Thomas L. Lee

Thomas L. Lee, Amos Storkey

Work on continual learning (CL) has thus far largely focused on the problems arising from shifts in the data distribution. However, CL can be decomposed into two sub-problems: (a) shifts in the data distribution, and (b) dealing with the fact that the data is split into chunks and so only a part of the data is available to be trained on at any point in time. In this work, we look at the latter sub-problem, the chunking of data. We show that chunking is an important part of CL, accounting for around half of the performance drop from offline learning in our experiments. Furthermore, our results reveal that current CL algorithms do not address the chunking sub-problem, only performing as well as plain SGD training when there is no shift in the data distribution. Therefore, we show that chunking is both an important and currently unaddressed sub-problem and until it is addressed CL methods will be capped in performance. Additionally, we analyse why performance drops when learning occurs on identically distributed chunks of data, and find that forgetting, which is often seen to be a problem due to distribution shift, still arises and is a significant problem. We also show that performance on the chunking sub-problem can be increased and that this performance transfers to the full CL setting, where there is distribution shift. Hence, we argue that work on chunking can help advance CL in general.

Thomas L. Lee, Edoardo M. Ponti, Amos Storkey

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have become increasingly popular for zero-shot forecasting. However, for a new time series domain not fully covered by the pretraining set, performance can suffer. Therefore, when a practitioner cares about a new domain and has access to a set of related datasets, the question arises: how best to fine-tune a TSFM to improve zero-shot forecasting? A typical approach to this type of problem is to fine-tune a LoRA module on all datasets or separately on each dataset. Tuning a separate module on each dataset allows for the specialisation of the TSFM to different types of data distribution, by selecting differing combinations of per-dataset modules for different time series contexts. However, we find that, using per-dataset modules might not be optimal, since a time series dataset can contain data from several types of distributions, i.e. sub-domains. This can be due to the distribution shifting or having differing distributions for different dimensions of the time series. Hence, we propose MixFT which re-divides the data using Bayesian mixtures into sets that best represent the sub-domains present in the data, and fine-tunes separately on each of these sets. This re-division of the data ensures that each set is more homogeneous, leading to fine-tuned modules focused on specific sub-domains. Our experiments show that MixFT performs better than per-dataset methods and when fine-tuning a single module on all the data. This suggests that by re-partitioning the data to represent sub-domains we can better specialise TSFMs to improve zero-shot forecasting.

Ben Sanati, Thomas L. Lee, Trevor McInroe et al.

A fundamental challenge in developing general learning algorithms is their tendency to forget past knowledge when adapting to new data. Addressing this problem requires a principled understanding of forgetting; yet, despite decades of study, no unified definition has emerged that provides insights into the underlying dynamics of learning. We propose an algorithm- and task-agnostic theory that characterises forgetting as a lack of self-consistency in a learner's predictive distribution over future experiences, manifesting as a loss of predictive information. Our theory naturally yields a general measure of an algorithm's propensity to forget. To validate the theory, we design a comprehensive set of experiments that span classification, regression, generative modelling, and reinforcement learning. We empirically demonstrate how forgetting is present across all learning settings and plays a significant role in determining learning efficiency. Together, these results establish a principled understanding of forgetting and lay the foundation for analysing and improving the information retention capabilities of general learning algorithms.

William Toner, Thomas L. Lee, Artjom Joosen et al.

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. FMs are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series domains, including cloud data. In this work we investigate this claim, exploring the effectiveness of FMs on cloud data. We demonstrate that many well-known FMs fail to generate meaningful or accurate zero-shot forecasts in this setting. We support this claim empirically, showing that FMs are outperformed consistently by simple linear baselines. We also illustrate a number of interesting pathologies, including instances where FMs suddenly output seemingly erratic, random-looking forecasts. Our results suggest a widespread failure of FMs to model cloud data.

Thomas L. Lee, William Toner, Rajkarn Singh et al.

Foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a promising approach for time series forecasting. While effective, FMs typically remain fixed during deployment due to the high computational costs of learning them online. Consequently, deployed FMs fail to adapt their forecasts to current data characteristics, despite the availability of online feedback from newly arriving data. This raises the question of whether FM performance can be enhanced by the efficient usage of this feedback. We propose ELF to answer this question. ELF is a lightweight mechanism for the online adaption of FM forecasts in response to online feedback. ELF consists of two parts: a) the ELF-Forecaster which is used to learn the current data distribution; and b) the ELF-Weighter which is used to combine the forecasts of the FM and the ELF-Forecaster. We evaluate the performance of ELF in conjunction with several recent FMs across a suite of standard time series datasets. In all of our experiments we find that using ELF improves performance. This work demonstrates how efficient usage of online feedback can be used to improve FM forecasts.

Benjamin R. Redhead, Thomas L. Lee, Peng Gu et al.

Probabilistic forecasting is increasingly critical across high-stakes domains, from finance and epidemiology to climate science. However, current evaluation frameworks lack a consensus metric and suffer from two critical flaws: they often assume independence across time steps or variables, and they demonstrably lack sensitivity to tail events, the very occurrences that are most pivotal in real-world decision-making. To address these limitations, we propose two kernel-based metrics: the signature maximum mean discrepancy (Sig-MMD) and our novel censored Sig-MMD (CSig-MMD). By leveraging the signature kernel, these metrics capture complex inter-variate and inter-temporal dependencies and remain robust to missing data. Furthermore, CSig-MMD introduces a censoring scheme that prioritizes a forecaster's capability to predict tail events while strictly maintaining properness, a vital property for a good scoring rule. These metrics enable a more reliable evaluation of direct multi-step forecasting, facilitating the development of more robust probabilistic algorithms.

Thomas L. Lee, Sigrid Passano Hellan, Linus Ericsson et al.

In continual learning (CL) -- where a learner trains on a stream of data -- standard hyperparameter optimisation (HPO) cannot be applied, as a learner does not have access to all of the data at the same time. This has prompted the development of CL-specific HPO frameworks. The most popular way to tune hyperparameters in CL is to repeatedly train over the whole data stream with different hyperparameter settings. However, this end-of-training HPO is unusable in practice since a learner can only see the stream once. Hence, there is an open question: what HPO framework should a practitioner use for a CL problem in reality? This paper looks at this question by comparing several realistic HPO frameworks. We find that none of the HPO frameworks considered, including end-of-training HPO, perform consistently better than the rest on popular CL benchmarks. We therefore arrive at a twofold conclusion: a) to be able to discriminate between HPO frameworks there is a need to move beyond the current most commonly used CL benchmarks, and b) on the popular CL benchmarks examined, a CL practitioner should use a realistic HPO framework and can select it based on factors separate from performance, for example compute efficiency.

Thomas L. Lee, Amos Storkey

For models consisting of a classifier in some representation space, learning online from a non-stationary data stream often necessitates changes in the representation. So, the question arises of what is the best way to adapt the classifier to shifts in representation. Current methods only slowly change the classifier to representation shift, introducing noise into learning as the classifier is misaligned to the representation. We propose DeepCCG, an empirical Bayesian approach to solve this problem. DeepCCG works by updating the posterior of a class conditional Gaussian classifier such that the classifier adapts in one step to representation shift. The use of a class conditional Gaussian classifier also enables DeepCCG to use a log conditional marginal likelihood loss to update the representation. To perform the update to the classifier and representation, DeepCCG maintains a fixed number of examples in memory and so a key part of DeepCCG is selecting what examples to store, choosing the subset that minimises the KL divergence between the true posterior and the posterior induced by the subset. We explore the behaviour of DeepCCG in online continual learning (CL), demonstrating that it performs well against a spectrum of online CL methods and that it reduces the change in performance due to representation shift.