.

In modern supervised learning, there are a large number of tasks, but many of them are associated with only a small amount of labeled data. These include data from medical image processing and robotic interaction. Even though each individual task cannot be meaningfully trained in isolation, one seeks to meta-learn across the tasks from past experiences by exploiting some similarities. We study a fundamental question of interest: When can abundant tasks with small data compensate for lack of tasks with big data? We focus on a canonical scenario where each task is drawn from a mixture of $k$ linear regressions, and identify sufficient conditions for such a graceful exchange to hold; The total number of examples necessary with only small data tasks scales similarly as when big data tasks are available. To this end, we introduce a novel spectral approach and show that we can efficiently utilize small data tasks with the help of $\tildeΩ(k^{3/2})$ medium data tasks each with $\tildeΩ(k^{1/2})$ examples.

Weihao Kong, Gregory Valiant, Emma Brunskill

We study the problem of estimating the expected reward of the optimal policy in the stochastic disjoint linear bandit setting. We prove that for certain settings it is possible to obtain an accurate estimate of the optimal policy value even with a number of samples that is sublinear in the number that would be required to \emph{find} a policy that realizes a value close to this optima. We establish nearly matching information theoretic lower bounds, showing that our algorithm achieves near optimal estimation error. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on joke recommendation and cancer inhibition dosage selection problems using real datasets.

Ramya Korlakai Vinayak, Weihao Kong, Sham M. Kakade

Paired estimation of change in parameters of interest over a population plays a central role in several application domains including those in the social sciences, epidemiology, medicine and biology. In these domains, the size of the population under study is often very large, however, the number of observations available per individual in the population is very small (\emph{sparse observations}) which makes the problem challenging. Consider the setting with $N$ independent individuals, each with unknown parameters $(p_i, q_i)$ drawn from some unknown distribution on $[0, 1]^2$. We observe $X_i \sim \text{Bin}(t, p_i)$ before an event and $Y_i \sim \text{Bin}(t, q_i)$ after the event. Provided these paired observations, $\{(X_i, Y_i) \}_{i=1}^N$, our goal is to accurately estimate the \emph{distribution of the change in parameters}, $δ_i := q_i - p_i$, over the population and properties of interest like the \emph{$\ell_1$-magnitude of the change} with sparse observations ($t\ll N$). We provide \emph{information theoretic lower bounds} on the error in estimating the distribution of change and the $\ell_1$-magnitude of change. Furthermore, we show that the following two step procedure achieves the optimal error bounds: first, estimate the full joint distribution of the paired parameters using the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and then estimate the distribution of change and the $\ell_1$-magnitude of change using the joint MLE. Notably, and perhaps surprisingly, these error bounds are of the same order as the minimax optimal error bounds for learning the \emph{full} joint distribution itself (in Wasserstein-1 distance); in other words, estimating the magnitude of the change of parameters over the population is, in a minimax sense, as difficult as estimating the full joint distribution itself.

Ramya Korlakai Vinayak, Weihao Kong, Gregory Valiant et al.

Consider a setting with $N$ independent individuals, each with an unknown parameter, $p_i \in [0, 1]$ drawn from some unknown distribution $P^\star$. After observing the outcomes of $t$ independent Bernoulli trials, i.e., $X_i \sim \text{Binomial}(t, p_i)$ per individual, our objective is to accurately estimate $P^\star$. This problem arises in numerous domains, including the social sciences, psychology, health-care, and biology, where the size of the population under study is usually large while the number of observations per individual is often limited. Our main result shows that, in the regime where $t \ll N$, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is both statistically minimax optimal and efficiently computable. Precisely, for sufficiently large $N$, the MLE achieves the information theoretic optimal error bound of $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{t})$ for $t < c\log{N}$, with regards to the earth mover's distance (between the estimated and true distributions). More generally, in an exponentially large interval of $t$ beyond $c \log{N}$, the MLE achieves the minimax error bound of $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\sqrt{t\log N}})$. In contrast, regardless of how large $N$ is, the naive "plug-in" estimator for this problem only achieves the sub-optimal error of $Θ(\frac{1}{\sqrt{t}})$.

Ilias Diakonikolas, Weihao Kong, Alistair Stewart

We study the problem of high-dimensional linear regression in a robust model where an $ε$-fraction of the samples can be adversarially corrupted. We focus on the fundamental setting where the covariates of the uncorrupted samples are drawn from a Gaussian distribution $\mathcal{N}(0, Σ)$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$. We give nearly tight upper bounds and computational lower bounds for this problem. Specifically, our main contributions are as follows: For the case that the covariance matrix is known to be the identity, we give a sample near-optimal and computationally efficient algorithm that outputs a candidate hypothesis vector $\widehatβ$ which approximates the unknown regression vector $β$ within $\ell_2$-norm $O(ε\log(1/ε) σ)$, where $σ$ is the standard deviation of the random observation noise. An error of $Ω(εσ)$ is information-theoretically necessary, even with infinite sample size. Prior work gave an algorithm for this problem with sample complexity $\tildeΩ(d^2/ε^2)$ whose error guarantee scales with the $\ell_2$-norm of $β$. For the case of unknown covariance, we show that we can efficiently achieve the same error guarantee as in the known covariance case using an additional $\tilde{O}(d^2/ε^2)$ unlabeled examples. On the other hand, an error of $O(εσ)$ can be information-theoretically attained with $O(d/ε^2)$ samples. We prove a Statistical Query (SQ) lower bound providing evidence that this quadratic tradeoff in the sample size is inherent. More specifically, we show that any polynomial time SQ learning algorithm for robust linear regression (in Huber's contamination model) with estimation complexity $O(d^{2-c})$, where $c>0$ is an arbitrarily small constant, must incur an error of $Ω(\sqrtε σ)$.

