Alihan Hüyük

Hao Sun, Alihan Hüyük, Mihaela van der Schaar

In this study, we aim to enhance the arithmetic reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) through zero-shot prompt optimization. We identify a previously overlooked objective of query dependency in such optimization and elucidate two ensuing challenges that impede the successful and economical design of prompt optimization techniques. One primary issue is the absence of an effective method to evaluate prompts during inference when the golden answer is unavailable. Concurrently, learning via interactions with the LLMs to navigate the expansive natural language prompting space proves to be resource-intensive. To address this, we introduce Prompt-OIRL, which harnesses offline inverse reinforcement learning to draw insights from offline prompting demonstration data. Such data exists as by-products when diverse prompts are benchmarked on open-accessible datasets. With Prompt-OIRL, the query-dependent prompt optimization objective is achieved by first learning an offline reward model. This model can evaluate any query-prompt pairs without accessing LLMs. Subsequently, a best-of-N strategy is deployed to recommend the optimal prompt. Our experimental evaluations across various LLM scales and arithmetic reasoning datasets underscore both the efficacy and economic viability of the proposed approach.

Daniel Jarrett, Alihan Hüyük, Mihaela van der Schaar

Decision analysis deals with modeling and enhancing decision processes. A principal challenge in improving behavior is in obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior in the first place. In this paper, we develop an expressive, unifying perspective on inverse decision modeling: a framework for learning parameterized representations of sequential decision behavior. First, we formalize the forward problem (as a normative standard), subsuming common classes of control behavior. Second, we use this to formalize the inverse problem (as a descriptive model), generalizing existing work on imitation/reward learning -- while opening up a much broader class of research problems in behavior representation. Finally, we instantiate this approach with an example (inverse bounded rational control), illustrating how this structure enables learning (interpretable) representations of (bounded) rationality -- while naturally capturing intuitive notions of suboptimal actions, biased beliefs, and imperfect knowledge of environments.

Alihan Hüyük, Daniel Jarrett, Mihaela van der Schaar

Understanding human behavior from observed data is critical for transparency and accountability in decision-making. Consider real-world settings such as healthcare, in which modeling a decision-maker's policy is challenging -- with no access to underlying states, no knowledge of environment dynamics, and no allowance for live experimentation. We desire learning a data-driven representation of decision-making behavior that (1) inheres transparency by design, (2) accommodates partial observability, and (3) operates completely offline. To satisfy these key criteria, we propose a novel model-based Bayesian method for interpretable policy learning ("Interpole") that jointly estimates an agent's (possibly biased) belief-update process together with their (possibly suboptimal) belief-action mapping. Through experiments on both simulated and real-world data for the problem of Alzheimer's disease diagnosis, we illustrate the potential of our approach as an investigative device for auditing, quantifying, and understanding human decision-making behavior.

Samuel Holt, Alihan Hüyük, Zhaozhi Qian et al.

Many real-world offline reinforcement learning (RL) problems involve continuous-time environments with delays. Such environments are characterized by two distinctive features: firstly, the state x(t) is observed at irregular time intervals, and secondly, the current action a(t) only affects the future state x(t + g) with an unknown delay g > 0. A prime example of such an environment is satellite control where the communication link between earth and a satellite causes irregular observations and delays. Existing offline RL algorithms have achieved success in environments with irregularly observed states in time or known delays. However, environments involving both irregular observations in time and unknown delays remains an open and challenging problem. To this end, we propose Neural Laplace Control, a continuous-time model-based offline RL method that combines a Neural Laplace dynamics model with a model predictive control (MPC) planner--and is able to learn from an offline dataset sampled with irregular time intervals from an environment that has a inherent unknown constant delay. We show experimentally on continuous-time delayed environments it is able to achieve near expert policy performance.

Hao Sun, Alihan Hüyük, Daniel Jarrett et al.

