Carlos Lima Azevedo

Christoffer Riis, Francisco Antunes, Frederik Boe Hüttel et al.

The bias-variance trade-off is a well-known problem in machine learning that only gets more pronounced the less available data there is. In active learning, where labeled data is scarce or difficult to obtain, neglecting this trade-off can cause inefficient and non-optimal querying, leading to unnecessary data labeling. In this paper, we focus on active learning with Gaussian Processes (GPs). For the GP, the bias-variance trade-off is made by optimization of the two hyperparameters: the length scale and noise-term. Considering that the optimal mode of the joint posterior of the hyperparameters is equivalent to the optimal bias-variance trade-off, we approximate this joint posterior and utilize it to design two new acquisition functions. The first one is a Bayesian variant of Query-by-Committee (B-QBC), and the second is an extension that explicitly minimizes the predictive variance through a Query by Mixture of Gaussian Processes (QB-MGP) formulation. Across six simulators, we empirically show that B-QBC, on average, achieves the best marginal likelihood, whereas QB-MGP achieves the best predictive performance. We show that incorporating the bias-variance trade-off in the acquisition functions mitigates unnecessary and expensive data labeling.

Lorena Torres Lahoz, Francisco Camara Pereira, Georges Sfeir et al.

Latent Class Choice Models (LCCM) are extensions of discrete choice models (DCMs) that capture unobserved heterogeneity in the choice process by segmenting the population based on the assumption of preference similarities. We present a method of efficiently incorporating attitudinal indicators in the specification of LCCM, by introducing Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to formulate latent variables constructs. This formulation overcomes structural equations in its capability of exploring the relationship between the attitudinal indicators and the decision choice, given the Machine Learning (ML) flexibility and power in capturing unobserved and complex behavioural features, such as attitudes and beliefs. All of this while still maintaining the consistency of the theoretical assumptions presented in the Generalized Random Utility model and the interpretability of the estimated parameters. We test our proposed framework for estimating a Car-Sharing (CS) service subscription choice with stated preference data from Copenhagen, Denmark. The results show that our proposed approach provides a complete and realistic segmentation, which helps design better policies.

Marta A. Conceição, Antoine Dubois, Sonja Haustein et al.

According to the circumplex model of affect, an emotional response could characterized by a level of pleasure (valence) and intensity (arousal). As it reflects on the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, modern wearable wristbands can record non-invasively and during our everyday lives peripheral end-points of this response. While emotion recognition from physiological signals is usually achieved using supervised machine learning algorithms that require ground truth labels for training, collecting it is cumbersome and particularly unfeasible in naturalistic settings, and extracting meaningful insights from these signals requires domain knowledge and might be prone to bias. Here, we propose and test a deep-seeded clustering algorithm that automatically extracts and classifies features from those physiological signals with minimal supervision - combining an autoencoder (AE) for unsupervised feature representation and c-means clustering for fine-grained classification. We also show that the model obtains good performance results across three different datasets frequently used in affective computing studies (accuracies of 80.7% on WESAD, 64.2% on Stress-Predict and 61.0% on CEAP360-VR).

Miguel Costa, Manuel Marques, Felix Wilhelm Siebert et al.

Today, many cities seek to transition to more sustainable transportation systems. Cycling is critical in this transition for shorter trips, including first-and-last-mile links to transit. Yet, if individuals perceive cycling as unsafe, they will not cycle and choose other transportation modes. This study presents a novel approach to identifying how the perception of cycling safety can be analyzed and understood and the impact of the built environment and cycling contexts on such perceptions. We base our work on other perception studies and pairwise comparisons, using real-world images to survey respondents. We repeatedly show respondents two road environments and ask them to select the one they perceive as safer for cycling. We compare several methods capable of rating cycling environments from pairwise comparisons and classify cycling environments perceived as safe or unsafe. Urban planning can use this score to improve interventions' effectiveness and improve cycling promotion campaigns. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the continuous assessment of changing cycling environments, allows for a short-term evaluation of measures, and is efficiently deployed in different locations or contexts.

