Theofanis Karaletsos

Charlotte Bunne, Yusuf Roohani, Yanay Rosen et al.

The cell is arguably the most fundamental unit of life and is central to understanding biology. Accurate modeling of cells is important for this understanding as well as for determining the root causes of disease. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), combined with the ability to generate large-scale experimental data, present novel opportunities to model cells. Here we propose a vision of leveraging advances in AI to construct virtual cells, high-fidelity simulations of cells and cellular systems under different conditions that are directly learned from biological data across measurements and scales. We discuss desired capabilities of such AI Virtual Cells, including generating universal representations of biological entities across scales, and facilitating interpretable in silico experiments to predict and understand their behavior using virtual instruments. We further address the challenges, opportunities and requirements to realize this vision including data needs, evaluation strategies, and community standards and engagement to ensure biological accuracy and broad utility. We envision a future where AI Virtual Cells help identify new drug targets, predict cellular responses to perturbations, as well as scale hypothesis exploration. With open science collaborations across the biomedical ecosystem that includes academia, philanthropy, and the biopharma and AI industries, a comprehensive predictive understanding of cell mechanisms and interactions has come into reach.

Yujia Bao, Srinivasan Sivanandan, Theofanis Karaletsos

Vision Transformer (ViT) has emerged as a powerful architecture in the realm of modern computer vision. However, its application in certain imaging fields, such as microscopy and satellite imaging, presents unique challenges. In these domains, images often contain multiple channels, each carrying semantically distinct and independent information. Furthermore, the model must demonstrate robustness to sparsity in input channels, as they may not be densely available during training or testing. In this paper, we propose a modification to the ViT architecture that enhances reasoning across the input channels and introduce Hierarchical Channel Sampling (HCS) as an additional regularization technique to ensure robustness when only partial channels are presented during test time. Our proposed model, ChannelViT, constructs patch tokens independently from each input channel and utilizes a learnable channel embedding that is added to the patch tokens, similar to positional embeddings. We evaluate the performance of ChannelViT on ImageNet, JUMP-CP (microscopy cell imaging), and So2Sat (satellite imaging). Our results show that ChannelViT outperforms ViT on classification tasks and generalizes well, even when a subset of input channels is used during testing. Across our experiments, HCS proves to be a powerful regularizer, independent of the architecture employed, suggesting itself as a straightforward technique for robust ViT training. Lastly, we find that ChannelViT generalizes effectively even when there is limited access to all channels during training, highlighting its potential for multi-channel imaging under real-world conditions with sparse sensors. Our code is available at https://github.com/insitro/ChannelViT.

Walter Nelson, Theofanis Karaletsos, Francesco Locatello

Recently, sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have emerged as an attractive tool for interpreting and interacting with representations in practical neural networks. While it is common empirical folklore, we also show theoretically that SAEs are highly unstable: different training runs are likely to produce different concept dictionaries and sparse codes. We characterize the model properties that hinder the stability of real-world SAEs, and address each of these problems through minimal changes to the architecture and training procedure. Together, these changes yield two versions of an \textbf{i}dentifiable SAE (iSAE), a variant of the standard TopK SAE with lower reconstruction error and improved stability. We explain this improvement theoretically by connecting SAEs with traditional dictionary learning approaches, and show that the dictionaries learned in practice satisfy an approximate restricted isometry condition, rendering the corresponding sparse codes in those models near-identifiable.

Felix Draxler, Justus Will, Farrin Marouf Sofian et al.

Autoregressive decoding in language models is inherently slow, generating only one token per forward pass. We propose Parallel Token Prediction (PTP), a general-purpose framework for predicting multiple tokens in a single model call. PTP moves the source of randomness from post-hoc sampling to random input variables, making future tokens deterministic functions of those inputs and thus jointly predictable in a single forward pass. We prove that a single PTP call can represent arbitrary dependencies between tokens. PTP is trained by distilling an existing model or through inverse autoregressive training without a teacher. Experimentally, PTP achieves a 2.4x speedup on a diverse-task speculative decoding benchmark. We provide code and checkpoints at https://github.com/mandt-lab/ptp.

