Yunxuan Dong

Xuan Yang, Yunxuan Dong, Lina Yang et al.

Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energy resources. Forecasting photovoltaic power generation is an important way to increase photovoltaic penetration. However, the difficulty in qualifying the uncertainty of PV power generation, especially during hazy weather, makes forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel model to address the issue. We introduce a modified entropy to qualify uncertainty during hazy weather while clustering and attention mechanisms are employed to reduce computational costs and enhance forecasting accuracy, respectively. Hyperparameters were adjusted using an optimization algorithm. Experiments on two datasets related to hazy weather demonstrate that our model significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to existing models.

Tingting Diao, Xinzhang Wu, Lina Yang et al.

Accurate tourism demand forecasting is hindered by limited historical data and complex spatiotemporal dependencies among tourist origins. A novel forecasting framework integrating virtual sample generation and a novel Transformer predictor addresses constraints arising from restricted data availability. A spatiotemporal GAN produces realistic virtual samples by dynamically modeling spatial correlations through a graph convolutional network, and an enhanced Transformer captures local patterns with causal convolutions and long-term dependencies with self-attention,eliminating autoregressive decoding. A joint training strategy refines virtual sample generation based on predictor feedback to maintain robust performance under data-scarce conditions. Experimental evaluations on real-world daily and monthly tourism demand datasets indicate a reduction in average MASE by 18.37% compared to conventional Transformer-based models, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy. The integration of adaptive spatiotemporal sample augmentation with a specialized Transformer can effectively address limited-data forecasting scenarios in tourism management.

Tengfei Cheng, Yangdi Huang, Yunxuan Dong

Tidal energy is one of the key components in increasing the penetration rate of renewable energy. The penetration of tidal energy in the electrical grid depends on the accuracy of tidal current speed forecasting. Modeling inaccuracies hinder forecast accuracy. Previous research has primarily used physical models to forecast tidal current speed. However, tidal current variations influenced by the orbital periods of celestial bodies make accurate physical modeling challenging. Researching the multi-periodicity of tides is crucial for accurately forecasting tidal current speed. In this article, we propose the Wavelet-Enhanced Convolutional Network (WCN) to learn multi-periodicity. The framework embeds intra-period and inter-period variations of one-dimensional tidal current data into the rows and columns of a two-dimensional tensor. Then, the two-dimensional variations of the sequence can be processed by convolutional kernels. We integrate a time-frequency analysis method into the framework to further address local periodic features. Additionally, to enhance the framework's stability, we optimize the framework's hyperparameters with the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator algorithm. The proposed framework avoids the lack of learning multi-periodicity. Compared with benchmarks, the proposed framework reduces the mean absolute error and mean square error in 10-step forecasting by, at most, 90.36% and 97.56%, respectively.