Learning controllers with offline data in decision-making systems is an essential area of research due to its potential to reduce the risk of applications in real-world systems. However, in responsibility-sensitive settings such as healthcare, decision accountability is of paramount importance, yet has not been adequately addressed by the literature. This paper introduces the Accountable Offline Controller (AOC) that employs the offline dataset as the Decision Corpus and performs accountable control based on a tailored selection of examples, referred to as the Corpus Subset. AOC operates effectively in low-data scenarios, can be extended to the strictly offline imitation setting, and displays qualities of both conservation and adaptability. We assess AOC's performance in both simulated and real-world healthcare scenarios, emphasizing its capability to manage offline control tasks with high levels of performance while maintaining accountability.

Daniel Jarrett, Alihan Hüyük, Mihaela van der Schaar

Consider learning a decision support assistant to serve as an intermediary between (oracle) expert behavior and (imperfect) human behavior: At each time, the algorithm observes an action chosen by a fallible agent, and decides whether to *accept* that agent's decision, *intervene* with an alternative, or *request* the expert's opinion. For instance, in clinical diagnosis, fully-autonomous machine behavior is often beyond ethical affordances, thus real-world decision support is often limited to monitoring and forecasting. Instead, such an intermediary would strike a prudent balance between the former (purely prescriptive) and latter (purely descriptive) approaches, while providing an efficient interface between human mistakes and expert feedback. In this work, we first formalize the sequential problem of *online decision mediation* -- that is, of simultaneously learning and evaluating mediator policies from scratch with *abstentive feedback*: In each round, deferring to the oracle obviates the risk of error, but incurs an upfront penalty, and reveals the otherwise hidden expert action as a new training data point. Second, we motivate and propose a solution that seeks to trade off (immediate) loss terms against (future) improvements in generalization error; in doing so, we identify why conventional bandit algorithms may fail. Finally, through experiments and sensitivities on a variety of datasets, we illustrate consistent gains over applicable benchmarks on performance measures with respect to the mediator policy, the learned model, and the decision-making system as a whole.

Hao Sun, Alex J. Chan, Nabeel Seedat et al.

Evaluating the value of a hypothetical target policy with only a logged dataset is important but challenging. On the one hand, it brings opportunities for safe policy improvement under high-stakes scenarios like clinical guidelines. On the other hand, such opportunities raise a need for precise off-policy evaluation (OPE). While previous work on OPE focused on improving the algorithm in value estimation, in this work, we emphasize the importance of the offline dataset, hence putting forward a data-centric framework for evaluating OPE problems. We propose DataCOPE, a data-centric framework for evaluating OPE, that answers the questions of whether and to what extent we can evaluate a target policy given a dataset. DataCOPE (1) forecasts the overall performance of OPE algorithms without access to the environment, which is especially useful before real-world deployment where evaluating OPE is impossible; (2) identifies the sub-group in the dataset where OPE can be inaccurate; (3) permits evaluations of datasets or data-collection strategies for OPE problems. Our empirical analysis of DataCOPE in the logged contextual bandit settings using healthcare datasets confirms its ability to evaluate both machine-learning and human expert policies like clinical guidelines. Finally, we apply DataCOPE to the task of reward modeling in Large Language Model alignment to demonstrate its scalability in real-world applications.

Alicia Curth, Alihan Hüyük, Mihaela van der Schaar

We study the problem of adaptively identifying patient subpopulations that benefit from a given treatment during a confirmatory clinical trial. This type of adaptive clinical trial has been thoroughly studied in biostatistics, but has been allowed only limited adaptivity so far. Here, we aim to relax classical restrictions on such designs and investigate how to incorporate ideas from the recent machine learning literature on adaptive and online experimentation to make trials more flexible and efficient. We find that the unique characteristics of the subpopulation selection problem -- most importantly that (i) one is usually interested in finding subpopulations with any treatment benefit (and not necessarily the single subgroup with largest effect) given a limited budget and that (ii) effectiveness only has to be demonstrated across the subpopulation on average -- give rise to interesting challenges and new desiderata when designing algorithmic solutions. Building on these findings, we propose AdaGGI and AdaGCPI, two meta-algorithms for subpopulation construction. We empirically investigate their performance across a range of simulation scenarios and derive insights into their (dis)advantages across different settings.

Alihan Hüyük, Arndt Ryo Koblitz, Atefeh Mohajeri et al.