Christoffer Riis, Francisco N. Antunes, Tatjana Bolić et al.

The use of Air traffic management (ATM) simulators for planing and operations can be challenging due to their modelling complexity. This paper presents XALM (eXplainable Active Learning Metamodel), a three-step framework integrating active learning and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values into simulation metamodels for supporting ATM decision-making. XALM efficiently uncovers hidden relationships among input and output variables in ATM simulators, those usually of interest in policy analysis. Our experiments show XALM's predictive performance comparable to the XGBoost metamodel with fewer simulations. Additionally, XALM exhibits superior explanatory capabilities compared to non-active learning metamodels. Using the `Mercury' (flight and passenger) ATM simulator, XALM is applied to a real-world scenario in Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, extending an arrival manager's range and scope by analysing six variables. This case study illustrates XALM's effectiveness in enhancing simulation interpretability and understanding variable interactions. By addressing computational challenges and improving explainability, XALM complements traditional simulation-based analyses. Lastly, we discuss two practical approaches for reducing the computational burden of the metamodelling further: we introduce a stopping criterion for active learning based on the inherent uncertainty of the metamodel, and we show how the simulations used for the metamodel can be reused across key performance indicators, thus decreasing the overall number of simulations needed.

Dang Viet Anh Nguyen, Carlos Lima Azevedo, Tomer Toledo et al.

Reinforcement learning-based traffic signal control (RL-TSC) has emerged as a promising approach for improving urban mobility. However, its robustness under real-world disruptions such as traffic incidents remains largely underexplored. In this study, we introduce T-REX, an open-source, SUMO-based simulation framework for training and evaluating RL-TSC methods under dynamic, incident scenarios. T-REX models realistic network-level performance considering drivers' probabilistic rerouting, speed adaptation, and contextual lane-changing, enabling the simulation of congestion propagation under incidents. To assess robustness, we propose a suite of metrics that extend beyond conventional traffic efficiency measures. Through extensive experiments across synthetic and real-world networks, we showcase T-REX for the evaluation of several state-of-the-art RL-TSC methods under multiple real-world deployment paradigms. Our findings show that while independent value-based and decentralized pressure-based methods offer fast convergence and generalization in stable traffic conditions and homogeneous networks, their performance degrades sharply under incident-driven distribution shifts. In contrast, hierarchical coordination methods tend to offer more stable and adaptable performance in large-scale, irregular networks, benefiting from their structured decision-making architecture. However, this comes with the trade-off of slower convergence and higher training complexity. These findings highlight the need for robustness-aware design and evaluation in RL-TSC research. T-REX contributes to this effort by providing an open, standardized and reproducible platform for benchmarking RL methods under dynamic and disruptive traffic scenarios.

Filipe Rodrigues, Carlos Lima Azevedo

Reinforcement learning (RL) constitutes a promising solution for alleviating the problem of traffic congestion. In particular, deep RL algorithms have been shown to produce adaptive traffic signal controllers that outperform conventional systems. However, in order to be reliable in highly dynamic urban areas, such controllers need to be robust with the respect to a series of exogenous sources of uncertainty. In this paper, we develop an open-source callback-based framework for promoting the flexible evaluation of different deep RL configurations under a traffic simulation environment. With this framework, we investigate how deep RL-based adaptive traffic controllers perform under different scenarios, namely under demand surges caused by special events, capacity reductions from incidents and sensor failures. We extract several key insights for the development of robust deep RL algorithms for traffic control and propose concrete designs to mitigate the impact of the considered exogenous uncertainties.

Dang Viet Anh Nguyen, J. Victor Flensburg, Fabrizio Cerreto et al.

