Giacomo Acciarini

Zhong Zhang, Giacomo Acciarini, Dario Izzo et al.

Low-thrust trajectory design relies heavily on repeated evaluations of fuel consumption and transfer feasibility, which require expensive optimal control solutions. In this work, we show these quantities can be accurately approximated by machine learning surrogates, enabling fast and scalable evaluation across a wide range of scenarios. By increasing both dataset size and model capacity, we observe that low-thrust trajectory optimization follows a scaling law, with performance improving linearly with the logarithm of training data and network parameters, and no evidence of saturation within the explored regime. Guided by this observation, we construct a large-scale dataset using the proposed homotopy-ray strategy tailored to mission design requirements. A key is the introduction of a self-similar transformation, which allows generalization across semi-major axes, inclinations, and central bodies avoiding retraining. As a result, the same neural approximator can be applied to diverse orbital environments and mission classes. The proposed models accurately predict optimal fuel consumption and minimum transfer time for single- and multi-revolution transfers. Their performance and generalization are demonstrated on a public dataset, a multi-asteroid flyby problem from the Global Trajectory Optimization Competition, and an asteroid rendezvous mission design. The models and datasets are released as open-source to support the space community.

Maggie Chen, Hala Lamdouar, Luca Marini et al.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and a major driver of climate change, making its timely detection critical for effective mitigation. Machine learning (ML) deployed onboard satellites can enable rapid detection while reducing downlink costs, supporting faster response systems. Conventional methane detection methods often rely on image processing techniques, such as orthorectification to correct geometric distortions and matched filters to enhance plume signals. We introduce a novel approach that bypasses these preprocessing steps by using \textit{unorthorectified} data (UnorthoDOS). We find that ML models trained on this dataset achieve performance comparable to those trained on orthorectified data. Moreover, we also train models on an orthorectified dataset, showing that they can outperform the matched filter baseline (mag1c). We release model checkpoints and two ML-ready datasets comprising orthorectified and unorthorectified hyperspectral images from the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) sensor at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SpaceML/UnorthoDOS , along with code at https://github.com/spaceml-org/plume-hunter.

Marcus Märtens, Dario Izzo, Emmanuel Blazquez et al.

Dyson spheres are hypothetical megastructures encircling stars in order to harvest most of their energy output. During the 11th edition of the GTOC challenge, participants were tasked with a complex trajectory planning related to the construction of a precursor Dyson structure, a heliocentric ring made of twelve stations. To this purpose, we developed several new approaches that synthesize techniques from machine learning, combinatorial optimization, planning and scheduling, and evolutionary optimization effectively integrated into a fully automated pipeline. These include a machine learned transfer time estimator, improving the established Edelbaum approximation and thus better informing a Lazy Race Tree Search to identify and collect asteroids with high arrival mass for the stations; a series of optimally-phased low-thrust transfers to all stations computed by indirect optimization techniques, exploiting the synodic periodicity of the system; and a modified Hungarian scheduling algorithm, which utilizes evolutionary techniques to arrange a mass-balanced arrival schedule out of all transfer possibilities. We describe the steps of our pipeline in detail with a special focus on how our approaches mutually benefit from each other. Lastly, we outline and analyze the final solution of our team, ACT&Friends, which ranked second at the GTOC 11 challenge.

