CLOct 2, 2022
Cognitive modelling with multilayer networks: Insights, advancements and future challengesMassimo Stella, Salvatore Citraro, Giulio Rossetti et al.
The mental lexicon is a complex cognitive system representing information about the words/concepts that one knows. Decades of psychological experiments have shown that conceptual associations across multiple, interactive cognitive levels can greatly influence word acquisition, storage, and processing. How can semantic, phonological, syntactic, and other types of conceptual associations be mapped within a coherent mathematical framework to study how the mental lexicon works? We here review cognitive multilayer networks as a promising quantitative and interpretative framework for investigating the mental lexicon. Cognitive multilayer networks can map multiple types of information at once, thus capturing how different layers of associations might co-exist within the mental lexicon and influence cognitive processing. This review starts with a gentle introduction to the structure and formalism of multilayer networks. We then discuss quantitative mechanisms of psychological phenomena that could not be observed in single-layer networks and were only unveiled by combining multiple layers of the lexicon: (i) multiplex viability highlights language kernels and facilitative effects of knowledge processing in healthy and clinical populations; (ii) multilayer community detection enables contextual meaning reconstruction depending on psycholinguistic features; (iii) layer analysis can mediate latent interactions of mediation, suppression and facilitation for lexical access. By outlining novel quantitative perspectives where multilayer networks can shed light on cognitive knowledge representations, also in next-generation brain/mind models, we discuss key limitations and promising directions for cutting-edge future research.
AIAug 1, 2024
Y Social: an LLM-powered Social Media Digital TwinGiulio Rossetti, Massimo Stella, Rémy Cazabet et al.
In this paper we introduce Y, a new-generation digital twin designed to replicate an online social media platform. Digital twins are virtual replicas of physical systems that allow for advanced analyses and experimentation. In the case of social media, a digital twin such as Y provides a powerful tool for researchers to simulate and understand complex online interactions. {\tt Y} leverages state-of-the-art Large Language Models (LLMs) to replicate sophisticated agent behaviors, enabling accurate simulations of user interactions, content dissemination, and network dynamics. By integrating these aspects, Y offers valuable insights into user engagement, information spread, and the impact of platform policies. Moreover, the integration of LLMs allows Y to generate nuanced textual content and predict user responses, facilitating the study of emergent phenomena in online environments. To better characterize the proposed digital twin, in this paper we describe the rationale behind its implementation, provide examples of the analyses that can be performed on the data it enables to be generated, and discuss its relevance for multidisciplinary research.
CLApr 13, 2023
Towards hypergraph cognitive networks as feature-rich models of knowledgeSalvatore Citraro, Simon De Deyne, Massimo Stella et al.
Semantic networks provide a useful tool to understand how related concepts are retrieved from memory. However, most current network approaches use pairwise links to represent memory recall patterns. Pairwise connections neglect higher-order associations, i.e. relationships between more than two concepts at a time. These higher-order interactions might covariate with (and thus contain information about) how similar concepts are along psycholinguistic dimensions like arousal, valence, familiarity, gender and others. We overcome these limits by introducing feature-rich cognitive hypergraphs as quantitative models of human memory where: (i) concepts recalled together can all engage in hyperlinks involving also more than two concepts at once (cognitive hypergraph aspect), and (ii) each concept is endowed with a vector of psycholinguistic features (feature-rich aspect). We build hypergraphs from word association data and use evaluation methods from machine learning features to predict concept concreteness. Since concepts with similar concreteness tend to cluster together in human memory, we expect to be able to leverage this structure. Using word association data from the Small World of Words dataset, we compared a pairwise network and a hypergraph with N=3586 concepts/nodes. Interpretable artificial intelligence models trained on (1) psycholinguistic features only, (2) pairwise-based feature aggregations, and on (3) hypergraph-based aggregations show significant differences between pairwise and hypergraph links. Specifically, our results show that higher-order and feature-rich hypergraph models contain richer information than pairwise networks leading to improved prediction of word concreteness. The relation with previous studies about conceptual clustering and compartmentalisation in associative knowledge and human memory are discussed.
