Uwe Aickelin

Mehedi Hasan, Moloud Abdar, Abbas Khosravi et al.

Although neural networks (especially deep neural networks) have achieved \textit{better-than-human} performance in many fields, their real-world deployment is still questionable due to the lack of awareness about the limitation in their knowledge. To incorporate such awareness in the machine learning model, prediction with reject option (also known as selective classification or classification with abstention) has been proposed in literature. In this paper, we present a systematic review of the prediction with the reject option in the context of various neural networks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study focusing on this aspect of neural networks. Moreover, we discuss different novel loss functions related to the reject option and post-training processing (if any) of network output for generating suitable measurements for knowledge awareness of the model. Finally, we address the application of the rejection option in reducing the prediction time for the real-time problems and present a comprehensive summary of the techniques related to the reject option in the context of extensive variety of neural networks. Our code is available on GitHub: \url{https://github.com/MehediHasanTutul/Reject_option}

Xuetong Wu, Jonathan H. Manton, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Transfer learning, or domain adaptation, is concerned with machine learning problems in which training and testing data come from possibly different probability distributions. In this work, we give an information-theoretic analysis of the generalization error and excess risk of transfer learning algorithms. Our results suggest, perhaps as expected, that the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence $D(μ\|μ')$ plays an important role in the characterizations where $μ$ and $μ'$ denote the distribution of the training data and the testing data, respectively. Specifically, we provide generalization error and excess risk upper bounds for learning algorithms where data from both distributions are available in the training phase. Recognizing that the bounds could be sub-optimal in general, we provide improved excess risk upper bounds for a certain class of algorithms, including the empirical risk minimization (ERM) algorithm, by making stronger assumptions through the \textit{central condition}. To demonstrate the usefulness of the bounds, we further extend the analysis to the Gibbs algorithm and the noisy stochastic gradient descent method. We then generalize the mutual information bound with other divergences such as $φ$-divergence and Wasserstein distance, which may lead to tighter bounds and can handle the case when $μ$ is not absolutely continuous with respect to $μ'$. Several numerical results are provided to demonstrate our theoretical findings. Lastly, to address the problem that the bounds are often not directly applicable in practice due to the absence of the distributional knowledge of the data, we develop an algorithm (called InfoBoost) that dynamically adjusts the importance weights for both source and target data based on certain information measures. The empirical results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Yuan Sun, Su Nguyen, Dhananjay Thiruvady et al.

Constraint programming (CP) is a powerful technique for solving constraint satisfaction and optimization problems. In CP solvers, the variable ordering strategy used to select which variable to explore first in the solving process has a significant impact on solver effectiveness. To address this issue, we propose a novel variable ordering strategy based on supervised learning, which we evaluate in the context of job shop scheduling problems. Our learning-based methods predict the optimal solution of a problem instance and use the predicted solution to order variables for CP solvers. \added[]{Unlike traditional variable ordering methods, our methods can learn from the characteristics of each problem instance and customize the variable ordering strategy accordingly, leading to improved solver performance.} Our experiments demonstrate that training machine learning models is highly efficient and can achieve high accuracy. Furthermore, our learned variable ordering methods perform competitively when compared to four existing methods. Finally, we demonstrate that hybridising the machine learning-based variable ordering methods with traditional domain-based methods is beneficial.

Xuetong Wu, Jonathan H. Manton, Uwe Aickelin et al.

A recent line of works, initiated by Russo and Xu, has shown that the generalization error of a learning algorithm can be upper bounded by information measures. In most of the relevant works, the convergence rate of the expected generalization error is in the form of O(sqrt{lambda/n}) where lambda is some information-theoretic quantities such as the mutual information between the data sample and the learned hypothesis. However, such a learning rate is typically considered to be "slow", compared to a "fast rate" of O(1/n) in many learning scenarios. In this work, we first show that the square root does not necessarily imply a slow rate, and a fast rate (O(1/n)) result can still be obtained using this bound under appropriate assumptions. Furthermore, we identify the key conditions needed for the fast rate generalization error, which we call the (eta,c)-central condition. Under this condition, we give information-theoretic bounds on the generalization error and excess risk, with a convergence rate of O(λ/{n}) for specific learning algorithms such as empirical risk minimization. Finally, analytical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the bounds.

Yuan Sun, Winton Nathan-Roberts, Tien Dung Pham et al.

In biomanufacturing, developing an accurate model to simulate the complex dynamics of bioprocesses is an important yet challenging task. This is partially due to the uncertainty associated with bioprocesses, high data acquisition cost, and lack of data availability to learn complex relations in bioprocesses. To deal with these challenges, we propose to use a statistical machine learning approach, multi-fidelity Gaussian process, for process modelling in biomanufacturing. Gaussian process regression is a well-established technique based on probability theory which can naturally consider uncertainty in a dataset via Gaussian noise, and multi-fidelity techniques can make use of multiple sources of information with different levels of fidelity, thus suitable for bioprocess modeling with small data. We apply the multi-fidelity Gaussian process to solve two significant problems in biomanufacturing, bioreactor scale-up and knowledge transfer across cell lines, and demonstrate its efficacy on real-world datasets.

Xuetong Wu, Mingming Gong, Jonathan H. Manton et al.

Recent advancements in unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) and semi-supervised learning (SSL), particularly incorporating causality, have led to significant methodological improvements in these learning problems. However, a formal theory that explains the role of causality in the generalization performance of UDA/SSL is still lacking. In this paper, we consider the UDA/SSL scenarios where we access $m$ labelled source data and $n$ unlabelled target data as training instances under different causal settings with a parametric probabilistic model. We study the learning performance (e.g., excess risk) of prediction in the target domain from an information-theoretic perspective. Specifically, we distinguish two scenarios: the learning problem is called causal learning if the feature is the cause and the label is the effect, and is called anti-causal learning otherwise. We show that in causal learning, the excess risk depends on the size of the source sample at a rate of $O(\frac{1}{m})$ only if the labelling distribution between the source and target domains remains unchanged. In anti-causal learning, we show that the unlabelled data dominate the performance at a rate of typically $O(\frac{1}{n})$. These results bring out the relationship between the data sample size and the hardness of the learning problem with different causal mechanisms.