Giacomo Acciarini, Dario Izzo, Zhong Zhang

Reachability analysis plays a central role in low-thrust spacecraft trajectory optimization by identifying which target states can be achieved under constraints on time, thrust, and propellant. Classical approaches construct reachable sets by solving many optimal control problems over grids of terminal states, requiring extensive forward simulations with fixed initial conditions. While effective, this approach is computationally expensive and becomes impractical for high-dimensional systems or strongly nonlinear dynamics, such as those encountered in cislunar environments or solar sail missions. This work introduces a dual formulation of the reachability problem. Instead of computing reachable sets directly, we determine, for fixed transfer time and boundary conditions, the maximum allowable initial mass (or, for solar sails, a scalar sail-strength parameter) that permits a successful transfer. A target is reachable if the spacecraft's initial mass does not exceed this threshold. This reformulation reduces reachability assessment to a scalar optimization problem for each target, producing a smooth scalar field that encodes equivalent feasibility information to classical reachable sets. We develop indirect maximum-initial-mass (MIM) formulations for both electric low-thrust and solar-sail dynamics and show how they can serve as efficient reachability oracles. Building on this formulation, we construct data-driven surrogate models to approximate the MIM-based reachability indicator. We investigate fully connected neural networks and demonstrate that residual networks provide the best trade-off between accuracy, training stability, and model complexity. The resulting surrogates enable rapid reachability evaluation while preserving the numerical advantages of the dual formulation, offering a practical tool for preliminary mission design and feasibility assessment.

Sebastien Origer, Dario Izzo, Giacomo Acciarini et al.

We perform uncertainty propagation on an event manifold for Guidance & Control Networks (G&CNETs), aiming to enhance the certification tools for neural networks in this field. This work utilizes three previously solved optimal control problems with varying levels of dynamics nonlinearity and event manifold complexity. The G&CNETs are trained to represent the optimal control policies of a time-optimal interplanetary transfer, a mass-optimal landing on an asteroid and energy-optimal drone racing, respectively. For each of these problems, we describe analytically the terminal conditions on an event manifold with respect to initial state uncertainties. Crucially, this expansion does not depend on time but solely on the initial conditions of the system, thereby making it possible to study the robustness of the G&CNET at any specific stage of a mission defined by the event manifold. Once this analytical expression is found, we provide confidence bounds by applying the Cauchy-Hadamard theorem and perform uncertainty propagation using moment generating functions. While Monte Carlo-based (MC) methods can yield the results we present, this work is driven by the recognition that MC simulations alone may be insufficient for future certification of neural networks in guidance and control applications.

Giacomo Acciarini, Francesco Biscani, Dario Izzo

In the field of spaceflight mechanics and astrodynamics, determining eclipse regions is a frequent and critical challenge. This determination impacts various factors, including the acceleration induced by solar radiation pressure, the spacecraft power input, and its thermal state all of which must be accounted for in various phases of the mission design. This study leverages recent advances in neural image processing to develop fully differentiable models of eclipse regions for highly irregular celestial bodies. By utilizing test cases involving Solar System bodies previously visited by spacecraft, such as 433 Eros, 25143 Itokawa, 67P/Churyumov--Gerasimenko, and 101955 Bennu, we propose and study an implicit neural architecture defining the shape of the eclipse cone based on the Sun's direction. Employing periodic activation functions, we achieve high precision in modeling eclipse conditions. Furthermore, we discuss the potential applications of these differentiable models in spaceflight mechanics computations.

Shreshth A. Malik, James Walsh, Giacomo Acciarini et al.

Accurate estimation of thermospheric density is critical for precise modeling of satellite drag forces in low Earth orbit (LEO). Improving this estimation is crucial to tasks such as state estimation, collision avoidance, and re-entry calculations. The largest source of uncertainty in determining thermospheric density is modeling the effects of space weather driven by solar and geomagnetic activity. Current operational models rely on ground-based proxy indices which imperfectly correlate with the complexity of solar outputs and geomagnetic responses. In this work, we directly incorporate NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral images into a neural thermospheric density model to determine whether the predictive performance of the model is increased by using space-based EUV imagery data instead of, or in addition to, the ground-based proxy indices. We demonstrate that EUV imagery can enable predictions with much higher temporal resolution and replace ground-based proxies while significantly increasing performance relative to current operational models. Our method paves the way for assimilating EUV image data into operational thermospheric density forecasting models for use in LEO satellite navigation processes.

Giacomo Acciarini, Simone Mestici, Halil Kelebek et al.