Michael Bereket, Theofanis Karaletsos

Generative models of observations under interventions have been a vibrant topic of interest across machine learning and the sciences in recent years. For example, in drug discovery, there is a need to model the effects of diverse interventions on cells in order to characterize unknown biological mechanisms of action. We propose the Sparse Additive Mechanism Shift Variational Autoencoder, SAMS-VAE, to combine compositionality, disentanglement, and interpretability for perturbation models. SAMS-VAE models the latent state of a perturbed sample as the sum of a local latent variable capturing sample-specific variation and sparse global variables of latent intervention effects. Crucially, SAMS-VAE sparsifies these global latent variables for individual perturbations to identify disentangled, perturbation-specific latent subspaces that are flexibly composable. We evaluate SAMS-VAE both quantitatively and qualitatively on a range of tasks using two popular single cell sequencing datasets. In order to measure perturbation-specific model-properties, we also introduce a framework for evaluation of perturbation models based on average treatment effects with links to posterior predictive checks. SAMS-VAE outperforms comparable models in terms of generalization across in-distribution and out-of-distribution tasks, including a combinatorial reasoning task under resource paucity, and yields interpretable latent structures which correlate strongly to known biological mechanisms. Our results suggest SAMS-VAE is an interesting addition to the modeling toolkit for machine learning-driven scientific discovery.

Kirill Shmilovich, Benson Chen, Theofanis Karaletsos et al.

DNA-Encoded Library (DEL) technology has enabled significant advances in hit identification by enabling efficient testing of combinatorially-generated molecular libraries. DEL screens measure protein binding affinity though sequencing reads of molecules tagged with unique DNA-barcodes that survive a series of selection experiments. Computational models have been deployed to learn the latent binding affinities that are correlated to the sequenced count data; however, this correlation is often obfuscated by various sources of noise introduced in its complicated data-generation process. In order to denoise DEL count data and screen for molecules with good binding affinity, computational models require the correct assumptions in their modeling structure to capture the correct signals underlying the data. Recent advances in DEL models have focused on probabilistic formulations of count data, but existing approaches have thus far been limited to only utilizing 2-D molecule-level representations. We introduce a new paradigm, DEL-Dock, that combines ligand-based descriptors with 3-D spatial information from docked protein-ligand complexes. 3-D spatial information allows our model to learn over the actual binding modality rather than using only structured-based information of the ligand. We show that our model is capable of effectively denoising DEL count data to predict molecule enrichment scores that are better correlated with experimental binding affinity measurements compared to prior works. Moreover, by learning over a collection of docked poses we demonstrate that our model, trained only on DEL data, implicitly learns to perform good docking pose selection without requiring external supervision from expensive-to-source protein crystal structures.

Dionysis Manousakas, Hippolyt Ritter, Theofanis Karaletsos

Recent advances in coreset methods have shown that a selection of representative datapoints can replace massive volumes of data for Bayesian inference, preserving the relevant statistical information and significantly accelerating subsequent downstream tasks. Existing variational coreset constructions rely on either selecting subsets of the observed datapoints, or jointly performing approximate inference and optimizing pseudodata in the observed space akin to inducing points methods in Gaussian Processes. So far, both approaches are limited by complexities in evaluating their objectives for general purpose models, and require generating samples from a typically intractable posterior over the coreset throughout inference and testing. In this work, we present a black-box variational inference framework for coresets that overcomes these constraints and enables principled application of variational coresets to intractable models, such as Bayesian neural networks. We apply our techniques to supervised learning problems, and compare them with existing approaches in the literature for data summarization and inference.

Walter Nelson, Marco Fumero, Theofanis Karaletsos et al.