AIApr 18
LLMs can persuade only psychologically susceptible humans on societal issues, via trust in AI and emotional appeals, amid logical fallaciesAlexis Carrillo, Salvatore Citraro, Ali Aghazhadeh Ardebili et al.
Scarce longitudinal evidence examines LLMs' persuasiveness and humanness along time-evolving psychological frameworks. We introduce Talk2AI, a longitudinal framework quantifying psycho-social, reasoning and affective dimensions of LLMs' persuasiveness about polarizing societal topics. In a four-way longitudinal setup, Talk2AI's 770 participants engaged in structured conversations with one of four leading LLMs on topics like climate change, social media misinformation, and math anxiety. This produced 3,080 conversations over 60,000 turns. After each wave, participants reported conviction in their initial topic stance, perceived opinion change, LLM's perceived humanness, a self-donation to the topic and a textual explanation. Feedback time series showed longitudinal inertia in convictions, indicating some human anchoring to initial opinions even after repeated exposure to AI-generated arguments. Interestingly, NLP analyses revealed that both humans and LLMs relied on fallacious reasoning in 1 conversational quip every 6, countering the ``LLMs as superior systems" stereotype behind LLMs' cognitive surrender. LLMs' perceived humanness was most learnable from sociodemographic, psychological and engagement features ($R^2=0.44$), followed by opinion change ($R^2=0.34$), conviction ($R^2=0.26$) and personal endowment ($R^2=0.24$). Crucially, explainable AI (XAI) indicated: (i) the presence of individuals more susceptible to LLM-based opinion changes; (ii) psychological susceptibility to LLM-convincing consisted of having more trust in LLMs, being more agreeable and extraverted and with a higher need for cognition. A multiverse approach with mixed-effects models confirmed XAI results, alongside strong individual differences. Talk2AI provides a grounded framework and evidence for detecting how GenAI can influence human opinions via multiple psycho-social pathways in AI-human digital platforms.
SIJul 31, 2024
Characterizing User Archetypes and Discussions on Scored.coAndrea Failla, Salvatore Citraro, Giulio Rossetti et al.
In recent years, the proliferation of social platforms has drastically transformed the way individuals interact, organize, and share information. In this scenario, we experience an unprecedented increase in the scale and complexity of interactions and, at the same time, little to no research about some fringe social platforms. In this paper, we present a multi-dimensional framework for characterizing nodes and hyperedges in social hypernetworks, with a focus on the understudied alt-right platform Scored.co. Our approach integrates the possibility of studying higher-order interactions, thanks to the hypernetwork representation, and various node features such as user activity, sentiment, and toxicity, with the aim to define distinct user archetypes and understand their roles within the network. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from Scored.co, we analyze the dynamics of these archetypes over time and explore their interactions and influence within the community. The framework's versatility allows for detailed analysis of both individual user behaviors and broader social structures. Our findings highlight the importance of higher-order interactions in understanding social dynamics, offering new insights into the roles and behaviors that emerge in complex online environments.
SIApr 15
Network Effects and Agreement Drift in LLM DebatesErica Cau, Andrea Failla, Giulio Rossetti
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated an unprecedented ability to simulate human-like social behaviors, making them useful tools for simulating complex social systems. However, it remains unclear to what extent these simulations can be trusted to accurately capture key social mechanisms, particularly in highly unbalanced contexts involving minority groups. This paper uses a network generation model with controlled homophily and class sizes to examine how LLM agents behave collectively in multi-round debates. Moreover, our findings highlight a particular directional susceptibility that we term \textit{agreement drift}, in which agents are more likely to shift toward specific positions on the opinion scale. Overall, our findings highlight the need to disentangle structural effects from model biases before treating LLM populations as behavioral proxies for human groups.