Xuetong Wu, Jonathan H. Manton, Uwe Aickelin et al.

The generalization error of a learning algorithm refers to the discrepancy between the loss of a learning algorithm on training data and that on unseen testing data. Various information-theoretic bounds on the generalization error have been derived in the literature, where the mutual information between the training data and the hypothesis (the output of the learning algorithm) plays an important role. Focusing on the individual sample mutual information bound by Bu et al., which itself is a tightened version of the first bound on the topic by Russo et al. and Xu et al., this paper investigates the tightness of these bounds, in terms of the dependence of their convergence rates on the sample size $n$. It has been recognized that these bounds are in general not tight, readily verified for the exemplary quadratic Gaussian mean estimation problem, where the individual sample mutual information bound scales as $O(\sqrt{1/n})$ while the true generalization error scales as $O(1/n)$. The first contribution of this paper is to show that the same bound can in fact be asymptotically tight if an appropriate assumption is made. In particular, we show that the fast rate can be recovered when the assumption is made on the excess risk instead of the loss function, which was usually done in existing literature. A theoretical justification is given for this choice. The second contribution of the paper is a new set of generalization error bounds based on the $(η, c)$-central condition, a condition relatively easy to verify and has the property that the mutual information term directly determines the convergence rate of the bound. Several analytical and numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of these bounds.

Xuan-May Le, Ling Luo, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Multivariate time series classification (MTSC) has attracted significant research attention due to its diverse real-world applications. Recently, exploiting transformers for MTSC has achieved state-of-the-art performance. However, existing methods focus on generic features, providing a comprehensive understanding of data, but they ignore class-specific features crucial for learning the representative characteristics of each class. This leads to poor performance in the case of imbalanced datasets or datasets with similar overall patterns but differing in minor class-specific details. In this paper, we propose a novel Shapelet Transformer (ShapeFormer), which comprises class-specific and generic transformer modules to capture both of these features. In the class-specific module, we introduce the discovery method to extract the discriminative subsequences of each class (i.e. shapelets) from the training set. We then propose a Shapelet Filter to learn the difference features between these shapelets and the input time series. We found that the difference feature for each shapelet contains important class-specific features, as it shows a significant distinction between its class and others. In the generic module, convolution filters are used to extract generic features that contain information to distinguish among all classes. For each module, we employ the transformer encoder to capture the correlation between their features. As a result, the combination of two transformer modules allows our model to exploit the power of both types of features, thereby enhancing the classification performance. Our experiments on 30 UEA MTSC datasets demonstrate that ShapeFormer has achieved the highest accuracy ranking compared to state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/xuanmay2701/shapeformer.

Navid Akhavan Attar, Hesam Asadollahzadeh, Ling Luo et al.

The merit of Conformal Prediction (CP), as a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification, depends on generating prediction sets that are efficient, reflected in small average set sizes, while adaptive, meaning they signal uncertainty by varying in size according to input difficulty. A central limitation for deep conformal classifiers is that the nonconformity scores are derived from softmax outputs, which can be unreliable indicators of how certain the model truly is about a given input, sometimes leading to overconfident misclassifications or undue hesitation. In this work, we argue that this unreliability can be inherited by the prediction sets generated by CP, limiting their capacity for adaptiveness. We propose a new approach that leverages information from the pre-softmax logit space, using the Helmholtz Free Energy as a measure of model uncertainty and sample difficulty. By reweighting nonconformity scores with a monotonic transformation of the energy score of each sample, we improve their sensitivity to input difficulty. Our experiments with four state-of-the-art score functions on multiple datasets and deep architectures show that this energy-based enhancement improves the adaptiveness of the prediction sets, leading to a notable increase in both efficiency and adaptiveness compared to baseline nonconformity scores, without introducing any post-hoc complexity.

Yuhao Li, Ling Luo, Uwe Aickelin

Medical research, particularly in predicting patient outcomes, heavily relies on medical time series data extracted from Electronic Health Records (EHR), which provide extensive information on patient histories. Despite rigorous examination, labeling errors are inevitable and can significantly impede accurate predictions of patient outcome. To address this challenge, we propose an \textbf{A}ttention-based Learning Framework with Dynamic \textbf{C}alibration and Augmentation for \textbf{T}ime series Noisy \textbf{L}abel \textbf{L}earning (ACTLL). This framework leverages a two-component Beta mixture model to identify the certain and uncertain sets of instances based on the fitness distribution of each class, and it captures global temporal dynamics while dynamically calibrating labels from the uncertain set or augmenting confident instances from the certain set. Experimental results on large-scale EHR datasets eICU and MIMIC-IV-ED, and several benchmark datasets from the UCR and UEA repositories, demonstrate that our model ACTLL has achieved state-of-the-art performance, especially under high noise levels.

Xuan-May Le, Ling Luo, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Patient-ventilator asynchrony (PVA) is a common and critical issue during mechanical ventilation, affecting up to 85% of patients. PVA can result in clinical complications such as discomfort, sleep disruption, and potentially more severe conditions like ventilator-induced lung injury and diaphragm dysfunction. Traditional PVA management, which relies on manual adjustments by healthcare providers, is often inadequate due to delays and errors. While various computational methods, including rule-based, statistical, and deep learning approaches, have been developed to detect PVA events, they face challenges related to dataset imbalances and lack of interpretability. In this work, we propose a shapelet-based approach SHIP for PVA detection, utilizing shapelets - discriminative subsequences in time-series data - to enhance detection accuracy and interpretability. Our method addresses dataset imbalances through shapelet-based data augmentation and constructs a shapelet pool to transform the dataset for more effective classification. The combined shapelet and statistical features are then used in a classifier to identify PVA events. Experimental results on medical datasets show that SHIP significantly improves PVA detection while providing interpretable insights into model decisions.