Representation learning models exhibit a surprising stability in their internal representations. Whereas most prior work treats this stability as a single property, we formalize it as two distinct concepts: statistical identifiability (consistency of representations across runs) and structural identifiability (alignment of representations with some unobserved ground truth). Recognizing that perfect pointwise identifiability is generally unrealistic for modern representation learning models, we propose new model-agnostic definitions of statistical and structural near-identifiability of representations up to some error tolerance $ε$. Leveraging these definitions, we prove a statistical $ε$-near-identifiability result for the representations of models with nonlinear decoders, generalizing existing identifiability theory beyond last-layer representations in e.g. generative pre-trained transformers (GPTs) to near-identifiability of the intermediate representations of a broad class of models including (masked) autoencoders (MAEs) and supervised learners. Although these weaker assumptions confer weaker identifiability, we show that independent components analysis (ICA) can resolve much of the remaining linear ambiguity for this class of models, and validate and measure our near-identifiability claims empirically. With additional assumptions on the data-generating process, statistical identifiability extends to structural identifiability, yielding a simple and practical recipe for disentanglement: ICA post-processing of latent representations. On synthetic benchmarks, this approach achieves state-of-the-art disentanglement using a vanilla autoencoder. With a foundation model-scale MAE for cell microscopy, it disentangles biological variation from technical batch effects, substantially improving downstream generalization.

Daniel Geyfman, Felix Draxler, Jan Groeneveld et al.

Test-time guidance is a widely used mechanism for steering pretrained diffusion models toward outcomes specified by a reward function. Existing approaches, however, focus on maximizing reward rather than sampling from the true Bayesian posterior, leading to miscalibrated inference. In this work, we show that common test-time guidance methods do not recover the correct posterior distribution and identify the structural approximations responsible for this failure. We then propose consistent alternative estimators that enable calibrated sampling from the Bayesian posterior. We significantly outperform previous methods on a set of Bayesian inference tasks, and match state-of-the-art in black hole image reconstruction.

Kushagra Pandey, Farrin Marouf Sofian, Felix Draxler et al.

Diffusion models exhibit excellent sample quality, but existing guidance methods often require additional model training or are limited to specific tasks. We revisit guidance in diffusion models from the perspective of variational inference and control, introducing Diffusion Trajectory Matching (DTM) that enables guiding pretrained diffusion trajectories to satisfy a terminal cost. DTM unifies a broad class of guidance methods and enables novel instantiations. We introduce a new method within this framework that achieves state-of-the-art results on several linear, non-linear, and blind inverse problems without requiring additional model training or specificity to pixel or latent space diffusion models. Our code will be available at https://github.com/czi-ai/oc-guidance

Giovanni Palla, Sudarshan Babu, Payam Dibaeinia et al.

Computational modeling of single-cell gene expression is crucial for understanding cellular processes, but generating realistic expression profiles remains a major challenge. This difficulty arises from the count nature of gene expression data and complex latent dependencies among genes. Existing generative models often impose artificial gene orderings or rely on shallow neural network architectures. We introduce a scalable latent diffusion model for single-cell gene expression data, which we refer to as scLDM, that respects the fundamental exchangeability property of the data. Our VAE uses fixed-size latent variables leveraging a unified Multi-head Cross-Attention Block (MCAB) architecture, which serves dual roles: permutation-invariant pooling in the encoder and permutation-equivariant unpooling in the decoder. We enhance this framework by replacing the Gaussian prior with a latent diffusion model using Diffusion Transformers and linear interpolants, enabling high-quality generation with multi-conditional classifier-free guidance. We show its superior performance in a variety of experiments for both observational and perturbational single-cell data, as well as downstream tasks like cell-level classification.

Berker Demirel, Marco Fumero, Theofanis Karaletsos et al.

Simulating in silico cellular responses to interventions is a promising direction to accelerate high-content image-based assays, critical for advancing drug discovery and gene editing. To support this, we introduce MorphGen, a state-of-the-art diffusion-based generative model for fluorescent microscopy that enables controllable generation across multiple cell types and perturbations. To capture biologically meaningful patterns consistent with known cellular morphologies, MorphGen is trained with an alignment loss to match its representations to the phenotypic embeddings of OpenPhenom, a state-of-the-art biological foundation model. Unlike prior approaches that compress multichannel stains into RGB images -- thus sacrificing organelle-specific detail -- MorphGen generates the complete set of fluorescent channels jointly, preserving per-organelle structures and enabling a fine-grained morphological analysis that is essential for biological interpretation. We demonstrate biological consistency with real images via CellProfiler features, and MorphGen attains an FID score over 35% lower than the prior state-of-the-art MorphoDiff, which only generates RGB images for a single cell type. Code is available at https://github.com/czi-ai/MorphGen.