In image-based reinforcement learning (RL), policies usually operate in two steps: first extracting lower-dimensional features from raw images (the "recognition" step), and then taking actions based on the extracted features (the "decision" step). Extracting features that are spuriously correlated with performance or irrelevant for decision-making can lead to poor generalization performance, known as observational overfitting in image-based RL. In such cases, it can be hard to quantify how much of the error can be attributed to poor feature extraction vs. poor decision-making. To disentangle the two sources of error, we introduce the notions of recognition regret and decision regret. Using these notions, we characterize and disambiguate the two distinct causes behind observational overfitting: over-specific representations, which include features that are not needed for optimal decision-making (leading to high decision regret), vs. under-specific representations, which only include a limited set of features that were spuriously correlated with performance during training (leading to high recognition regret). Finally, we provide illustrative examples of observational overfitting due to both over-specific and under-specific representations in maze environments and the Atari game Pong.

Alihan Hüyük, Qiyao Wei, Alicia Curth et al.

Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help make inferences within the same domain: Knowing doctors try to prescribe the best treatment for their patients, we can tell treatments prescribed more frequently are likely to be more effective. Yet in machine learning, the fact that most decision-makers are experts is often overlooked, and "expertise" is seldom leveraged as an inductive bias. This is especially true for the literature on treatment effect estimation, where often the only assumption made about actions is that of overlap. In this paper, we argue that expertise - particularly the type of expertise the decision-makers of a domain are likely to have - can be informative in designing and selecting methods for treatment effect estimation. We formally define two types of expertise, predictive and prognostic, and demonstrate empirically that: (i) the prominent type of expertise in a domain significantly influences the performance of different methods in treatment effect estimation, and (ii) it is possible to predict the type of expertise present in a dataset, which can provide a quantitative basis for model selection.

Alihan Hüyük, Zhaozhi Qian, Mihaela van der Schaar

Clinical trials are typically run in order to understand the effects of a new treatment on a given population of patients. However, patients in large populations rarely respond the same way to the same treatment. This heterogeneity in patient responses necessitates trials that investigate effects on multiple subpopulations - especially when a treatment has marginal or no benefit for the overall population but might have significant benefit for a particular subpopulation. Motivated by this need, we propose Syntax, an exploratory trial design that identifies subpopulations with positive treatment effect among many subpopulations. Syntax is sample efficient as it (i) recruits and allocates patients adaptively and (ii) estimates treatment effects by forming synthetic controls for each subpopulation that combines control samples from other subpopulations. We validate the performance of Syntax and provide insights into when it might have an advantage over conventional trial designs through experiments.

Jacqueline R. M. A. Maasch, Alihan Hüyük, Xinnuo Xu et al.

Causal reasoning and compositional reasoning are two core aspirations in AI. Measuring the extent of these behaviors requires principled evaluation methods. We explore a unified perspective that considers both behaviors simultaneously, termed compositional causal reasoning (CCR): the ability to infer how causal measures compose and, equivalently, how causal quantities propagate through graphs. We instantiate a framework for the systematic evaluation of CCR for the average treatment effect and the probability of necessity and sufficiency. As proof of concept, we demonstrate CCR evaluation for language models in the LLama, Phi, and GPT families. On a math word problem, our framework revealed a range of taxonomically distinct error patterns. CCR errors increased with the complexity of causal paths for all models except o1.

Omer Noy Klein, Alihan Hüyük, Ron Shamir et al.

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating the effect of new medical treatments. Treatments must pass stringent regulatory conditions in order to be approved for widespread use, yet even after the regulatory barriers are crossed, real-world challenges might arise: Who should get the treatment? What is its true clinical utility? Are there discrepancies in the treatment effectiveness across diverse and under-served populations? We introduce two new objectives for future clinical trials that integrate regulatory constraints and treatment policy value for both the entire population and under-served populations, thus answering some of the questions above in advance. Designed to meet these objectives, we formulate Randomize First Augment Next (RFAN), a new framework for designing Phase III clinical trials. Our framework consists of a standard randomized component followed by an adaptive one, jointly meant to efficiently and safely acquire and assign patients into treatment arms during the trial. Then, we propose strategies for implementing RFAN based on causal, deep Bayesian active learning. Finally, we empirically evaluate the performance of our framework using synthetic and real-world semi-synthetic datasets.

