Boyan Beronov

Chenwei Zhang, Jordan Lovrod, Boyan Beronov et al.

Visualization tools can help synthetic biologists and molecular programmers understand the complex reactive pathways of nucleic acid reactions, which can be designed for many potential applications and can be modelled using a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). Here we present ViDa, a new visualization approach for DNA reaction trajectories that uses a 2D embedding of the secondary structure state space underlying the CTMC model. To this end, we integrate a scattering transform of the secondary structure adjacency, a variational autoencoder, and a nonlinear dimensionality reduction method. We augment the training loss with domain-specific supervised terms that capture both thermodynamic and kinetic features. We assess ViDa on two well-studied DNA hybridization reactions. Our results demonstrate that the domain-specific features lead to significant quality improvements over the state-of-the-art in DNA state space visualization, successfully separating different folding pathways and thus providing useful insights into dominant reaction mechanisms.

Frank Wood, Andrew Warrington, Saeid Naderiparizi et al.

In this work we demonstrate how to automate parts of the infectious disease-control policy-making process via performing inference in existing epidemiological models. The kind of inference tasks undertaken include computing the posterior distribution over controllable, via direct policy-making choices, simulation model parameters that give rise to acceptable disease progression outcomes. Among other things, we illustrate the use of a probabilistic programming language that automates inference in existing simulators. Neither the full capabilities of this tool for automating inference nor its utility for planning is widely disseminated at the current time. Timely gains in understanding about how such simulation-based models and inference automation tools applied in support of policymaking could lead to less economically damaging policy prescriptions, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Trevor Campbell, Boyan Beronov

The proliferation of automated inference algorithms in Bayesian statistics has provided practitioners newfound access to fast, reproducible data analysis and powerful statistical models. Designing automated methods that are also both computationally scalable and theoretically sound, however, remains a significant challenge. Recent work on Bayesian coresets takes the approach of compressing the dataset before running a standard inference algorithm, providing both scalability and guarantees on posterior approximation error. But the automation of past coreset methods is limited because they depend on the availability of a reasonable coarse posterior approximation, which is difficult to specify in practice. In the present work we remove this requirement by formulating coreset construction as sparsity-constrained variational inference within an exponential family. This perspective leads to a novel construction via greedy optimization, and also provides a unifying information-geometric view of present and past methods. The proposed Riemannian coreset construction algorithm is fully automated, requiring no problem-specific inputs aside from the probabilistic model and dataset. In addition to being significantly easier to use than past methods, experiments demonstrate that past coreset constructions are fundamentally limited by the fixed coarse posterior approximation; in contrast, the proposed algorithm is able to continually improve the coreset, providing state-of-the-art Bayesian dataset summarization with orders-of-magnitude reduction in KL divergence to the exact posterior.