Hippolyt Ritter, Theofanis Karaletsos

We introduce TyXe, a Bayesian neural network library built on top of Pytorch and Pyro. Our leading design principle is to cleanly separate architecture, prior, inference and likelihood specification, allowing for a flexible workflow where users can quickly iterate over combinations of these components. In contrast to existing packages TyXe does not implement any layer classes, and instead relies on architectures defined in generic Pytorch code. TyXe then provides modular choices for canonical priors, variational guides, inference techniques, and layer selections for a Bayesian treatment of the specified architecture. Sampling tricks for variance reduction, such as local reparameterization or flipout, are implemented as effect handlers, which can be applied independently of other specifications. We showcase the ease of use of TyXe to explore Bayesian versions of popular models from various libraries: toy regression with a pure Pytorch neural network; large-scale image classification with torchvision ResNets; graph neural networks based on DGL; and Neural Radiance Fields built on top of Pytorch3D. Finally, we provide convenient abstractions for variational continual learning. In all cases the change from a deterministic to a Bayesian neural network comes with minimal modifications to existing code, offering a broad range of researchers and practitioners alike practical access to uncertainty estimation techniques. The library is available at https://github.com/TyXe-BDL/TyXe.

Theodore Papamarkou, Maria Skoularidou, Konstantina Palla et al.

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

Theodore Papamarkou, Pierre Alquier, Matthias Bauer et al.

LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to consult, or how many resources to invest. While the usefulness and feasibility of Bayesian approaches remain unclear for LLM inference, this position paper argues that the control layer of an agentic AI system (that orchestrates LLMs and tools) is a clear case where Bayesian principles should shine. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for agentic systems that can help to maintain beliefs over task-relevant latent quantities, to update these beliefs from observed agentic and human-AI interactions, and to choose actions. Making LLMs themselves explicitly Bayesian belief-updating engines remains computationally intensive and conceptually nontrivial as a general modeling target. In contrast, this paper argues that coherent decision-making requires Bayesian principles at the orchestration level of the agentic system, not necessarily the LLM agent parameters. This paper articulates practical properties for Bayesian control that fit modern agentic AI systems and human-AI collaboration, and provides concrete examples and design patterns to illustrate how calibrated beliefs and utility-aware policies can improve agentic AI orchestration.

Sunil Mohan, Theofanis Karaletsos

Two scientific fields showing increasing interest in pre-trained large language models (LLMs) are drug development / repurposing, and personalized medicine. For both, LLMs have to demonstrate factual knowledge as well as a deep understanding of drug mechanisms, so they can recall and reason about relevant knowledge in novel situations. Drug mechanisms of action are described as a series of interactions between biomedical entities, which interlink into one or more chains directed from the drug to the targeted disease. Composing the effects of the interactions in a candidate chain leads to an inference about whether the drug might be useful or not for that disease. We introduce a dataset that evaluates LLMs on both factual knowledge of known mechanisms, and their ability to reason about them under novel situations, presented as counterfactuals that the models are unlikely to have seen during training. Using this dataset, we show that o4-mini outperforms the 4o, o3, and o3-mini models from OpenAI, and the recent small Qwen3-4B-thinking model closely matches o4-mini's performance, even outperforming it in some cases. We demonstrate that the open world setting for reasoning tasks, which requires the model to recall relevant knowledge, is more challenging than the closed world setting where the needed factual knowledge is provided. We also show that counterfactuals affecting internal links in the reasoning chain present a much harder task than those affecting a link from the drug mentioned in the prompt.