Alihan Hüyük, Finale Doshi-Velez

Long-term planning, as in reinforcement learning (RL), involves finding strategies: actions that collectively work toward a goal rather than individually optimizing their immediate outcomes. As part of a strategy, some actions are taken at the expense of short-term benefit to enable future actions with even greater returns. These actions are only advantageous if followed up by the actions they facilitate, consequently, they would not have been taken if those follow-ups were not available. In this paper, we quantify such dependencies between planned actions with strategic link scores: the drop in the likelihood of one decision under the constraint that a follow-up decision is no longer available. We demonstrate the utility of strategic link scores through three practical applications: (i) explaining black-box RL agents by identifying strategically linked pairs among decisions they make, (ii) improving the worst-case performance of decision support systems by distinguishing whether recommended actions can be adopted as standalone improvements or whether they are strategically linked hence requiring a commitment to a broader strategy to be effective, and (iii) characterizing the planning processes of non-RL agents purely through interventions aimed at measuring strategic link scores - as an example, we consider a realistic traffic simulator and analyze through road closures the effective planning horizon of the emergent routing behavior of many drivers.

Hiwot Belay Tadesse, Alihan Hüyük, Yaniv Yacoby et al.

When explaining black-box machine learning models, it's often important for explanations to have certain desirable properties. Most existing methods `encourage' desirable properties in their construction of explanations. In this work, we demonstrate that these forms of encouragement do not consistently create explanations with the properties that are supposedly being targeted. Moreover, they do not allow for any control over which properties are prioritized when different properties are at odds with each other. We propose to directly optimize explanations for desired properties. Our direct approach not only produces explanations with optimal properties more consistently but also empowers users to control trade-offs between different properties, allowing them to create explanations with exactly what is needed for a particular task.

Alihan Hüyük, William R. Zame, Mihaela van der Schaar

Modeling the preferences of agents over a set of alternatives is a principal concern in many areas. The dominant approach has been to find a single reward/utility function with the property that alternatives yielding higher rewards are preferred over alternatives yielding lower rewards. However, in many settings, preferences are based on multiple, often competing, objectives; a single reward function is not adequate to represent such preferences. This paper proposes a method for inferring multi-objective reward-based representations of an agent's observed preferences. We model the agent's priorities over different objectives as entering lexicographically, so that objectives with lower priorities matter only when the agent is indifferent with respect to objectives with higher priorities. We offer two example applications in healthcare, one inspired by cancer treatment, the other inspired by organ transplantation, to illustrate how the lexicographically-ordered rewards we learn can provide a better understanding of a decision-maker's preferences and help improve policies when used in reinforcement learning.

Alihan Hüyük, Daniel Jarrett, Mihaela van der Schaar

Understanding a decision-maker's priorities by observing their behavior is critical for transparency and accountability in decision processes, such as in healthcare. Though conventional approaches to policy learning almost invariably assume stationarity in behavior, this is hardly true in practice: Medical practice is constantly evolving as clinical professionals fine-tune their knowledge over time. For instance, as the medical community's understanding of organ transplantations has progressed over the years, a pertinent question is: How have actual organ allocation policies been evolving? To give an answer, we desire a policy learning method that provides interpretable representations of decision-making, in particular capturing an agent's non-stationary knowledge of the world, as well as operating in an offline manner. First, we model the evolving behavior of decision-makers in terms of contextual bandits, and formalize the problem of Inverse Contextual Bandits (ICB). Second, we propose two concrete algorithms as solutions, learning parametric and nonparametric representations of an agent's behavior. Finally, using both real and simulated data for liver transplantations, we illustrate the applicability and explainability of our method, as well as benchmarking and validating its accuracy.

Ioana Bica, Daniel Jarrett, Alihan Hüyük et al.