Zahra Ghasemi, Hadi Akbarzadeh Khorshidi, Uwe Aickelin

This study concentrates on clustering problems and aims to find compact clusters that are informative regarding the outcome variable. The main goal is partitioning data points so that observations in each cluster are similar and the outcome variable can be predicated using these clusters simultaneously. We model this semi-supervised clustering problem as a multi-objective optimization problem with considering deviation of data points in clusters and prediction error of the outcome variable as two objective functions to be minimized. For finding optimal clustering solutions, we employ a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II approach and local regression is applied as prediction method for the output variable. For comparing the performance of the proposed model, we compute seven models using five real-world data sets. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of using local regression for predicting the outcome variable in all models, and examine the performance of the multi-objective models compared to single-objective models.

Xuetong Wu, Jonathan H. Manton, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Transfer learning is a machine learning paradigm where knowledge from one problem is utilized to solve a new but related problem. While conceivable that knowledge from one task could be useful for solving a related task, if not executed properly, transfer learning algorithms can impair the learning performance instead of improving it -- commonly known as negative transfer. In this paper, we study transfer learning from a Bayesian perspective, where a parametric statistical model is used. Specifically, we study three variants of transfer learning problems, instantaneous, online, and time-variant transfer learning. For each problem, we define an appropriate objective function, and provide either exact expressions or upper bounds on the learning performance using information-theoretic quantities, which allow simple and explicit characterizations when the sample size becomes large. Furthermore, examples show that the derived bounds are accurate even for small sample sizes. The obtained bounds give valuable insights into the effect of prior knowledge for transfer learning, at least with respect to our Bayesian formulation of the transfer learning problem. In particular, we formally characterize the conditions under which negative transfer occurs. Lastly, we devise two (online) transfer learning algorithms that are amenable to practical implementations, one of which does not require the parametric assumption. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms with real data sets, focusing primarily on when the source and target data have strong similarities.

Mahdi Fahmideh, John Grundy, Aakash Ahmed et al.

Many scientific and practical areas have shown increasing interest in reaping the benefits of blockchain technology to empower software systems. However, the unique characteristics and requirements associated with Blockchain Based Software (BBS) systems raise new challenges across the development lifecycle that entail an extensive improvement of conventional software engineering. This article presents a systematic literature review of the state-of-the-art in BBS engineering research from a software engineering perspective. We characterize BBS engineering from the theoretical foundations, processes, models, and roles and discuss a rich repertoire of key development activities, principles, challenges, and techniques. The focus and depth of this survey not only gives software engineering practitioners and researchers a consolidated body of knowledge about current BBS development but also underpins a starting point for further research in this field.

Xuetong Wu, Jonathan H. Manton, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Transfer learning is a machine learning paradigm where the knowledge from one task is utilized to resolve the problem in a related task. On the one hand, it is conceivable that knowledge from one task could be useful for solving a related problem. On the other hand, it is also recognized that if not executed properly, transfer learning algorithms could in fact impair the learning performance instead of improving it - commonly known as "negative transfer". In this paper, we study the online transfer learning problems where the source samples are given in an offline way while the target samples arrive sequentially. We define the expected regret of the online transfer learning problem and provide upper bounds on the regret using information-theoretic quantities. We also obtain exact expressions for the bounds when the sample size becomes large. Examples show that the derived bounds are accurate even for small sample sizes. Furthermore, the obtained bounds give valuable insight on the effect of prior knowledge for transfer learning in our formulation. In particular, we formally characterize the conditions under which negative transfer occurs.

Goce Ristanoski, Jon Emery, Javiera Martinez-Gutierrez et al.

More than 144 000 Australians were diagnosed with cancer in 2019. The majority will first present to their GP symptomatically, even for cancer for which screening programs exist. Diagnosing cancer in primary care is challenging due to the non-specific nature of cancer symptoms and its low prevalence. Understanding the epidemiology of cancer symptoms and patterns of presentation in patient's medical history from primary care data could be important to improve earlier detection and cancer outcomes. As past medical data about a patient can be incomplete, irregular or missing, this creates additional challenges when attempting to use the patient's history for any new diagnosis. Our research aims to investigate the opportunities in a patient's pathology history available to a GP, initially focused on the results within the frequently ordered full blood count to determine relevance to a future high-risk cancer prognosis, and treatment outcome. We investigated how past pathology test results can lead to deriving features that can be used to predict cancer outcomes, with emphasis on patients at risk of not surviving the cancer within 2-year period. This initial work focuses on patients with lung cancer, although the methodology can be applied to other types of cancer and other data within the medical record. Our findings indicate that even in cases of incomplete or obscure patient history, hematological measures can be useful in generating features relevant for predicting cancer risk and survival. The results strongly indicate to add the use of pathology test data for potential high-risk cancer diagnosis, and the utilize additional pathology metrics or other primary care datasets even more for similar purposes.

Yuxuan, Yang, Hadi Akbarzadeh Khorshidi et al.

Surgical risk increases significantly when patients present with comorbid conditions. This has resulted in the creation of numerous risk stratification tools with the objective of formulating associated surgical risk to assist both surgeons and patients in decision-making. The Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) is one of the tools developed to predict mortality risk throughout the entire perioperative period for major elective in-patient surgeries in the UK. In this study, we enhance the original SORT prediction model (UK SORT) by addressing the class imbalance within the dataset. Our proposed method investigates the application of diversity-based selection on top of common re-sampling techniques to enhance the classifier's capability in detecting minority (mortality) events. Diversity amongst training datasets is an essential factor in ensuring re-sampled data keeps an accurate depiction of the minority/majority class region, thereby solving the generalization problem of mainstream sampling approaches. We incorporate the use of the Solow-Polasky measure as a drop-in functionality to evaluate diversity, with the addition of greedy algorithms to identify and discard subsets that share the most similarity. Additionally, through empirical experiments, we prove that the performance of the classifier trained over diversity-based dataset outperforms the original classifier over ten external datasets. Our diversity-based re-sampling method elevates the performance of the UK SORT algorithm by 1.4$.