Jan-Philipp von Bassewitz, Adeel Pervez, Marco Fumero et al.

Modeling the dynamics of cellular differentiation is fundamental to advancing the understanding and treatment of diseases associated with this process, such as cancer. With the rapid growth of single-cell datasets, this has also become a particularly promising and active domain for machine learning. Current state-of-the-art models, however, rely on computationally expensive optimal transport preprocessing and multi-stage training, while also not discovering explicit gene interactions. To address these challenges we propose Cell-Mechanistic Neural Networks (Cell-MNN), an encoder-decoder architecture whose latent representation is a locally linearized ODE governing the dynamics of cellular evolution from stem to tissue cells. Cell-MNN is fully end-to-end (besides a standard PCA pre-processing) and its ODE representation explicitly learns biologically consistent and interpretable gene interactions. Empirically, we show that Cell-MNN achieves competitive performance on single-cell benchmarks, surpasses state-of-the-art baselines in scaling to larger datasets and joint training across multiple datasets, while also learning interpretable gene interactions that we validate against the TRRUST database of gene interactions.

Yujia Bao, Theofanis Karaletsos

We introduce Contextual Vision Transformers (ContextViT), a method designed to generate robust image representations for datasets experiencing shifts in latent factors across various groups. Derived from the concept of in-context learning, ContextViT incorporates an additional context token to encapsulate group-specific information. This integration allows the model to adjust the image representation in accordance with the group-specific context. Specifically, for a given input image, ContextViT maps images with identical group membership into this context token, which is appended to the input image tokens. Additionally, we introduce a context inference network to predict such tokens on-the-fly, given a batch of samples from the group. This enables ContextViT to adapt to new testing distributions during inference time. We demonstrate the efficacy of ContextViT across a wide range of applications. In supervised fine-tuning, we show that augmenting pre-trained ViTs with our proposed context conditioning mechanism results in consistent improvements in out-of-distribution generalization on iWildCam and FMoW. We also investigate self-supervised representation learning with ContextViT. Our experiments on the Camelyon17 pathology imaging benchmark and the JUMP-CP microscopy imaging benchmark demonstrate that ContextViT excels in learning stable image featurizations amidst distribution shift, consistently outperforming its ViT counterpart.

Ousmane Amadou Dia, Theofanis Karaletsos, Caner Hazirbas et al.

The susceptibility of deep learning models to adversarial perturbations has stirred renewed attention in adversarial examples resulting in a number of attacks. However, most of these attacks fail to encompass a large spectrum of adversarial perturbations that are imperceptible to humans. In this paper, we present localized uncertainty attacks, a novel class of threat models against deterministic and stochastic classifiers. Under this threat model, we create adversarial examples by perturbing only regions in the inputs where a classifier is uncertain. To find such regions, we utilize the predictive uncertainty of the classifier when the classifier is stochastic or, we learn a surrogate model to amortize the uncertainty when it is deterministic. Unlike $\ell_p$ ball or functional attacks which perturb inputs indiscriminately, our targeted changes can be less perceptible. When considered under our threat model, these attacks still produce strong adversarial examples; with the examples retaining a greater degree of similarity with the inputs.

Yuanqing Wang, Theofanis Karaletsos

Graph neural networks (GNNs) manifest pathologies including over-smoothing and limited discriminating power as a result of suboptimally expressive aggregating mechanisms. We herein present a unifying framework for stochastic aggregation (STAG) in GNNs, where noise is (adaptively) injected into the aggregation process from the neighborhood to form node embeddings. We provide theoretical arguments that STAG models, with little overhead, remedy both of the aforementioned problems. In addition to fixed-noise models, we also propose probabilistic versions of STAG models and a variational inference framework to learn the noise posterior. We conduct illustrative experiments clearly targeting oversmoothing and multiset aggregation limitations. Furthermore, STAG enhances general performance of GNNs demonstrated by competitive performance in common citation and molecule graph benchmark datasets.

