James Evans

Jamshid Sourati, James Evans

Artificial intelligence (AI) models trained on published scientific findings have been used to invent valuable materials and targeted therapies, but they typically ignore the human scientists who continually alter the landscape of discovery. Here we show that incorporating the distribution of human expertise by training unsupervised models on simulated inferences cognitively accessible to experts dramatically improves (up to 400%) AI prediction of future discoveries beyond those focused on research content alone, especially when relevant literature is sparse. These models succeed by predicting human predictions and the scientists who will make them. By tuning human-aware AI to avoid the crowd, we can generate scientifically promising "alien" hypotheses unlikely to be imagined or pursued without intervention until the distant future, which hold promise to punctuate scientific advance beyond questions currently pursued. Accelerating human discovery or probing its blind spots, human-aware AI enables us to move toward and beyond the contemporary scientific frontier.

Bofan Gong, Shiyang Lai, James Evans et al.

Polysemanticity is pervasive in language models and remains a major challenge for interpretation and model behavioral control. Leveraging sparse autoencoders (SAEs), we map the polysemantic topology of two small models (Pythia-70M and GPT-2-Small) to identify SAE feature pairs that are semantically unrelated yet exhibit interference within models. We intervene at four foci (prompt, token, feature, neuron) and measure induced shifts in the next-token prediction distribution, uncovering polysemantic structures that expose a systematic vulnerability in these models. Critically, interventions distilled from counterintuitive interference patterns shared by two small models transfer reliably to larger instruction-tuned models (Llama-3.1-8B/70B-Instruct and Gemma-2-9B-Instruct), yielding predictable behavioral shifts without access to model internals. These findings challenge the view that polysemanticity is purely stochastic, demonstrating instead that interference structures generalize across scale and family. Such generalization suggests a convergent, higher-order organization of internal representations, which is only weakly aligned with intuition and structured by latent regularities, offering new possibilities for both black-box control and theoretical insight into human and artificial cognition.

Jamshid Sourati, James Evans

Neither artificial intelligence designed to play Turing's imitation game, nor augmented intelligence built to maximize the human manipulation of information are tuned to accelerate innovation and improve humanity's collective advance against its greatest challenges. We reconceptualize and pilot beneficial AI to radically augment human understanding by complementing rather than competing with human cognitive capacity. Our approach to complementary intelligence builds on insights underlying the wisdom of crowds, which hinges on the independence and diversity of crowd members' information and approach. By programmatically incorporating information on the evolving distribution of scientific expertise from research papers, our approach follows the distribution of content in the literature while avoiding the scientific crowd and the hypotheses cognitively available to it. We use this approach to generate valuable predictions for what materials possess valuable energy-related properties (e.g., thermoelectricity), and what compounds possess valuable medical properties (e.g., asthma) that complement the human scientific crowd. We demonstrate that our complementary predictions, if identified by human scientists and inventors at all, are only discovered years further into the future. When we evaluate the promise of our predictions with first-principles equations, we demonstrate that increased complementarity of our predictions does not decrease and in some cases increases the probability that the predictions possess the targeted properties. In summary, by tuning AI to avoid the crowd, we can generate hypotheses unlikely to be imagined or pursued until the distant future and promise to punctuate scientific advance. By identifying and correcting for collective human bias, these models also suggest opportunities to improve human prediction by reformulating science education for discovery.

David H. Wolpert, Michael H. Price, Stefani A. Crabtree et al.

Historical processes manifest remarkable diversity. Nevertheless, scholars have long attempted to identify patterns and categorize historical actors and influences with some success. A stochastic process framework provides a structured approach for the analysis of large historical datasets that allows for detection of sometimes surprising patterns, identification of relevant causal actors both endogenous and exogenous to the process, and comparison between different historical cases. The combination of data, analytical tools and the organizing theoretical framework of stochastic processes complements traditional narrative approaches in history and archaeology.