The Past as a Stochastic Process
This provides a structured analytical approach for historians and archaeologists to complement traditional narrative methods, though it appears incremental as it applies an existing framework to a new domain.
The paper tackles the challenge of analyzing diverse historical processes by applying a stochastic process framework to large historical datasets, enabling the detection of patterns, identification of causal actors, and comparison across cases.
Historical processes manifest remarkable diversity. Nevertheless, scholars have long attempted to identify patterns and categorize historical actors and influences with some success. A stochastic process framework provides a structured approach for the analysis of large historical datasets that allows for detection of sometimes surprising patterns, identification of relevant causal actors both endogenous and exogenous to the process, and comparison between different historical cases. The combination of data, analytical tools and the organizing theoretical framework of stochastic processes complements traditional narrative approaches in history and archaeology.