Sanyam Kapoor, Theofanis Karaletsos, Thang D. Bui

Through sequential construction of posteriors on observing data online, Bayes' theorem provides a natural framework for continual learning. We develop Variational Auto-Regressive Gaussian Processes (VAR-GPs), a principled posterior updating mechanism to solve sequential tasks in continual learning. By relying on sparse inducing point approximations for scalable posteriors, we propose a novel auto-regressive variational distribution which reveals two fruitful connections to existing results in Bayesian inference, expectation propagation and orthogonal inducing points. Mean predictive entropy estimates show VAR-GPs prevent catastrophic forgetting, which is empirically supported by strong performance on modern continual learning benchmarks against competitive baselines. A thorough ablation study demonstrates the efficacy of our modeling choices.

Theofanis Karaletsos, Thang D. Bui

Probabilistic neural networks are typically modeled with independent weight priors, which do not capture weight correlations in the prior and do not provide a parsimonious interface to express properties in function space. A desirable class of priors would represent weights compactly, capture correlations between weights, facilitate calibrated reasoning about uncertainty, and allow inclusion of prior knowledge about the function space such as periodicity or dependence on contexts such as inputs. To this end, this paper introduces two innovations: (i) a Gaussian process-based hierarchical model for network weights based on unit embeddings that can flexibly encode correlated weight structures, and (ii) input-dependent versions of these weight priors that can provide convenient ways to regularize the function space through the use of kernels defined on contextual inputs. We show these models provide desirable test-time uncertainty estimates on out-of-distribution data, demonstrate cases of modeling inductive biases for neural networks with kernels which help both interpolation and extrapolation from training data, and demonstrate competitive predictive performance on an active learning benchmark.

Christian F. Perez, Felipe Petroski Such, Theofanis Karaletsos

There is broad interest in creating RL agents that can solve many (related) tasks and adapt to new tasks and environments after initial training. Model-based RL leverages learned surrogate models that describe dynamics and rewards of individual tasks, such that planning in a good surrogate can lead to good control of the true system. Rather than solving each task individually from scratch, hierarchical models can exploit the fact that tasks are often related by (unobserved) causal factors of variation in order to achieve efficient generalization, as in learning how the mass of an item affects the force required to lift it can generalize to previously unobserved masses. We propose Generalized Hidden Parameter MDPs (GHP-MDPs) that describe a family of MDPs where both dynamics and reward can change as a function of hidden parameters that vary across tasks. The GHP-MDP augments model-based RL with latent variables that capture these hidden parameters, facilitating transfer across tasks. We also explore a variant of the model that incorporates explicit latent structure mirroring the causal factors of variation across tasks (for instance: agent properties, environmental factors, and goals). We experimentally demonstrate state-of-the-art performance and sample-efficiency on a new challenging MuJoCo task using reward and dynamics latent spaces, while beating a previous state-of-the-art baseline with $>10\times$ less data. Using test-time inference of the latent variables, our approach generalizes in a single episode to novel combinations of dynamics and reward, and to novel rewards.

Xinyu Hu, Paul Szerlip, Theofanis Karaletsos et al.

A regression-based BNN model is proposed to predict spatiotemporal quantities like hourly rider demand with calibrated uncertainties. The main contributions of this paper are (i) A feed-forward deterministic neural network (DetNN) architecture that predicts cyclical time series data with sensitivity to anomalous forecasting events; (ii) A Bayesian framework applying SVGD to train large neural networks for such tasks, capable of producing time series predictions as well as measures of uncertainty surrounding the predictions. Experiments show that the proposed BNN reduces average estimation error by 10% across 8 U.S. cities compared to a fine-tuned multilayer perceptron (MLP), and 4% better than the same network architecture trained without SVGD.