The ionosphere critically influences Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), satellite communications, and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) operations, yet accurate prediction of its variability remains challenging due to nonlinear couplings between solar, geomagnetic, and thermospheric drivers. Total Electron Content (TEC), a key ionospheric parameter, is derived from GNSS observations, but its reliable forecasting is limited by the sparse nature of global measurements and the limited accuracy of empirical models, especially during strong space weather conditions. In this work, we present a machine learning framework for ionospheric TEC forecasting that leverages Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT) to predict sparse ionosphere data. Our approach accommodates heterogeneous input sources, including solar irradiance, geomagnetic indices, and GNSS-derived vertical TEC, and applies preprocessing and temporal alignment strategies. Experiments spanning 2010-2025 demonstrate that the model achieves robust predictions up to 24 hours ahead, with root mean square errors as low as 3.33 TECU. Results highlight that solar EUV irradiance provides the strongest predictive signals. Beyond forecasting accuracy, the framework offers interpretability through attention-based analysis, supporting both operational applications and scientific discovery. To encourage reproducibility and community-driven development, we release the full implementation as the open-source toolkit \texttt{ionopy}.

Maggie Chen, Hala Lambdouar, Luca Marini et al.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and a major driver of climate change, making its timely detection critical for effective mitigation. Machine learning (ML) deployed onboard satellites can enable rapid detection while reducing downlink costs, supporting faster response systems. Conventional methane detection methods often rely on image processing techniques, such as orthorectification to correct geometric distortions and matched filters to enhance plume signals. We introduce a novel approach that bypasses these preprocessing steps by using \textit{unorthorectified} data (UnorthoDOS). We find that ML models trained on this dataset achieve performance comparable to those trained on orthorectified data. Moreover, we also train models on an orthorectified dataset, showing that they can outperform the matched filter baseline (mag1c). We release model checkpoints and two ML-ready datasets comprising orthorectified and unorthorectified hyperspectral images from the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) sensor at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SpaceML/UnorthoDOS , along with code at https://github.com/spaceml-org/plume-hunter.

Giacomo Acciarini, Atılım Güneş Baydin, Dario Izzo

The Simplified General Perturbations 4 (SGP4) orbital propagation method is widely used for predicting the positions and velocities of Earth-orbiting objects rapidly and reliably. Despite continuous refinement, SGP models still lack the precision of numerical propagators, which offer significantly smaller errors. This study presents dSGP4, a novel differentiable version of SGP4 implemented using PyTorch. By making SGP4 differentiable, dSGP4 facilitates various space-related applications, including spacecraft orbit determination, state conversion, covariance transformation, state transition matrix computation, and covariance propagation. Additionally, dSGP4's PyTorch implementation allows for embarrassingly parallel orbital propagation across batches of Two-Line Element Sets (TLEs), leveraging the computational power of CPUs, GPUs, and advanced hardware for distributed prediction of satellite positions at future times. Furthermore, dSGP4's differentiability enables integration with modern machine learning techniques. Thus, we propose a novel orbital propagation paradigm, ML-dSGP4, where neural networks are integrated into the orbital propagator. Through stochastic gradient descent, this combined model's inputs, outputs, and parameters can be iteratively refined, surpassing SGP4's precision. Neural networks act as identity operators by default, adhering to SGP4's behavior. However, dSGP4's differentiability allows fine-tuning with ephemeris data, enhancing precision while maintaining computational speed. This empowers satellite operators and researchers to train the model using specific ephemeris or high-precision numerical propagation data, significantly advancing orbital prediction capabilities.

Dario Izzo, Marcus Märtens, Laurent Beauregard et al.