Mansoureh Maadia, Uwe Aickelin, Hadi Akbarzadeh Khorshidi

The main aim in ensemble learning is using multiple individual classifiers outputs rather than one classifier output to aggregate them for more accurate classification. Generating an ensemble classifier generally is composed of three steps: selecting the base classifier, applying a sampling strategy to generate different individual classifiers and aggregation the classifiers outputs. This paper focuses on the classifiers outputs aggregation step and presents a new interval-based aggregation modeling using bagging resampling approach and Interval Agreement Approach (IAA) in ensemble learning. IAA is an interesting and practical aggregation approach in decision making which was introduced to combine decision makers opinions when they present their opinions by intervals. In this paper, in addition to implementing a new aggregation approach in ensemble learning, we designed some experiments to encourage researchers to use interval modeling in ensemble learning because it preserves more uncertainty and this leads to more accurate classification. For this purpose, we compared the results of implementing the proposed method to the majority vote as the most common and successful aggregation function in the literature on 10 medical data sets to show the better performance of the interval modeling and the proposed interval-based aggregation function in binary classification when it comes to ensemble learning. The results confirm the good performance of our proposed approach.

J Liu, R Bai, Z Lu et al.

In medical fields, text classification is one of the most important tasks that can significantly reduce human workload through structured information digitization and intelligent decision support. Despite the popularity of learning-based text classification techniques, it is hard for human to understand or manually fine-tune the classification results for better precision and recall, due to the black box nature of learning. This study proposes a novel regular expression-based text classification method making use of genetic programming (GP) approaches to evolve regular expressions that can classify a given medical text inquiry with satisfactory precision and recall while allow human to read the classifier and fine-tune accordingly if necessary. Given a seed population of regular expressions (can be randomly initialized or manually constructed by experts), our method evolves a population of regular expressions according to chosen fitness function, using a novel regular expression syntax and a series of carefully chosen reproduction operators. Our method is evaluated with real-life medical text inquiries from an online healthcare provider and shows promising performance. More importantly, our method generates classifiers that can be fully understood, checked and updated by medical doctors, which are fundamentally crucial for medical related practices.

Justin Kane Gunn, Hadi Akbarzadeh Khorshidi, Uwe Aickelin

This paper presents a method to compute the degree of similarity between two aggregated fuzzy numbers from intervals using the Interval Agreement Approach (IAA). The similarity measure proposed within this study contains several features and attributes, of which are novel to aggregated fuzzy numbers. The attributes completely redefined or modified within this study include area, perimeter, centroids, quartiles and the agreement ratio. The recommended weighting for each feature has been learned using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Furthermore, an illustrative example is provided to detail the application and potential future use of the similarity measure.

Hadi A. Khorshidi, Michael Kirley, Uwe Aickelin

Machine learning techniques have been developed to learn from complete data. When missing values exist in a dataset, the incomplete data should be preprocessed separately by removing data points with missing values or imputation. In this paper, we propose an online approach to handle missing values while a classification model is learnt. To reach this goal, we develop a multi-objective optimization model with two objective functions for imputation and model selection. We also propose three formulations for imputation objective function. We use an evolutionary algorithm based on NSGA II to find the optimal solutions as the Pareto solutions. We investigate the reliability and robustness of the proposed model using experiments by defining several scenarios in dealing with missing values and classification. We also describe how the proposed model can contribute to medical informatics. We compare the performance of three different formulations via experimental results. The proposed model results get validated by comparing with a comparable literature.

Justin Kane Gunn, Hadi Akbarzadeh Khorshidi, Uwe Aickelin

This paper primarily presents two methods of ranking aggregated fuzzy numbers from intervals using the Interval Agreement Approach (IAA). The two proposed ranking methods within this study contain the combination and application of previously proposed similarity measures, along with attributes novel to that of aggregated fuzzy numbers from interval-valued data. The shortcomings of previous measures, along with the improvements of the proposed methods, are illustrated using both a synthetic and real-world application. The real-world application regards the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) algorithm, modified to include both the previous and newly proposed methods.

Ning Xue, Ruibin Bai, Rong Qu et al.

Full truckload transportation (FTL) in the form of freight containers represents one of the most important transportation modes in international trade. Due to large volume and scale, in FTL, delivery time is often less critical but cost and service quality are crucial. Therefore, efficiently solving large scale multiple shift FTL problems is becoming more and more important and requires further research. In one of our earlier studies, a set covering model and a three-stage solution method were developed for a multi-shift FTL problem. This paper extends the previous work and presents a significantly more efficient approach by hybridising pricing and cutting strategies with metaheuristics (a variable neighbourhood search and a genetic algorithm). The metaheuristics were adopted to find promising columns (vehicle routes) guided by pricing and cuts are dynamically generated to eliminate infeasible flow assignments caused by incompatible commodities. Computational experiments on real-life and artificial benchmark FTL problems showed superior performance both in terms of computational time and solution quality, when compared with previous MIP based three-stage methods and two existing metaheuristics. The proposed cutting and heuristic pricing approach can efficiently solve large scale real-life FTL problems.

Xuetong Wu, Hadi Akbarzadeh Khorshidi, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Collecting sufficient labelled training data for health and medical problems is difficult (Antropova, et al., 2018). Also, missing values are unavoidable in health and medical datasets and tackling the problem arising from the inadequate instances and missingness is not straightforward (Snell, et al. 2017, Sterne, et al. 2009). However, machine learning algorithms have achieved significant success in many real-world healthcare problems, such as regression and classification and these techniques could possibly be a way to resolve the issues.