Christian F. Perez, Felipe Petroski Such, Theofanis Karaletsos

Traditional model-based RL relies on hand-specified or learned models of transition dynamics of the environment. These methods are sample efficient and facilitate learning in the real world but fail to generalize to subtle variations in the underlying dynamics, e.g., due to differences in mass, friction, or actuators across robotic agents or across time. We propose using variational inference to learn an explicit latent representation of unknown environment properties that accelerates learning and facilitates generalization on novel environments at test time. We use Online Bayesian Inference of these learned latents to rapidly adapt online to changes in environments without retaining large replay buffers of recent data. Combined with a neural network ensemble that models dynamics and captures uncertainty over dynamics, our approach demonstrates positive transfer during training and online adaptation on the continuous control task HalfCheetah.

Eli Bingham, Jonathan P. Chen, Martin Jankowiak et al.

Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accelerated deep learning framework. To accommodate complex or model-specific algorithmic behavior, Pyro leverages Poutine, a library of composable building blocks for modifying the behavior of probabilistic programs.

Theofanis Karaletsos, Peter Dayan, Zoubin Ghahramani

Existing Bayesian treatments of neural networks are typically characterized by weak prior and approximate posterior distributions according to which all the weights are drawn independently. Here, we consider a richer prior distribution in which units in the network are represented by latent variables, and the weights between units are drawn conditionally on the values of the collection of those variables. This allows rich correlations between related weights, and can be seen as realizing a function prior with a Bayesian complexity regularizer ensuring simple solutions. We illustrate the resulting meta-representations and representations, elucidating the power of this prior.

Martin Jankowiak, Theofanis Karaletsos

We exploit the link between the transport equation and derivatives of expectations to construct efficient pathwise gradient estimators for multivariate distributions. We focus on two main threads. First, we use null solutions of the transport equation to construct adaptive control variates that can be used to construct gradient estimators with reduced variance. Second, we consider the case of multivariate mixture distributions. In particular we show how to compute pathwise derivatives for mixtures of multivariate Normal distributions with arbitrary means and diagonal covariances. We demonstrate in a variety of experiments in the context of variational inference that our gradient estimators can outperform other methods, especially in high dimensions.

Jan-Matthis Lueckmann, Giacomo Bassetto, Theofanis Karaletsos et al.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to learn synthetic likelihoods on simulated data -- both local emulators which approximate the likelihood for specific observed data, as well as global ones which are applicable to a range of data. Simulations are chosen adaptively using an acquisition function which takes into account uncertainty about either the posterior distribution of interest, or the parameters of the emulator. Our approach does not rely on user-defined rejection thresholds or distance functions. We illustrate inference with emulator networks on synthetic examples and on a biophysical neuron model, and show that emulators allow accurate and efficient inference even on high-dimensional problems which are challenging for conventional ABC approaches.

Theofanis Karaletsos

Bayesian inference on structured models typically relies on the ability to infer posterior distributions of underlying hidden variables. However, inference in implicit models or complex posterior distributions is hard. A popular tool for learning implicit models are generative adversarial networks (GANs) which learn parameters of generators by fooling discriminators. Typically, GANs are considered to be models themselves and are not understood in the context of inference. Current techniques rely on inefficient global discrimination of joint distributions to perform learning, or only consider discriminating a single output variable. We overcome these limitations by treating GANs as a basis for likelihood-free inference in generative models and generalize them to Bayesian posterior inference over factor graphs. We propose local learning rules based on message passing minimizing a global divergence criterion involving cooperating local adversaries used to sidestep explicit likelihood evaluations. This allows us to compose models and yields a unified inference and learning framework for adversarial learning. Our framework treats model specification and inference separately and facilitates richly structured models within the family of Directed Acyclic Graphs, including components such as intractable likelihoods, non-differentiable models, simulators and generally cumbersome models. A key result of our treatment is the insight that Bayesian inference on structured models can be performed only with sampling and discrimination when using nonparametric variational families, without access to explicit distributions. As a side-result, we discuss the link to likelihood maximization. These approaches hold promise to be useful in the toolbox of probabilistic modelers and enrich the gamut of current probabilistic programming applications.

