Gian Marco Paldino

Alejandro Morales-Hernández, Fabrizio De Caroa, Gian Marco Paldino et al.

Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs). These early warnings enable the timely initiation of more detailed system stability assessments and preventive actions. However, forecasting these events is challenging due to the inherent class imbalance in WPRE datasets, where ramp events are less frequent (typically less than 15\% of observed events) compared to normal conditions. Ignoring this characteristic undermines the performance of conventional machine learning models, which often favor the majority class. This paper introduces a novel methodology for WPRE forecasting as a multivariate time series classification task and proposes a data preprocessing strategy that extracts features from recent power observations and masks unavailable ramp information, making it integrable with traditional real-time ramp identification tools. Particularly, the proposed methodology combines majority-class undersampling and ensemble learning to enhance wind ramp event forecasting under class imbalance. Numerical simulations conducted on a real-world dataset demonstrate the superiority of our approach, achieving over 85% accuracy and 88% weighted F1 score, outperforming benchmark classifiers.

Gian Marco Paldino, Gianluca Bontempi

Discovering causal relationships in complex multivariate time series is a fundamental scientific challenge. Traditional methods often falter, either by relying on restrictive linear assumptions or on conditional independence tests that become uninformative in the presence of intricate, non-linear dynamics. This paper proposes a new paradigm, shifting from statistical testing to pattern recognition. We hypothesize that a causal link creates a persistent and learnable asymmetry in the flow of information through a system's temporal graph, even when clear conditional independencies are obscured. We introduce Temporal Dependency to Causality (TD2C), a supervised learning framework that operationalizes this hypothesis. TD2C learns to recognize these complex causal signatures from a rich set of information-theoretic and statistical descriptors. Trained exclusively on a diverse collection of synthetic time series, TD2C demonstrates remarkable zero-shot generalization to unseen dynamics and established, realistic benchmarks. Our results show that TD2C achieves state-of-the-art performance, consistently outperforming established methods, particularly in high-dimensional and non-linear settings. By reframing the discovery problem, our work provides a robust and scalable new tool for uncovering causal structures in complex systems.