Hadi A. Khorshidi, Uwe Aickelin

In this study, we propose a multicriteria group decision making (MCGDM) algorithm under uncertainty where data is collected as intervals. The proposed MCGDM algorithm aggregates the data, determines the optimal weights for criteria and ranks alternatives with no further input. The intervals give flexibility to experts in assessing alternatives against criteria and provide an opportunity to gain maximum information. We also propose a novel method to aggregate expert judgements using cloud models. We introduce an experimental approach to check the validity of the aggregation method. After that, we use the aggregation method for an MCGDM problem. Here, we find the optimal weights for each criterion by proposing a bilevel optimisation model. Then, we extend the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) for data based on cloud models to prioritise alternatives. As a result, the algorithm can gain information from decision makers with different levels of uncertainty and examine alternatives with no more information from decision-makers. The proposed MCGDM algorithm is implemented on a case study of a cybersecurity problem to illustrate its feasibility and effectiveness. The results verify the robustness and validity of the proposed MCGDM using sensitivity analysis and comparison with other existing algorithms.

B Farhadinia, Uwe Aickelin, HA Khorshidi

Generally, the criteria involved in a decision making problem are interactive or inter-dependent, and therefore aggregating them by the use of traditional operators which are based on additive measures is not logical. This verifies that we have to implement fuzzy measures for modelling the interaction phenomena among the criteria.On the other hand, based on the recent extension of hesitant fuzzy set, called higher order hesitant fuzzy set (HOHFS) which allows the membership of a given element to be defined in forms of several possible generalized types of fuzzy set, we encourage to propose the higher order hesitant fuzzy (HOHF) Choquet integral operator. This concept not only considers the importance of the higher order hesitant fuzzy arguments, but also it can reflect the correlations among those arguments. Then,a detailed discussion on the aggregation properties of the HOHF Choquet integral operator will be presented.To enhance the application of HOHF Choquet integral operator in decision making, we first assess the appropriate energy policy for the socio-economic development. Then, the efficiency of the proposed HOHF Choquet integral operator-based technique over a number of exiting techniques is further verified by employing another decision making problem associated with the technique of TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of Interactive and Multicriteria Decision Making).

Bahram Farhadinia, Uwe Aickelin, Hadi Akbarzadeh Khorshidi

This contribution reviews critically the existing entropy measures for probabilistic hesitant fuzzy sets (PHFSs), and demonstrates that these entropy measures fail to effectively distinguish a variety of different PHFSs in some cases. In the sequel, we develop a new axiomatic framework of entropy measures for probabilistic hesitant fuzzy elements (PHFEs) by considering two facets of uncertainty associated with PHFEs which are known as fuzziness and nonspecificity. Respect to each kind of uncertainty, a number of formulae are derived to permit flexible selection of PHFE entropy measures. Moreover, based on the proposed PHFE entropy measures, we introduce some entropy-based distance measures which are used in the portion of comparative analysis.

Chaofan Tu, Ruibin Bai, Zheng Lu et al.

In this paper, we propose a rule-based engine composed of high quality and interpretable regular expressions for medical text classification. The regular expressions are auto generated by a constructive heuristic method and optimized using a Pool-based Simulated Annealing (PSA) approach. Although existing Deep Neural Network (DNN) methods present high quality performance in most Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications, the solutions are regarded as uninterpretable black boxes to humans. Therefore, rule-based methods are often introduced when interpretable solutions are needed, especially in the medical field. However, the construction of regular expressions can be extremely labor-intensive for large data sets. This research aims to reduce the manual efforts while maintaining high-quality solutions

Xiang Li, Xinyu Fu, Zheng Lu et al.

Internet hospital is a rising business thanks to recent advances in mobile web technology and high demand of health care services. Online medical services become increasingly popular and active. According to US data in 2018, 80 percent of internet users have asked health-related questions online. Numerous data is generated in unprecedented speed and scale. Those representative questions and answers in medical fields are valuable raw data sources for medical data mining. Automated machine interpretation on those sheer amount of data gives an opportunity to assist doctors to answer frequently asked medical-related questions from the perspective of information retrieval and machine learning approaches. In this work, we propose a novel two-stage framework for the semantic matching of query-level medical questions.

Hadi Akbarzadeh Khorshidi, Uwe Aickelin, Gholamreza Haffari et al.

This study develops a pattern recognition method that identifies patterns based on their similarity and their association with the outcome of interest. The practical purpose of developing this pattern recognition method is to group patients, who are injured in transport accidents, in the early stages post-injury. This grouping is based on distinctive patterns in health service use within the first week post-injury. The groups also provide predictive information towards the total cost of medication process. As a result, the group of patients who have undesirable outcomes are identified as early as possible based health service use patterns.

Xuetong Wu, Hadi Akbarzadeh Khorshidi, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Clinical decision support using data mining techniques offers more intelligent way to reduce the decision error in the last few years. However, clinical datasets often suffer from high missingness, which adversely impacts the quality of modelling if handled improperly. Imputing missing values provides an opportunity to resolve the issue. Conventional imputation methods adopt simple statistical analysis, such as mean imputation or discarding missing cases, which have many limitations and thus degrade the performance of learning. This study examines a series of machine learning based imputation methods and suggests an efficient approach to in preparing a good quality breast cancer (BC) dataset, to find the relationship between BC treatment and chemotherapy-related amenorrhoea, where the performance is evaluated with the accuracy of the prediction.

Chris Roadknight, Prapa Rattadilok, Uwe Aickelin

Much of the teaching of machine learning focuses on iterative hill-climbing approaches and the use of local knowledge to gain information leading to local or global maxima. In this paper we advocate the teaching of alternative methods of generalising to the best possible solution, including a method called anti-learning. By using simple teaching methods, students can achieve a deeper understanding of the importance of validation on data excluded from the training process and that each problem requires its own methods to solve. We also exemplify the requirement to train a model using sufficient data by showing that different granularities of cross-validation can yield very different results.