With the expansion of cities over time, URT (Urban Rail Transit) networks have also grown significantly. Demand prediction plays an important role in supporting planning, scheduling, fleet management, and other operational decisions. In this study, we propose an Origin-Destination (OD) demand prediction model called Multi-Graph Inductive Representation Learning (mGraphSAGE) for large-scale URT networks under operational uncertainties. Our main contributions are twofold: we enhance prediction results while ensuring scalability for large networks by relying simultaneously on multiple graphs, where each OD pair is a node on a graph and distinct OD relationships, such as temporal and spatial correlations; we show the importance of including operational uncertainties such as train delays and cancellations as inputs in demand prediction for daily operations. The model is validated on three different scales of the URT network in Copenhagen, Denmark. Experimental results show that by leveraging information from neighboring ODs and learning node representations via sampling and aggregation, mGraphSAGE is particularly suitable for OD demand prediction in large-scale URT networks, outperforming reference machine learning methods. Furthermore, during periods with train cancellations and delays, the performance gap between mGraphSAGE and other methods improves compared to normal operating conditions, demonstrating its ability to leverage system reliability information for predicting OD demand under uncertainty.

Miguel Costa, Manuel Marques, Carlos Lima Azevedo et al.

Cycling is critical for cities to transition to more sustainable transport modes. Yet, safety concerns remain a critical deterrent for individuals to cycle. If individuals perceive an environment as unsafe for cycling, it is likely that they will prefer other means of transportation. Yet, capturing and understanding how individuals perceive cycling risk is complex and often slow, with researchers defaulting to traditional surveys and in-loco interviews. In this study, we tackle this problem. We base our approach on using pairwise comparisons of real-world images, repeatedly presenting respondents with pairs of road environments and asking them to select the one they perceive as safer for cycling, if any. Using the collected data, we train a siamese-convolutional neural network using a multi-loss framework that learns from individuals' responses, learns preferences directly from images, and includes ties (often discarded in the literature). Effectively, this model learns to predict human-style perceptions, evaluating which cycling environments are perceived as safer. Our model achieves good results, showcasing this approach has a real-life impact, such as improving interventions' effectiveness. Furthermore, it facilitates the continuous assessment of changing cycling environments, permitting short-term evaluations of measures to enhance perceived cycling safety. Finally, our method can be efficiently deployed in different locations with a growing number of openly available street-view images.

Silke K. Kaiser, Filipe Rodrigues, Carlos Lima Azevedo et al.

Reliable street-level traffic volume data, covering multiple modes of transportation, helps urban planning by informing decisions on infrastructure improvements, traffic management, and public transportation. Yet, traffic sensors measuring traffic volume are typically scarcely located, due to their high deployment and maintenance costs. To address this, interpolation methods can estimate traffic volumes at unobserved locations using available data. Graph Neural Networks have shown strong performance in traffic volume forecasting, particularly on highways and major arterial networks. Applying them to urban settings, however, presents unique challenges: urban networks exhibit greater structural diversity, traffic volumes are highly overdispersed with many zeros, the best way to account for spatial dependencies remains unclear, and sensor coverage is often very sparse. We introduce the Graph Neural Network for Urban Interpolation (GNNUI), a novel urban traffic volume estimation approach. GNNUI employs a masking algorithm to learn interpolation, integrates node features to capture functional roles, and uses a loss function tailored to zero-inflated traffic distributions. In addition to the model, we introduce two new open, large-scale urban traffic volume benchmarks, covering different transportation modes: Strava cycling data from Berlin and New York City taxi data. GNNUI outperforms recent, some graph-based, interpolation methods across metrics (MAE, RMSE, true-zero rate, Kullback-Leibler divergence) and remains robust from 90% to 1% sensor coverage. On Strava, for instance, MAE rises only from 7.1 to 10.5, on Taxi from 23.0 to 40.4, demonstrating strong performance under extreme data scarcity, common in real-world urban settings. We also examine how graph connectivity choices influence model accuracy.

Xiaoyi Wu, Ravi Seshadri, Filipe Rodrigues et al.

