Bo Peng

Bo Peng, Jiayu Li, Selahattin Akkas et al.

Forecasting is challenging since uncertainty resulted from exogenous factors exists. This work investigates the rank position forecasting problem in car racing, which predicts the rank positions at the future laps for cars. Among the many factors that bring changes to the rank positions, pit stops are critical but irregular and rare. We found existing methods, including statistical models, machine learning regression models, and state-of-the-art deep forecasting model based on encoder-decoder architecture, all have limitations in the forecasting. By elaborative analysis of pit stops events, we propose a deep model, RankNet, with the cause effects decomposition that modeling the rank position sequence and pit stop events separately. It also incorporates probabilistic forecasting to model the uncertainty inside each sub-model. Through extensive experiments, RankNet demonstrates a strong performance improvement over the baselines, e.g., MAE improves more than 10% consistently, and is also more stable when adapting to unseen new data. Details of model optimization, performance profiling are presented. It is promising to provide useful forecasting tools for the car racing analysis and shine a light on solutions to similar challenging issues in general forecasting problems.

Bo Peng, Xiaohui Yao, Shannon L. Risacher et al.

Background:Cognitive assessments represent the most common clinical routine for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Given a large number of cognitive assessment tools and time-limited office visits, it is important to determine a proper set of cognitive tests for different subjects. Most current studies create guidelines of cognitive test selection for a targeted population, but they are not customized for each individual subject. In this manuscript, we develop a machine learning paradigm enabling personalized cognitive assessments prioritization. Method: We adapt a newly developed learning-to-rank approach PLTR to implement our paradigm. This method learns the latent scoring function that pushes the most effective cognitive assessments onto the top of the prioritization list. We also extend PLTR to better separate the most effective cognitive assessments and the less effective ones. Results: Our empirical study on the ADNI data shows that the proposed paradigm outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines on identifying and prioritizing individual-specific cognitive biomarkers. We conduct experiments in cross validation and level-out validation settings. In the two settings, our paradigm significantly outperforms the best baselines with improvement as much as 22.1% and 19.7%, respectively, on prioritizing cognitive features. Conclusions: The proposed paradigm achieves superior performance on prioritizing cognitive biomarkers. The cognitive biomarkers prioritized on top have great potentials to facilitate personalized diagnosis, disease subtyping, and ultimately precision medicine in AD.