Alexey Yermakov

Philippe Martin Wyder, Judah Goldfeder, Alexey Yermakov et al.

Machine learning (ML) is transforming modeling and control in the physical, engineering, and biological sciences. However, rapid development has outpaced the creation of standardized, objective benchmarks - leading to weak baselines, reporting bias, and inconsistent evaluations across methods. This undermines reproducibility, misguides resource allocation, and obscures scientific progress. To address this, we propose a Common Task Framework (CTF) for scientific machine learning. The CTF features a curated set of datasets and task-specific metrics spanning forecasting, state reconstruction, and generalization under realistic constraints, including noise and limited data. Inspired by the success of CTFs in fields like natural language processing and computer vision, our framework provides a structured, rigorous foundation for head-to-head evaluation of diverse algorithms. As a first step, we benchmark methods on two canonical nonlinear systems: Kuramoto-Sivashinsky and Lorenz. These results illustrate the utility of the CTF in revealing method strengths, limitations, and suitability for specific classes of problems and diverse objectives. Next, we are launching a competition around a global real world sea surface temperature dataset with a true holdout dataset to foster community engagement. Our long-term vision is to replace ad hoc comparisons with standardized evaluations on hidden test sets that raise the bar for rigor and reproducibility in scientific ML.

Stefano Riva, Carolina Introini, Antonio Cammi et al.

The demand for clean energy is ever increasing, with new nuclear technologies presenting a complementary solution to renewable energies. However, designing and operating these systems is exceptionally difficult, given the complexity of the physical phenomena that interact to form the system dynamics. While high-fidelity simulations help to understand the non-linear, multi-physics interactions within a reactor, they are computationally expensive and rarely suitable for real-time applications. Furthermore, model-based approaches are inherently sensitive to simplifying assumptions required to derive their governing equations and parameters, leading to inevitable discrepancies with real-world measurements. In contrast, Machine Learning (ML) methods have the potential to generate reliable surrogate models which may be able to quickly predict the system's behaviour. However, the number of data-driven methods that can potentially be used for this task is large and diverse. In a safety-critical setting such as nuclear engineering, a fair comparison of different ML methods, and a clear understanding of their advantages and limitations, is of paramount importance. To address this, we introduce a Common Task Framework (CTF) for ML in nuclear engineering, building upon previous efforts in dynamical systems and seismology. This CTF considers a curated set of datasets from different nuclear and nuclear-adjacent systems. The CTF evaluates the performance of a method on 12 established metrics, alongside a new paradigm focused on system monitoring from sparse measurements only. We illustrate the framework by benchmarking standard ML baselines against these datasets, revealing current method limitations. Our vision is to replace ad hoc comparisons with standardized evaluations on hidden test sets, raising the bar for rigour and reproducibility in scientific ML for the nuclear industry.

Alexey Yermakov, Yue Zhao, Marine Denolle et al.

Seismology faces fundamental challenges in state forecasting and reconstruction (e.g., earthquake early warning and ground motion prediction) and managing the parametric variability of source locations, mechanisms, and Earth models (e.g., subsurface structure and topography effects). Addressing these with simulations is hindered by their massive scale, both in synthetic data volumes and numerical complexity, while real-data efforts are constrained by models that inadequately reflect the Earth's complexity and by sparse sensor measurements from the field. Recent machine learning (ML) efforts offer promise, but progress is obscured by a lack of proper characterization, fair reporting, and rigorous comparisons. To address this, we introduce a Common Task Framework (CTF) for ML for seismic wavefields, starting with three distinct wavefield datasets. Our CTF features a curated set of datasets at various scales (global, crustal, and local) and task-specific metrics spanning forecasting, reconstruction, and generalization under realistic constraints such as noise and limited data. Inspired by CTFs in fields like natural language processing, this framework provides a structured and rigorous foundation for head-to-head algorithm evaluation. We illustrate the evaluation procedure with scores reported for two of the datasets, showcasing the performance of various methods and foundation models for reconstructing seismic wavefields from both simulated and real-world sensor measurements. The CTF scores reveal the strengths, limitations, and suitability for specific problem classes. Our vision is to replace ad hoc comparisons with standardized evaluations on hidden test sets, raising the bar for rigor and reproducibility in scientific ML.

Alexey Yermakov, David Zoro, Mars Liyao Gao et al.

SHallow REcurrent Decoders (SHRED) are effective for system identification and forecasting from sparse sensor measurements. Such models are light-weight and computationally efficient, allowing them to be trained on consumer laptops. SHRED-based models rely on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and a simple Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) for the temporal encoding and spatial decoding respectively. Despite the relatively simple structure of SHRED, they are able to predict chaotic dynamical systems on different physical, spatial, and temporal scales directly from a sparse set of sensor measurements. In this work, we improve SHRED by leveraging transformers (T-SHRED) for the temporal encoding which improves performance on next-step state prediction on large datasets. We also introduce a sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) attention mechanism into T-SHRED to perform symbolic regression directly on the latent space as part of the model regularization architecture. Symbolic regression improves model interpretability by learning and regularizing the dynamics of the latent space during training. We analyze the performance of T-SHRED on three different dynamical systems ranging from low-data to high-data regimes. We observe that SINDy attention T-SHRED accurately predicts future frames based on an interpretable symbolic model across all tested datasets.