Andreas Veit, Serge Belongie, Theofanis Karaletsos

What makes images similar? To measure the similarity between images, they are typically embedded in a feature-vector space, in which their distance preserve the relative dissimilarity. However, when learning such similarity embeddings the simplifying assumption is commonly made that images are only compared to one unique measure of similarity. A main reason for this is that contradicting notions of similarities cannot be captured in a single space. To address this shortcoming, we propose Conditional Similarity Networks (CSNs) that learn embeddings differentiated into semantically distinct subspaces that capture the different notions of similarities. CSNs jointly learn a disentangled embedding where features for different similarities are encoded in separate dimensions as well as masks that select and reweight relevant dimensions to induce a subspace that encodes a specific similarity notion. We show that our approach learns interpretable image representations with visually relevant semantic subspaces. Further, when evaluating on triplet questions from multiple similarity notions our model even outperforms the accuracy obtained by training individual specialized networks for each notion separately.

Stephanie L. Hyland, Theofanis Karaletsos, Gunnar Rätsch

Identifying relationships between concepts is a key aspect of scientific knowledge synthesis. Finding these links often requires a researcher to laboriously search through scien- tific papers and databases, as the size of these resources grows ever larger. In this paper we describe how distributional semantics can be used to unify structured knowledge graphs with unstructured text to predict new relationships between medical concepts, using a probabilistic generative model. Our approach is also designed to ameliorate data sparsity and scarcity issues in the medical domain, which make language modelling more challenging. Specifically, we integrate the medical relational database (SemMedDB) with text from electronic health records (EHRs) to perform knowledge graph completion. We further demonstrate the ability of our model to predict relationships between tokens not appearing in the relational database.

Stephanie L. Hyland, Theofanis Karaletsos, Gunnar Rätsch

Neural language models are a powerful tool to embed words into semantic vector spaces. However, learning such models generally relies on the availability of abundant and diverse training examples. In highly specialised domains this requirement may not be met due to difficulties in obtaining a large corpus, or the limited range of expression in average use. Such domains may encode prior knowledge about entities in a knowledge base or ontology. We propose a generative model which integrates evidence from diverse data sources, enabling the sharing of semantic information. We achieve this by generalising the concept of co-occurrence from distributional semantics to include other relationships between entities or words, which we model as affine transformations on the embedding space. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by outperforming recent models on a link prediction task and demonstrating its ability to profit from partially or fully unobserved data training labels. We further demonstrate the usefulness of learning from different data sources with overlapping vocabularies.

Theofanis Karaletsos, Serge Belongie, Gunnar Rätsch

Representation learning systems typically rely on massive amounts of labeled data in order to be trained to high accuracy. Recently, high-dimensional parametric models like neural networks have succeeded in building rich representations using either compressive, reconstructive or supervised criteria. However, the semantic structure inherent in observations is oftentimes lost in the process. Human perception excels at understanding semantics but cannot always be expressed in terms of labels. Thus, \emph{oracles} or \emph{human-in-the-loop systems}, for example crowdsourcing, are often employed to generate similarity constraints using an implicit similarity function encoded in human perception. In this work we propose to combine \emph{generative unsupervised feature learning} with a \emph{probabilistic treatment of oracle information like triplets} in order to transfer implicit privileged oracle knowledge into explicit nonlinear Bayesian latent factor models of the observations. We use a fast variational algorithm to learn the joint model and demonstrate applicability to a well-known image dataset. We show how implicit triplet information can provide rich information to learn representations that outperform previous metric learning approaches as well as generative models without this side-information in a variety of predictive tasks. In addition, we illustrate that the proposed approach compartmentalizes the latent spaces semantically which allows interpretation of the latent variables.

Theofanis Karaletsos, Gunnar Rätsch

A recurring problem when building probabilistic latent variable models is regularization and model selection, for instance, the choice of the dimensionality of the latent space. In the context of belief networks with latent variables, this problem has been adressed with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) employing Monte Carlo inference. We present a variational inference approach to ARD for Deep Generative Models using doubly stochastic variational inference to provide fast and scalable learning. We show empirical results on a standard dataset illustrating the effects of contracting the latent space automatically. We show that the resulting latent representations are significantly more compact without loss of expressive power of the learned models.