Mohamed Bouka

Mohamed Bouka, Moulaye Abdel Kader Moulaye Ismail

Recent disruptions at major maritime chokepoints have exposed the structural fragility of liner shipping networks. Existing indicators measure connectivity, but none quantify its structural vulnerability from a supply-side perspective. We propose the Maritime Connectivity Vulnerability Index (MCVI), capturing three dimensions mapped to distinct UNCTAD sources: low overall connectivity (LSCI), weak bilateral integration (LSBCI), and port infrastructure concentration (PLSCI). The index covers 185 economies over 2006-2025 using pooled fractional rank normalization and equal-weight aggregation from publicly available data. SIDS exhibit a mean vulnerability 0.234 points above non-SIDS economies, with the gap widening from 0.232 to 0.249 over two decades. A modest global decline of 4.2% is observed. Port concentration dominates for nearly 40% of economies (72 of 185), establishing infrastructure diversification as a distinct policy priority. Rankings are highly stable across alternative weighting schemes, normalization methods (Spearman rho = 0.97-0.999), and PCA-derived weights; Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 replications) confirms rho > 0.95 in every realization. External validation shows strong negative correlation with the World Bank Logistics Performance Index (rho = -0.61 across seven waves) and positive correlation with ad valorem maritime freight rates (rho = +0.32). Panel regressions reveal a vulnerability paradox whereby small trade-dependent economies are simultaneously the most trade-open and the most vulnerable. Pre-crisis MCVI predicts trade losses during the COVID-19 supply shock (rho = -0.25, p < 0.005), while the contrasting positive correlation during the 2008-2009 demand shock (rho = +0.23, p = 0.01) validates the supply-side specificity of the index.

Mohamed Bouka, Moulaye Abdel Kader Ould Moulaye Ismail

Small, trade-dependent economies often exhibit limited maritime connectivity, yet empirical evidence on the structural configuration of their container systems remains limited. This study analyzes route concentration and node distributions in Mauritania's maritime container system during 2019-2022 using shipment-level data measured in forty-foot equivalent units (FFE). Routes, origin nodes, destination nodes, and industries are represented as FFE-weighted probability distributions, and concentration and divergence metrics are used to assess structural properties. The results show strong corridor concentration across the seven observed routes (HHI = 0.296), with the top three accounting for approximately 84% of total FFE. Node structures differ by direction: imports are associated with a highly concentrated set of destination nodes (HHI = 0.848), while exports originate from only two origin nodes (HHI = 0.567) and are distributed across a large number of destinations (HHI = 0.053). Industry distributions are more concentrated for exports (HHI = 0.352) than for imports (HHI = 0.096), with frozen fish and seafood accounting for more than 53% of export volume. Temporal analysis shows that route concentration remains stable over time (HHI ~ 0.293-0.303), while node distributions exhibit measurable variation, particularly for export destinations (JSD ~ 0.395) and import origins (JSD ~ 0.250).