Building interpretable parameterizations of real-world decision-making on the basis of demonstrated behavior -- i.e. trajectories of observations and actions made by an expert maximizing some unknown reward function -- is essential for introspecting and auditing policies in different institutions. In this paper, we propose learning explanations of expert decisions by modeling their reward function in terms of preferences with respect to "what if" outcomes: Given the current history of observations, what would happen if we took a particular action? To learn these cost-benefit tradeoffs associated with the expert's actions, we integrate counterfactual reasoning into batch inverse reinforcement learning. This offers a principled way of defining reward functions and explaining expert behavior, and also satisfies the constraints of real-world decision-making -- where active experimentation is often impossible (e.g. in healthcare). Additionally, by estimating the effects of different actions, counterfactuals readily tackle the off-policy nature of policy evaluation in the batch setting, and can naturally accommodate settings where the expert policies depend on histories of observations rather than just current states. Through illustrative experiments in both real and simulated medical environments, we highlight the effectiveness of our batch, counterfactual inverse reinforcement learning approach in recovering accurate and interpretable descriptions of behavior.

Alihan Hüyük, Cem Tekin

We consider a multiobjective multiarmed bandit problem with lexicographically ordered objectives. In this problem, the goal of the learner is to select arms that are lexicographic optimal as much as possible without knowing the arm reward distributions beforehand. We capture this goal by defining a multidimensional form of regret that measures the loss of the learner due to not selecting lexicographic optimal arms, and then, consider two settings where the learner has prior information on the expected arm rewards. In the first setting, the learner only knows for each objective the lexicographic optimal expected reward. In the second setting, it only knows for each objective near-lexicographic optimal expected rewards. For both settings we prove that the learner achieves expected regret uniformly bounded in time. The algorithm we propose for the second setting also attains bounded regret for the multiarmed bandit with satisficing objectives. In addition, we also consider the harder prior-free case, and show that the learner can still achieve sublinear in time gap-free regret. Finally, we experimentally evaluate performance of the proposed algorithms in a variety of multiobjective learning problems.

Alihan Hüyük, Cem Tekin

Influence maximization, adaptive routing, and dynamic spectrum allocation all require choosing the right action from a large set of alternatives. Thanks to the advances in combinatorial optimization, these and many similar problems can be efficiently solved given an environment with known stochasticity. In this paper, we take this one step further and focus on combinatorial optimization in unknown environments. We consider a very general learning framework called combinatorial multi-armed bandit with probabilistically triggered arms and a very powerful Bayesian algorithm called Combinatorial Thompson Sampling (CTS). Under the semi-bandit feedback model and assuming access to an oracle without knowing the expected base arm outcomes beforehand, we show that when the expected reward is Lipschitz continuous in the expected base arm outcomes CTS achieves $O(\sum_{i =1}^m\log T/(p_iΔ_i))$ regret and $O(\max\{\mathbb{E}[m\sqrt{T\log T/p^*}],\mathbb{E}[m^2/p^*]\})$ Bayesian regret, where $m$ denotes the number of base arms, $p_i$ and $Δ_i$ denote the minimum non-zero triggering probability and the minimum suboptimality gap of base arm $i$ respectively, $T$ denotes the time horizon, and $p^*$ denotes the overall minimum non-zero triggering probability. We also show that when the expected reward satisfies the triggering probability modulated Lipschitz continuity, CTS achieves $O(\max\{m\sqrt{T\log T},m^2\})$ Bayesian regret, and when triggering probabilities are non-zero for all base arms, CTS achieves $O(1/p^*\log(1/p^*))$ regret independent of the time horizon. Finally, we numerically compare CTS with algorithms based on upper confidence bounds in several networking problems and show that CTS outperforms these algorithms by at least an order of magnitude in majority of the cases.

Alihan Hüyük, Cem Tekin

We analyze the regret of combinatorial Thompson sampling (CTS) for the combinatorial multi-armed bandit with probabilistically triggered arms under the semi-bandit feedback setting. We assume that the learner has access to an exact optimization oracle but does not know the expected base arm outcomes beforehand. When the expected reward function is Lipschitz continuous in the expected base arm outcomes, we derive $O(\sum_{i =1}^m \log T / (p_i Δ_i))$ regret bound for CTS, where $m$ denotes the number of base arms, $p_i$ denotes the minimum non-zero triggering probability of base arm $i$ and $Δ_i$ denotes the minimum suboptimality gap of base arm $i$. We also compare CTS with combinatorial upper confidence bound (CUCB) via numerical experiments on a cascading bandit problem.