Uwe Aickelin, Jenna Marie Reps, Peer-Olaf Siebers et al.

In this paper, we present a case study demonstrating how dynamic and uncertain criteria can be incorporated into a multicriteria analysis with the help of discrete event simulation. The simulation guided multicriteria analysis can include both monetary and non-monetary criteria that are static or dynamic, whereas standard multi criteria analysis only deals with static criteria and cost benefit analysis only deals with static monetary criteria. The dynamic and uncertain criteria are incorporated by using simulation to explore how the decision options perform. The results of the simulation are then fed into the multicriteria analysis. By enabling the incorporation of dynamic and uncertain criteria, the dynamic multiple criteria analysis was able to take a unique perspective of the problem. The highest ranked option returned by the dynamic multicriteria analysis differed from the other decision aid techniques.

Xiaoping Jiang, Ruibin Bai, Dario Landa-Silva et al.

Stochastic service network designs with uncertain demand represented by a set of scenarios can be modelled as a large-scale two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program (SMIP). The progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is a decomposition method for solving the resulting SMIP. The computational performance of the PHA can be greatly enhanced by decomposing according to scenario bundles instead of individual scenarios. At the heart of bundle-based decomposition is the method for grouping the scenarios into bundles. In this paper, we present a fuzzy c-means-based scenario bundling method to address this problem. Rather than full membership of a bundle, which is typically the case in existing scenario bundling strategies such as k-means, a scenario has partial membership in each of the bundles and can be assigned to more than one bundle in our method.

J Navrro, C Wagner, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Quality of life assessment represents a key process of deciding treatment success and viability. As such, patients' perceptions of their functional status and well-being are important inputs for impairment assessment. Given that patient completed questionnaires are often used to assess patient status and determine future treatment options, it is important to know the level of agreement of the words used by patients and different groups of medical professionals. In this paper, we propose a measure called the Agreement Ratio which provides a ratio of overall agreement when modelling words through Fuzzy Sets (FSs). The measure has been specifically designed for assessing this agreement in fuzzy sets which are generated from data such as patient responses. The measure relies on using the Jaccard Similarity Measure for comparing the different levels of agreement in the FSs generated.

Hadi A. Khorshidi, Uwe Aickelin

Class imbalance is a substantial challenge in classifying many real-world cases. Synthetic over-sampling methods have been effective to improve the performance of classifiers for imbalance problems. However, most synthetic over-sampling methods generate non-diverse synthetic instances within the convex hull formed by the existing minority instances as they only concentrate on the minority class and ignore the vast information provided by the majority class. They also often do not perform well for extremely imbalanced data as the fewer the minority instances, the less information to generate synthetic instances. Moreover, existing methods that generate synthetic instances using the majority class distributional information cannot perform effectively when the majority class has a multi-modal distribution. We propose a new method to generate diverse and adaptable synthetic instances using Synthetic Over-sampling with Minority and Majority classes (SOMM). SOMM generates synthetic instances diversely within the minority data space. It updates the generated instances adaptively to the neighbourhood including both classes. Thus, SOMM performs well for both binary and multiclass imbalance problems. We examine the performance of SOMM for binary and multiclass problems using benchmark data sets for different imbalance levels. The empirical results show the superiority of SOMM compared to other existing methods.

Xuetong Wu, Jonathan H. Manton, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Transfer learning, or domain adaptation, is concerned with machine learning problems in which training and testing data come from possibly different distributions (denoted as $μ$ and $μ'$, respectively). In this work, we give an information-theoretic analysis on the generalization error and the excess risk of transfer learning algorithms, following a line of work initiated by Russo and Zhou. Our results suggest, perhaps as expected, that the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence $D(mu||mu')$ plays an important role in characterizing the generalization error in the settings of domain adaptation. Specifically, we provide generalization error upper bounds for general transfer learning algorithms and extend the results to a specific empirical risk minimization (ERM) algorithm where data from both distributions are available in the training phase. We further apply the method to iterative, noisy gradient descent algorithms, and obtain upper bounds which can be easily calculated, only using parameters from the learning algorithms. A few illustrative examples are provided to demonstrate the usefulness of the results. In particular, our bound is tighter in specific classification problems than the bound derived using Rademacher complexity.

Xinyu Fu, Eugene Ch'ng, Uwe Aickelin et al.

This paper proposes a novel framework for detecting redundancy in supervised sentence categorisation. Unlike traditional singleton neural network, our model incorporates character-aware convolutional neural network (Char-CNN) with character-aware recurrent neural network (Char-RNN) to form a convolutional recurrent neural network (CRNN). Our model benefits from Char-CNN in that only salient features are selected and fed into the integrated Char-RNN. Char-RNN effectively learns long sequence semantics via sophisticated update mechanism. We compare our framework against the state-of-the-art text classification algorithms on four popular benchmarking corpus. For instance, our model achieves competing precision rate, recall ratio, and F1 score on the Google-news data-set. For twenty-news-groups data stream, our algorithm obtains the optimum on precision rate, recall ratio, and F1 score. For Brown Corpus, our framework obtains the best F1 score and almost equivalent precision rate and recall ratio over the top competitor. For the question classification collection, CRNN produces the optimal recall rate and F1 score and comparable precision rate. We also analyse three different RNN hidden recurrent cells' impact on performance and their runtime efficiency. We observe that MGU achieves the optimal runtime and comparable performance against GRU and LSTM. For TFIDF based algorithms, we experiment with word2vec, GloVe, and sent2vec embeddings and report their performance differences.

