Ian Schneider

Ian Schneider, Jun Jie Joseph Kuan, Mardavij Roozbehani et al.

Spurred by the growth of transportation network companies and increasing data capabilities, vehicle routing and ride-matching algorithms can improve the efficiency of private transportation services. However, existing routing solutions do not address where drivers should travel after dropping off a passenger and before receiving the next passenger ride request, i.e., during the between-ride period. We address this problem by developing an efficient algorithm to find the optimal policy for drivers between rides in order to maximize driver profits. We model the road network as a graph, and we show that the between-ride routing problem is equivalent to a stochastic shortest path problem, an infinite dynamic program with no discounting. We prove under reasonable assumptions that an optimal routing policy exists that avoids cycles; policies of this type can be efficiently found. We present an iterative approach to find an optimal routing policy. Our approach can account for various factors, including the frequency of passenger ride requests at different locations, traffic conditions, and surge pricing. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach by implementing it on road network data from Boston and New York City.

Elaheh Fata, Igor Kadota, Ian Schneider

Electricity is bought and sold in wholesale markets at prices that fluctuate significantly. Short-term forecasting of electricity prices is an important endeavor because it helps electric utilities control risk and because it influences competitive strategy for generators. As the "smart grid" grows, short-term price forecasts are becoming an important input to bidding and control algorithms for battery operators and demand response aggregators. While the statistics and machine learning literature offers many proposed methods for electricity price prediction, there is no consensus supporting a single best approach. We test two contrasting machine learning approaches for predicting electricity prices, regression decision trees and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and compare them to a more traditional ARIMA implementation. We conduct the analysis on a challenging dataset of electricity prices from ERCOT, in Texas, where price fluctuation is especially high. We find that regression decision trees in particular achieves high performance compared to the other methods, suggesting that regression trees should be more carefully considered for electricity price forecasting.