Torben Bach Pedersen

Yan Zhao, Liwei Deng, Xuanhao Chen et al.

The continued digitization of societal processes translates into a proliferation of time series data that cover applications such as fraud detection, intrusion detection, and energy management, where anomaly detection is often essential to enable reliability and safety. Many recent studies target anomaly detection for time series data. Indeed, area of time series anomaly detection is characterized by diverse data, methods, and evaluation strategies, and comparisons in existing studies consider only part of this diversity, which makes it difficult to select the best method for a particular problem setting. To address this shortcoming, we introduce taxonomies for data, methods, and evaluation strategies, provide a comprehensive overview of unsupervised time series anomaly detection using the taxonomies, and systematically evaluate and compare state-of-the-art traditional as well as deep learning techniques. In the empirical study using nine publicly available datasets, we apply the most commonly-used performance evaluation metrics to typical methods under a fair implementation standard. Based on the structuring offered by the taxonomies, we report on empirical studies and provide guidelines, in the form of comparative tables, for choosing the methods most suitable for particular application settings. Finally, we propose research directions for this dynamic field.

Subina Khanal, Seshu Tirupathi, Giulio Zizzo et al.

The recent breakthrough of Transformers in deep learning has drawn significant attention of the time series community due to their ability to capture long-range dependencies. However, like other deep learning models, Transformers face limitations in time series prediction, including insufficient temporal understanding, generalization challenges, and data shift issues for the domains with limited data. Additionally, addressing the issue of catastrophic forgetting, where models forget previously learned information when exposed to new data, is another critical aspect that requires attention in enhancing the robustness of Transformers for time series tasks. To address these limitations, in this paper, we pre-train the time series Transformer model on a source domain with sufficient data and fine-tune it on the target domain with limited data. We introduce the \emph{One-step fine-tuning} approach, adding some percentage of source domain data to the target domains, providing the model with diverse time series instances. We then fine-tune the pre-trained model using a gradual unfreezing technique. This helps enhance the model's performance in time series prediction for domains with limited data. Extensive experimental results on two real-world datasets show that our approach improves over the state-of-the-art baselines by 4.35% and 11.54% for indoor temperature and wind power prediction, respectively.

Merim Dzaferagic, Marco Ruffini, Nina Slamnik-Krijestorac et al.

Multiple visions of 6G networks elicit Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a central, native element. When 6G systems are deployed at a large scale, end-to-end AI-based solutions will necessarily have to encompass both the radio and the fiber-optical domain. This paper introduces the Decentralized Multi-Party, Multi-Network AI (DMMAI) framework for integrating AI into 6G networks deployed at scale. DMMAI harmonizes AI-driven controls across diverse network platforms and thus facilitates networks that autonomously configure, monitor, and repair themselves. This is particularly crucial at the network edge, where advanced applications meet heightened functionality and security demands. The radio/optical integration is vital due to the current compartmentalization of AI research within these domains, which lacks a comprehensive understanding of their interaction. Our approach explores multi-network orchestration and AI control integration, filling a critical gap in standardized frameworks for AI-driven coordination in 6G networks. The DMMAI framework is a step towards a global standard for AI in 6G, aiming to establish reference use cases, data and model management methods, and benchmarking platforms for future AI/ML solutions.

Jiachen Xu, Yushuai Li, Torben Bach Pedersen et al.

Emerging digital twin technology has the potential to revolutionize voltage control in power systems. However, the state-of-the-art digital twin method suffers from low computational and sampling efficiency, which hinders its applications. To address this issue, we propose a Gumbel-Consistency Digital Twin (GC-DT) method that enhances voltage control with improved computational and sampling efficiency. First, the proposed method incorporates a Gumbel-based strategy improvement that leverages the Gumbel-top trick to enhance non-repetitive sampling actions and reduce the reliance on Monte Carlo Tree Search simulations, thereby improving computational efficiency. Second, a consistency loss function aligns predicted hidden states with actual hidden states in the latent space, which increases both prediction accuracy and sampling efficiency. Experiments on IEEE 123-bus, 34-bus, and 13-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed GC-DT outperforms the state-of-the-art DT method in both computational and sampling efficiency.

Hengyu Liu, Yushuai Li, Minghe Yu et al.

Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS), such as Massive Open Online Courses, offer new opportunities for human learning. At the core of such systems, knowledge tracing (KT) predicts students' future performance by analyzing their historical learning activities, enabling an accurate evaluation of students' knowledge states over time. We show that existing KT methods often encounter correlation conflicts when analyzing the relationships between historical learning sequences and future performance. To address such conflicts, we propose to extract so-called Follow-up Performance Trends (FPTs) from historical ITS data and to incorporate them into KT. We propose a method called Forward-Looking Knowledge Tracing (FINER) that combines historical learning sequences with FPTs to enhance student performance prediction accuracy. FINER constructs learning patterns that facilitate the retrieval of FPTs from historical ITS data in linear time; FINER includes a novel similarity-aware attention mechanism that aggregates FPTs based on both frequency and contextual similarity; and FINER offers means of combining FPTs and historical learning sequences to enable more accurate prediction of student future performance. Experiments on six real-world datasets show that FINER can outperform ten state-of-the-art KT methods, increasing accuracy by 8.74% to 84.85%.

Bijay Neupane, Torben Bach Pedersen, Bo Thiesson

The uncertainty in the power supply due to fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources (RES) has severe (financial and other) implications for energy market players. In this paper, we present a device-level Demand Response (DR) scheme that captures the atomic (all available) flexibilities in energy demand and provides the largest possible solution space to generate demand/supply schedules that minimize market imbalances. We evaluate the effectiveness and feasibility of widely used forecasting models for device-level flexibility analysis. In a typical device-level flexibility forecast, a market player is more concerned with the \textit{utility} that the demand flexibility brings to the market, rather than the intrinsic forecast accuracy. In this regard, we provide comprehensive predictive modeling and scheduling of demand flexibility from household appliances to demonstrate the (financial and otherwise) viability of introducing flexibility-based DR in the Danish/Nordic market. Further, we investigate the correlation between the potential utility and the accuracy of the demand forecast model. Furthermore, we perform a number of experiments to determine the data granularity that provides the best financial reward to market players for adopting the proposed DR scheme. A cost-benefit analysis of forecast results shows that even with somewhat low forecast accuracy, market players can achieve regulation cost savings of 54% of the theoretically optimal.