Polla Fattah, Uwe Aickelin, Christian Wagner

An important issue in public goods game is whether player's behaviour changes over time, and if so, how significant it is. In this game players can be classified into different groups according to the level of their participation in the public good. This problem can be considered as a concept drift problem by asking the amount of change that happens to the clusters of players over a sequence of game rounds. In this study we present a method for measuring changes in clusters with the same items over discrete time points using external clustering validation indices and area under the curve. External clustering indices were originally used to measure the difference between suggested clusters in terms of clustering algorithms and ground truth labels for items provided by experts. Instead of different cluster label comparison, we use these indices to compare between clusters of any two consecutive time points or between the first time point and the remaining time points to measure the difference between clusters through time points. In theory, any external clustering indices can be used to measure changes for any traditional (non-temporal) clustering algorithm, due to the fact that any time point alone is not carrying any temporal information. For the public goods game, our results indicate that the players are changing over time but the change is smooth and relatively constant between any two time points.

Simon Miller, Christian Wagner, Uwe Aickelin et al.

An important role carried out by cyber-security experts is the assessment of proposed computer systems, during their design stage. This task is fraught with difficulties and uncertainty, making the knowledge provided by human experts essential for successful assessment. Today, the increasing number of progressively complex systems has led to an urgent need to produce tools that support the expert-led process of system-security assessment. In this research, we use weighted averages (WAs) and ordered weighted averages (OWAs) with evolutionary algorithms (EAs) to create aggregation operators that model parts of the assessment process. We show how individual overall ratings for security components can be produced from ratings of their characteristics, and how these individual overall ratings can be aggregated to produce overall rankings of potential attacks on a system. As well as the identification of salient attacks and weak points in a prospective system, the proposed method also highlights which factors and security components contribute most to a component's difficulty and attack ranking respectively. A real world scenario is used in which experts were asked to rank a set of technical attacks, and to answer a series of questions about the security components that are the subject of the attacks. The work shows how finding good aggregation operators, and identifying important components and factors of a cyber-security problem can be automated. The resulting operators have the potential for use as decision aids for systems designers and cyber-security experts, increasing the amount of assessment that can be achieved with the limited resources available.

Jan Feyereisl, Uwe Aickelin

Some argue that biologically inspired algorithms are the future of solving difficult problems in computer science. Others strongly believe that the future lies in the exploration of mathematical foundations of problems at hand. The field of computer security tends to accept the latter view as a more appropriate approach due to its more workable validation and verification possibilities. The lack of rigorous scientific practices prevalent in biologically inspired security research does not aid in presenting bio-inspired security approaches as a viable way of dealing with complex security problems. This chapter introduces a biologically inspired algorithm, called the Self Organising Map (SOM), that was developed by Teuvo Kohonen in 1981. Since the algorithm's inception it has been scrutinised by the scientific community and analysed in more than 4000 research papers, many of which dealt with various computer security issues, from anomaly detection, analysis of executables all the way to wireless network monitoring. In this chapter a review of security related SOM research undertaken in the past is presented and analysed. The algorithm's biological analogies are detailed and the author's view on the future possibilities of this successful bio-inspired approach are given. The SOM algorithm's close relation to a number of vital functions of the human brain and the emergence of multi-core computer architectures are the two main reasons behind our assumption that the future of the SOM algorithm and its variations is promising, notably in the field of computer security.

Jenna Marie Reps, Jonathan M. Garibaldi, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Big longitudinal observational medical data potentially hold a wealth of information and have been recognised as potential sources for gaining new drug safety knowledge. Unfortunately there are many complexities and underlying issues when analysing longitudinal observational data. Due to these complexities, existing methods for large-scale detection of negative side effects using observational data all tend to have issues distinguishing between association and causality. New methods that can better discriminate causal and non-causal relationships need to be developed to fully utilise the data. In this paper we propose using a set of causality considerations developed by the epidemiologist Bradford Hill as a basis for engineering features that enable the application of supervised learning for the problem of detecting negative side effects. The Bradford Hill considerations look at various perspectives of a drug and outcome relationship to determine whether it shows causal traits. We taught a classifier to find patterns within these perspectives and it learned to discriminate between association and causality. The novelty of this research is the combination of supervised learning and Bradford Hill's causality considerations to automate the Bradford Hill's causality assessment. We evaluated the framework on a drug safety gold standard know as the observational medical outcomes partnership's nonspecified association reference set. The methodology obtained excellent discriminate ability with area under the curves ranging between 0.792-0.940 (existing method optimal: 0.73) and a mean average precision of 0.640 (existing method optimal: 0.141). The proposed features can be calculated efficiently and be readily updated, making the framework suitable for big observational data.

Christopher Roadknight, Durga Suryanarayanan, Uwe Aickelin et al.

This paper primarily addresses a dataset relating to cellular, chemical and physical conditions of patients gathered at the time they are operated upon to remove colorectal tumours. This data provides a unique insight into the biochemical and immunological status of patients at the point of tumour removal along with information about tumour classification and post-operative survival. The relationship between severity of tumour, based on TNM staging, and survival is still unclear for patients with TNM stage 2 and 3 tumours. We ask whether it is possible to predict survival rate more accurately using a selection of machine learning techniques applied to subsets of data to gain a deeper understanding of the relationships between a patient's biochemical markers and survival. We use a range of feature selection and single classification techniques to predict the 5 year survival rate of TNM stage 2 and 3 patients which initially produces less than ideal results. The performance of each model individually is then compared with subsets of the data where agreement is reached for multiple models. This novel method of selective ensembling demonstrates that significant improvements in model accuracy on an unseen test set can be achieved for patients where agreement between models is achieved. Finally we point at a possible method to identify whether a patients prognosis can be accurately predicted or not.

Javier Navarro, Christian Wagner, Uwe Aickelin et al.