Tradable credit schemes (TCS) are an increasingly studied alternative to congestion pricing, given their revenue neutrality and ability to address issues of equity through the initial credit allocation. Modeling TCS to aid future design and implementation is associated with challenges involving user and market behaviors, demand-supply dynamics, and control mechanisms. In this paper, we focus on the latter and address the day-to-day dynamic tolling problem under TCS, which is formulated as a discrete-time Markov Decision Process and solved using reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Our results indicate that RL algorithms achieve travel times and social welfare comparable to the Bayesian optimization benchmark, with generalization across varying capacities and demand levels. We further assess the robustness of RL under different hyperparameters and apply regularization techniques to mitigate action oscillation, which generates practical tolling strategies that are transferable under day-to-day demand and supply variability. Finally, we discuss potential challenges such as scaling to large networks, and show how transfer learning can be leveraged to improve computational efficiency and facilitate the practical deployment of RL-based TCS solutions.

Lorena Torres Lahoz, Carlos Lima Azevedo, Leonardo Ancora et al.

Urban environments significantly influence mental health outcomes, yet the role of an effective framework for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) for optimizing urban policies for stress reduction remains underexplored. While existing research has demonstrated the effects of urban design on mental health, there is a lack of systematic scenario-based analysis to guide urban planning decisions. This study addresses this gap by applying Scenario Discovery (SD) in urban planning to evaluate the effectiveness of urban vegetation interventions in stress reduction across different urban environments using a predictive model based on emotional responses collected from a neuroscience-based outdoor experiment in Lisbon. Combining these insights with detailed urban data from Copenhagen, we identify key intervention thresholds where vegetation-based solutions succeed or fail in mitigating stress responses. Our findings reveal that while increased vegetation generally correlates with lower stress levels, high-density urban environments, crowding, and individual psychological traits (e.g., extraversion) can reduce its effectiveness. This work showcases our Scenario Discovery framework as a systematic approach for identifying robust policy pathways in urban planning, opening the door for its exploration in other urban decision-making contexts where uncertainty and design resiliency are critical.

Ioanna Arkoudi, Carlos Lima Azevedo, Francisco C. Pereira

This study proposes a novel approach that combines theory and data-driven choice models using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In particular, we use continuous vector representations, called embeddings, for encoding categorical or discrete explanatory variables with a special focus on interpretability and model transparency. Although embedding representations within the logit framework have been conceptualized by Pereira (2019), their dimensions do not have an absolute definitive meaning, hence offering limited behavioral insights in this earlier work. The novelty of our work lies in enforcing interpretability to the embedding vectors by formally associating each of their dimensions to a choice alternative. Thus, our approach brings benefits much beyond a simple parsimonious representation improvement over dummy encoding, as it provides behaviorally meaningful outputs that can be used in travel demand analysis and policy decisions. Additionally, in contrast to previously suggested ANN-based Discrete Choice Models (DCMs) that either sacrifice interpretability for performance or are only partially interpretable, our models preserve interpretability of the utility coefficients for all the input variables despite being based on ANN principles. The proposed models were tested on two real world datasets and evaluated against benchmark and baseline models that use dummy-encoding. The results of the experiments indicate that our models deliver state-of-the-art predictive performance, outperforming existing ANN-based models while drastically reducing the number of required network parameters.

Inon Peled, Raghuveer Kamalakar, Carlos Lima Azevedo et al.

Current data-driven traffic prediction models are usually trained with large datasets, e.g. several months of speeds and flows. Such models provide very good fit for ordinary road conditions, but often fail just when they are most needed: when traffic suffers a sudden and significant disruption, such as a road incident. In this work, we describe QTIP: a simulation-based framework for quasi-instantaneous adaptation of prediction models upon traffic disruption. In a nutshell, QTIP performs real-time simulations of the affected road for multiple scenarios, analyzes the results, and suggests a change to an ordinary prediction model accordingly. QTIP constructs the simulated scenarios per properties of the incident, as conveyed by immediate distress signals from affected vehicles. Such real-time signals are provided by In-Vehicle Monitor Systems, which are becoming increasingly prevalent world-wide. We experiment QTIP in a case study of a Danish motorway, and the results show that QTIP can improve traffic prediction in the first critical minutes of road incidents.