CLApr 14
The role of System 1 and System 2 semantic memory structure in human and LLM biasesKatherine Abramski, Giulio Rossetti, Massimo Stella
Implicit biases in both humans and large language models (LLMs) pose significant societal risks. Dual process theories propose that biases arise primarily from associative System 1 thinking, while deliberative System 2 thinking mitigates bias, but the cognitive mechanisms that give rise to this phenomenon remain poorly understood. To better understand what underlies this duality in humans, and possibly in LLMs, we model System 1 and System 2 thinking as semantic memory networks with distinct structures, built from comparable datasets generated by both humans and LLMs. We then investigate how these distinct semantic memory structures relate to implicit gender bias using network-based evaluation metrics. We find that semantic memory structures are irreducible only in humans, suggesting that LLMs lack certain types of human-like conceptual knowledge. Moreover, semantic memory structure relates consistently to implicit bias only in humans, with lower levels of bias in System~2 structures. These findings suggest that certain types of conceptual knowledge contribute to bias regulation in humans, but not in LLMs, highlighting fundamental differences between human and machine cognition.
SIApr 25
Quantifying opinion homophily in online social networks: A bounded confidence perspectiveYangyang Luan, Camilla Ancona, Carmela Bernardo et al.
The concept of homophily is pervasive in online social media. While many empirical studies have relied on external sociodemographic traits to investigate it, significantly less is known about homophily at the cognitive level, that is, at the level of shared opinions or values. For such "value homophily", in this paper we study interval-based patterns of opinion homophily from a bounded confidence perspective. We consider three heterogeneous datasets from Reddit and Twitter covering polarizing issues, with user opinions quantified via sentiment analysis and fact-checking, and analyze the interaction networks formed by weaker (reply-based) and stronger (follow-based) social ties. Our findings show that users' interaction neighborhoods are significantly more concentrated in opinion space than expected by chance, with tie strength and issue polarization further amplifying this effect. Moreover, users often exhibit asymmetric tolerance ranges, with asymmetry typically directed toward locally mainstream positions rather than more radical or opposing ones. These findings support a bounded confidence interpretation of online value homophily.
CLDec 2, 2024
The "LLM World of Words" English free association norms generated by large language modelsKatherine Abramski, Riccardo Improta, Giulio Rossetti et al.
Free associations have been extensively used in cognitive psychology and linguistics for studying how conceptual knowledge is organized. Recently, the potential of applying a similar approach for investigating the knowledge encoded in LLMs has emerged, specifically as a method for investigating LLM biases. However, the absence of large-scale LLM-generated free association norms that are comparable with human-generated norms is an obstacle to this new research direction. To address this limitation, we create a new dataset of LLM-generated free association norms modeled after the "Small World of Words" (SWOW) human-generated norms consisting of approximately 12,000 cue words. We prompt three LLMs, namely Mistral, Llama3, and Haiku, with the same cues as those in the SWOW norms to generate three novel comparable datasets, the "LLM World of Words" (LWOW). Using both SWOW and LWOW norms, we construct cognitive network models of semantic memory that represent the conceptual knowledge possessed by humans and LLMs. We demonstrate how these datasets can be used for investigating implicit biases in humans and LLMs, such as the harmful gender stereotypes that are prevalent both in society and LLM outputs.
AINov 30, 2024
Forma mentis networks predict creativity ratings of short texts via interpretable artificial intelligence in human and GPT-simulated ratersEdith Haim, Natalie Fischer, Salvatore Citraro et al.
Creativity is a fundamental skill of human cognition. We use textual forma mentis networks (TFMN) to extract network (semantic/syntactic associations) and emotional features from approximately one thousand human- and GPT3.5-generated stories. Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), we test whether features relative to Mednick's associative theory of creativity can explain creativity ratings assigned by humans and GPT-3.5. Using XGBoost, we examine three scenarios: (i) human ratings of human stories, (ii) GPT-3.5 ratings of human stories, and (iii) GPT-3.5 ratings of GPT-generated stories. Our findings reveal that GPT-3.5 ratings differ significantly from human ratings not only in terms of correlations but also because of feature patterns identified with XAI methods. GPT-3.5 favours 'its own' stories and rates human stories differently from humans. Feature importance analysis with SHAP scores shows that: (i) network features are more predictive for human creativity ratings but also for GPT-3.5's ratings of human stories; (ii) emotional features played a greater role than semantic/syntactic network structure in GPT-3.5 rating its own stories. These quantitative results underscore key limitations in GPT-3.5's ability to align with human assessments of creativity. We emphasise the need for caution when using GPT-3.5 to assess and generate creative content, as it does not yet capture the nuanced complexity that characterises human creativity.