Weihao Kong, Gregory Valiant

We consider the problem of estimating how well a model class is capable of fitting a distribution of labeled data. We show that it is often possible to accurately estimate this "learnability" even when given an amount of data that is too small to reliably learn any accurate model. Our first result applies to the setting where the data is drawn from a $d$-dimensional distribution with isotropic covariance (or known covariance), and the label of each datapoint is an arbitrary noisy function of the datapoint. In this setting, we show that with $O(\sqrt{d})$ samples, one can accurately estimate the fraction of the variance of the label that can be explained via the best linear function of the data. In contrast to this sublinear sample size, finding an approximation of the best-fit linear function requires on the order of $d$ samples. Our sublinear sample results and approach also extend to the non-isotropic setting, where the data distribution has an (unknown) arbitrary covariance matrix: we show that, if the label $y$ of point $x$ is a linear function with independent noise, $y = \langle x , β\rangle + noise$ with $\|β\|$ bounded, the variance of the noise can be estimated to error $ε$ with $O(d^{1-1/\log{1/ε}})$ if the covariance matrix has bounded condition number, or $O(d^{1-\sqrtε})$ if there are no bounds on the condition number. We also establish that these sample complexities are optimal, to constant factors. Finally, we extend these techniques to the setting of binary classification, where we obtain analogous sample complexities for the problem of estimating the prediction error of the best linear classifier, in a natural model of binary labeled data. We demonstrate the practical viability of our approaches on several real and synthetic datasets.

Kevin Tian, Weihao Kong, Gregory Valiant

Consider the following estimation problem: there are $n$ entities, each with an unknown parameter $p_i \in [0,1]$, and we observe $n$ independent random variables, $X_1,\ldots,X_n$, with $X_i \sim $ Binomial$(t, p_i)$. How accurately can one recover the "histogram" (i.e. cumulative density function) of the $p_i$'s? While the empirical estimates would recover the histogram to earth mover distance $Θ(\frac{1}{\sqrt{t}})$ (equivalently, $\ell_1$ distance between the CDFs), we show that, provided $n$ is sufficiently large, we can achieve error $O(\frac{1}{t})$ which is information theoretically optimal. We also extend our results to the multi-dimensional parameter case, capturing settings where each member of the population has multiple associated parameters. Beyond the theoretical results, we demonstrate that the recovery algorithm performs well in practice on a variety of datasets, providing illuminating insights into several domains, including politics, sports analytics, and variation in the gender ratio of offspring.

Qingqing Huang, Sham M. Kakade, Weihao Kong et al.

We consider the problem of accurately recovering a matrix B of size M by M , which represents a probability distribution over M2 outcomes, given access to an observed matrix of "counts" generated by taking independent samples from the distribution B. How can structural properties of the underlying matrix B be leveraged to yield computationally efficient and information theoretically optimal reconstruction algorithms? When can accurate reconstruction be accomplished in the sparse data regime? This basic problem lies at the core of a number of questions that are currently being considered by different communities, including building recommendation systems and collaborative filtering in the sparse data regime, community detection in sparse random graphs, learning structured models such as topic models or hidden Markov models, and the efforts from the natural language processing community to compute "word embeddings". Our results apply to the setting where B has a low rank structure. For this setting, we propose an efficient algorithm that accurately recovers the underlying M by M matrix using Theta(M) samples. This result easily translates to Theta(M) sample algorithms for learning topic models and learning hidden Markov Models. These linear sample complexities are optimal, up to constant factors, in an extremely strong sense: even testing basic properties of the underlying matrix (such as whether it has rank 1 or 2) requires Omega(M) samples. We provide an even stronger lower bound where distinguishing whether a sequence of observations were drawn from the uniform distribution over M observations versus being generated by an HMM with two hidden states requires Omega(M) observations. This precludes sublinear-sample hypothesis tests for basic properties, such as identity or uniformity, as well as sublinear sample estimators for quantities such as the entropy rate of HMMs.

Weihao Kong, Gregory Valiant

We consider the problem of approximating the set of eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of a multivariate distribution (equivalently, the problem of approximating the "population spectrum"), given access to samples drawn from the distribution. The eigenvalues of the covariance of a distribution contain basic information about the distribution, including the presence or lack of structure in the distribution, the effective dimensionality of the distribution, and the applicability of higher-level machine learning and multivariate statistical tools. We consider this fundamental recovery problem in the regime where the number of samples is comparable, or even sublinear in the dimensionality of the distribution in question. First, we propose a theoretically optimal and computationally efficient algorithm for recovering the moments of the eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix. We then leverage this accurate moment recovery, via a Wasserstein distance argument, to show that the vector of eigenvalues can be accurately recovered. We provide finite--sample bounds on the expected error of the recovered eigenvalues, which imply that our estimator is asymptotically consistent as the dimensionality of the distribution and sample size tend towards infinity, even in the sublinear sample regime where the ratio of the sample size to the dimensionality tends to zero. In addition to our theoretical results, we show that our approach performs well in practice for a broad range of distributions and sample sizes.