In 2023, the 12th edition of Global Trajectory Competition was organised around the problem referred to as "Sustainable Asteroid Mining". This paper reports the developments that led to the solution proposed by ESA's Advanced Concepts Team. Beyond the fact that the proposed approach failed to rank higher than fourth in the final competition leader-board, several innovative fundamental methodologies were developed which have a broader application. In particular, new methods based on machine learning as well as on manipulating the fundamental laws of astrodynamics were developed and able to fill with remarkable accuracy the gap between full low-thrust trajectories and their representation as impulsive Lambert transfers. A novel technique was devised to formulate the challenge of optimal subset selection from a repository of pre-existing optimal mining trajectories as an integer linear programming problem. Finally, the fundamental problem of searching for single optimal mining trajectories (mining and collecting all resources), albeit ignoring the possibility of having intra-ship collaboration and thus sub-optimal in the case of the GTOC12 problem, was efficiently solved by means of a novel search based on a look-ahead score and thus making sure to select asteroids that had chances to be re-visited later on.

Dario Izzo, Sebastien Origer, Giacomo Acciarini et al.

Artificial neural networks, widely recognised for their role in machine learning, are now transforming the study of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), bridging data-driven modelling with classical dynamical systems and enabling the development of infinitely deep neural models. However, the practical applicability of these models remains constrained by the opacity of their learned dynamics, which operate as black-box systems with limited explainability, thereby hindering trust in their deployment. Existing approaches for the analysis of these dynamical systems are predominantly restricted to first-order gradient information due to computational constraints, thereby limiting the depth of achievable insight. Here, we introduce Event Transition Tensors, a framework based on high-order differentials that provides a rigorous mathematical description of neural ODE dynamics on event manifolds. We demonstrate its versatility across diverse applications: characterising uncertainties in a data-driven prey-predator control model, analysing neural optimal feedback dynamics, and mapping landing trajectories in a three-body neural Hamiltonian system. In all cases, our method enhances the interpretability and rigour of neural ODEs by expressing their behaviour through explicit mathematical structures. Our findings contribute to a deeper theoretical foundation for event-triggered neural differential equations and provide a mathematical construct for explaining complex system dynamics.

Halil S. Kelebek, Linnea M. Wolniewicz, Michael D. Vergalla et al.

The ionosphere is a critical component of near-Earth space, shaping GNSS accuracy, high-frequency communications, and aviation operations. For these reasons, accurate forecasting and modeling of ionospheric variability has become increasingly relevant. To address this gap, we present IonCast, a suite of deep learning models that include a GraphCast-inspired model tailored for ionospheric dynamics. IonCast leverages spatiotemporal learning to forecast global Total Electron Content (TEC), integrating diverse physical drivers and observational datasets. Validating on held-out storm-time and quiet conditions highlights improved skill compared to persistence. By unifying heterogeneous data with scalable graph-based spatiotemporal learning, IonCast demonstrates how machine learning can augment physical understanding of ionospheric variability and advance operational space weather resilience.

Linnea M. Wolniewicz, Halil S. Kelebek, Simone Mestici et al.

Operational forecasting of the ionosphere remains a critical space weather challenge due to sparse observations, complex coupling across geospatial layers, and a growing need for timely, accurate predictions that support Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), communications, aviation safety, as well as satellite operations. As part of the 2025 NASA Heliolab, we present a curated, open-access dataset that integrates diverse ionospheric and heliospheric measurements into a coherent, machine learning-ready structure, designed specifically to support next-generation forecasting models and address gaps in current operational frameworks. Our workflow integrates a large selection of data sources comprising Solar Dynamic Observatory data, solar irradiance indices (F10.7), solar wind parameters (velocity and interplanetary magnetic field), geomagnetic activity indices (Kp, AE, SYM-H), and NASA JPL's Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). We also implement geospatially sparse data such as the TEC derived from the World-Wide GNSS Receiver Network and crowdsourced Android smartphone measurements. This novel heterogeneous dataset is temporally and spatially aligned into a single, modular data structure that supports both physical and data-driven modeling. Leveraging this dataset, we train and benchmark several spatiotemporal machine learning architectures for forecasting vertical TEC under both quiet and geomagnetically active conditions. This work presents an extensive dataset and modeling pipeline that enables exploration of not only ionospheric dynamics but also broader Sun-Earth interactions, supporting both scientific inquiry and operational forecasting efforts.