In the context of cancer treatment and surgery, quality of life assessment is a crucial part of determining treatment success and viability. In order to assess it, patients completed questionnaires which employ words to capture aspects of patients well-being are the norm. As the results of these questionnaires are often used to assess patient progress and to determine future treatment options, it is important to establish that the words used are interpreted in the same way by both patients and medical professionals. In this paper, we capture and model patients perceptions and associated uncertainty about the words used to describe the level of their physical function used in the highly common (in Sarcoma Services) Toronto Extremity Salvage Score (TESS) questionnaire. The paper provides detail about the interval-valued data capture as well as the subsequent modelling of the data using fuzzy sets. Based on an initial sample of participants, we use Jaccard similarity on the resulting words models to show that there may be considerable differences in the interpretation of commonly used questionnaire terms, thus presenting a very real risk of miscommunication between patients and medical professionals as well as within the group of medical professionals.

Javier Navarro, Christian Wagner, Uwe Aickelin

Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification Systems (FRBCSs) have the potential to provide so-called interpretable classifiers, i.e. classifiers which can be introspective, understood, validated and augmented by human experts by relying on fuzzy-set based rules. This paper builds on prior work for interval type-2 fuzzy set based FRBCs where the fuzzy sets and rules of the classifier are generated using an initial clustering stage. By introducing Subtractive Clustering in order to identify multiple cluster prototypes, the proposed approach has the potential to deliver improved classification performance while maintaining good interpretability, i.e. without resulting in an excessive number of rules. The paper provides a detailed overview of the proposed FRBC framework, followed by a series of exploratory experiments on both linearly and non-linearly separable datasets, comparing results to existing rule-based and SVM approaches. Overall, initial results indicate that the approach enables comparable classification performance to non rule-based classifiers such as SVM, while often achieving this with a very small number of rules.

Polla Fattah, Uwe Aickelin, Christian Wagner

This study optimises manually derived rule-based expert system classification of objects according to changes in their properties over time. One of the key challenges that this study tries to address is how to classify objects that exhibit changes in their behaviour over time, for example how to classify companies' share price stability over a period of time or how to classify students' preferences for subjects while they are progressing through school. A specific case the paper considers is the strategy of players in public goods games (as common in economics) across multiple consecutive games. Initial classification starts from expert definitions specifying class allocation for players based on aggregated attributes of the temporal data. Based on these initial classifications, the optimisation process tries to find an improved classifier which produces the best possible compact classes of objects (players) for every time point in the temporal data. The compactness of the classes is measured by a cost function based on internal cluster indices like the Dunn Index, distance measures like Euclidean distance or statistically derived measures like standard deviation. The paper discusses the approach in the context of incorporating changing player strategies in the aforementioned public good games, where common classification approaches so far do not consider such changes in behaviour resulting from learning or in-game experience. By using the proposed process for classifying temporal data and the actual players' contribution during the games, we aim to produce a more refined classification which in turn may inform the interpretation of public goods game data.

Tao Zhang, Peer-Olaf Siebers, Uwe Aickelin

How do technology users effectively transit from having zero knowledge about a technology to making the best use of it after an authoritative technology adoption? This post-adoption user learning has received little research attention in technology management literature. In this paper we investigate user learning in authoritative technology adoption by developing an agent-based model using the case of council-led smart meter deployment in the UK City of Leeds. Energy consumers gain experience of using smart meters based on the learning curve in behavioural learning. With the agent-based model we carry out experiments to validate the model and test different energy interventions that local authorities can use to facilitate energy consumers' learning and maintain their continuous use of the technology. Our results show that the easier energy consumers become experienced, the more energy-efficient they are and the more energy saving they can achieve; encouraging energy consumers' contacts via various informational means can facilitate their learning; and developing and maintaining their positive attitude toward smart metering can enable them to use the technology continuously. Contributions and energy policy/intervention implications are discussed in this paper.

Jiangang Ma, Le Sun, Hua Wang et al.

Uncertain data streams have been widely generated in many Web applications. The uncertainty in data streams makes anomaly detection from sensor data streams far more challenging. In this paper, we present a novel framework that supports anomaly detection in uncertain data streams. The proposed framework adopts an efficient uncertainty pre-processing procedure to identify and eliminate uncertainties in data streams. Based on the corrected data streams, we develop effective period pattern recognition and feature extraction techniques to improve the computational efficiency. We use classification methods for anomaly detection in the corrected data stream. We also empirically show that the proposed approach shows a high accuracy of anomaly detection on a number of real datasets.

Jenna M. Reps, Uwe Aickelin, Richard B. Hubbard

Purpose: To develop a framework for identifying and incorporating candidate confounding interaction terms into a regularised cox regression analysis to refine adverse drug reaction signals obtained via longitudinal observational data. Methods: We considered six drug families that are commonly associated with myocardial infarction in observational healthcare data, but where the causal relationship ground truth is known (adverse drug reaction or not). We applied emergent pattern mining to find itemsets of drugs and medical events that are associated with the development of myocardial infarction. These are the candidate confounding interaction terms. We then implemented a cohort study design using regularised cox regression that incorporated and accounted for the candidate confounding interaction terms. Results The methodology was able to account for signals generated due to confounding and a cox regression with elastic net regularisation correctly ranked the drug families known to be true adverse drug reactions above those.

Grazziela P. Figueredo, Christian Wagner, Jonathan M. Garibaldi et al.

In this position paper, we present ideas about creating a next generation framework towards an adaptive interface for data communication and visualisation systems. Our objective is to develop a system that accepts large data sets as inputs and provides user-centric, meaningful visual information to assist owners to make sense of their data collection. The proposed framework comprises four stages: (i) the knowledge base compilation, where we search and collect existing state-ofthe-art visualisation techniques per domain and user preferences; (ii) the development of the learning and inference system, where we apply artificial intelligence techniques to learn, predict and recommend new graphic interpretations (iii) results evaluation; and (iv) reinforcement and adaptation, where valid outputs are stored in our knowledge base and the system is iteratively tuned to address new demands. These stages, as well as our overall vision, limitations and possible challenges are introduced in this article. We also discuss further extensions of this framework for other knowledge discovery tasks.