Giacomo Acciarini, Dario Izzo, Francesco Biscani

Accurately predicting eclipse events around irregular small bodies is crucial for spacecraft navigation, orbit determination, and spacecraft systems management. This paper introduces a novel approach leveraging neural implicit representations to model eclipse conditions efficiently and reliably. We propose neural network architectures that capture the complex silhouettes of asteroids and comets with high precision. Tested on four well-characterized bodies - Bennu, Itokawa, 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, and Eros - our method achieves accuracy comparable to traditional ray-tracing techniques while offering orders of magnitude faster performance. Additionally, we develop an indirect learning framework that trains these models directly from sparse trajectory data using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations, removing the requirement to have prior knowledge of an accurate shape model. This approach allows for the continuous refinement of eclipse predictions, progressively reducing errors and improving accuracy as new trajectory data is incorporated.

Bernard Benson, Edward Brown, Stefano Bonasera et al.

Solar radio flux along with geomagnetic indices are important indicators of solar activity and its effects. Extreme solar events such as flares and geomagnetic storms can negatively affect the space environment including satellites in low-Earth orbit. Therefore, forecasting these space weather indices is of great importance in space operations and science. In this study, we propose a model based on long short-term memory neural networks to learn the distribution of time series data with the capability to provide a simultaneous multivariate 27-day forecast of the space weather indices using time series as well as solar image data. We show a 30-40\% improvement of the root mean-square error while including solar image data with time series data compared to using time series data alone. Simple baselines such as a persistence and running average forecasts are also compared with the trained deep neural network models. We also quantify the uncertainty in our prediction using a model ensemble.

Francesco Pinto, Giacomo Acciarini, Sascha Metz et al.

After decades of space travel, low Earth orbit is a junkyard of discarded rocket bodies, dead satellites, and millions of pieces of debris from collisions and explosions. Objects in high enough altitudes do not re-enter and burn up in the atmosphere, but stay in orbit around Earth for a long time. With a speed of 28,000 km/h, collisions in these orbits can generate fragments and potentially trigger a cascade of more collisions known as the Kessler syndrome. This could pose a planetary challenge, because the phenomenon could escalate to the point of hindering future space operations and damaging satellite infrastructure critical for space and Earth science applications. As commercial entities place mega-constellations of satellites in orbit, the burden on operators conducting collision avoidance manoeuvres will increase. For this reason, development of automated tools that predict potential collision events (conjunctions) is critical. We introduce a Bayesian deep learning approach to this problem, and develop recurrent neural network architectures (LSTMs) that work with time series of conjunction data messages (CDMs), a standard data format used by the space community. We show that our method can be used to model all CDM features simultaneously, including the time of arrival of future CDMs, providing predictions of conjunction event evolution with associated uncertainties.

Giacomo Acciarini, Francesco Pinto, Sascha Metz et al.

Over 34,000 objects bigger than 10 cm in length are known to orbit Earth. Among them, only a small percentage are active satellites, while the rest of the population is made of dead satellites, rocket bodies, and debris that pose a collision threat to operational spacecraft. Furthermore, the predicted growth of the space sector and the planned launch of megaconstellations will add even more complexity, therefore causing the collision risk and the burden on space operators to increase. Managing this complex framework with internationally agreed methods is pivotal and urgent. In this context, we build a novel physics-based probabilistic generative model for synthetically generating conjunction data messages, calibrated using real data. By conditioning on observations, we use the model to obtain posterior distributions via Bayesian inference. We show that the probabilistic programming approach to conjunction assessment can help in making predictions and in finding the parameters that explain the observed data in conjunction data messages, thus shedding more light on key variables and orbital characteristics that more likely lead to conjunction events. Moreover, our technique enables the generation of physically accurate synthetic datasets of collisions, answering a fundamental need of the space and machine learning communities working in this area.