CLJul 13, 2025
SpreadPy: A Python tool for modelling spreading activation and superdiffusion in cognitive multiplex networksSalvatore Citraro, Edith Haim, Alessandra Carini et al.
We introduce SpreadPy as a Python library for simulating spreading activation in cognitive single-layer and multiplex networks. Our tool is designed to perform numerical simulations testing structure-function relationships in cognitive processes. By comparing simulation results with grounded theories in knowledge modelling, SpreadPy enables systematic investigations of how activation dynamics reflect cognitive, psychological and clinical phenomena. We demonstrate the library's utility through three case studies: (1) Spreading activation on associative knowledge networks distinguishes students with high versus low math anxiety, revealing anxiety-related structural differences in conceptual organization; (2) Simulations of a creativity task show that activation trajectories vary with task difficulty, exposing how cognitive load modulates lexical access; (3) In individuals with aphasia, simulated activation patterns on lexical networks correlate with empirical error types (semantic vs. phonological) during picture-naming tasks, linking network structure to clinical impairments. SpreadPy's flexible framework allows researchers to model these processes using empirically derived or theoretical networks, providing mechanistic insights into individual differences and cognitive impairments. The library is openly available, supporting reproducible research in psychology, neuroscience, and education research.
SIMar 21, 2024
From Perils to Possibilities: Understanding how Human (and AI) Biases affect Online ForaVirginia Morini, Valentina Pansanella, Katherine Abramski et al.
Social media platforms are online fora where users engage in discussions, share content, and build connections. This review explores the dynamics of social interactions, user-generated contents, and biases within the context of social media analysis (analyzing works that use the tools offered by complex network analysis and natural language processing) through the lens of three key points of view: online debates, online support, and human-AI interactions. On the one hand, we delineate the phenomenon of online debates, where polarization, misinformation, and echo chamber formation often proliferate, driven by algorithmic biases and extreme mechanisms of homophily. On the other hand, we explore the emergence of online support groups through users' self-disclosure and social support mechanisms. Online debates and support mechanisms present a duality of both perils and possibilities within social media; perils of segregated communities and polarized debates, and possibilities of empathy narratives and self-help groups. This dichotomy also extends to a third perspective: users' reliance on AI-generated content, such as the ones produced by Large Language Models, which can manifest both human biases hidden in training sets and non-human biases that emerge from their artificial neural architectures. Analyzing interdisciplinary approaches, we aim to deepen the understanding of the complex interplay between social interactions, user-generated content, and biases within the realm of social media ecosystems.
LGMar 11, 2024
Redefining Event Types and Group Evolution in Temporal DataAndrea Failla, Rémy Cazabet, Giulio Rossetti et al.
Groups -- such as clusters of points or communities of nodes -- are fundamental when addressing various data mining tasks. In temporal data, the predominant approach for characterizing group evolution has been through the identification of ``events". However, the events usually described in the literature, e.g., shrinks/growths, splits/merges, are often arbitrarily defined, creating a gap between such theoretical/predefined types and real-data group observations. Moving beyond existing taxonomies, we think of events as ``archetypes" characterized by a unique combination of quantitative dimensions that we call ``facets". Group dynamics are defined by their position within the facet space, where archetypal events occupy extremities. Thus, rather than enforcing strict event types, our approach can allow for hybrid descriptions of dynamics involving group proximity to multiple archetypes. We apply our framework to evolving groups from several face-to-face interaction datasets, showing it enables richer, more reliable characterization of group dynamics with respect to state-of-the-art methods, especially when the groups are subject to complex relationships. Our approach also offers intuitive solutions to common tasks related to dynamic group analysis, such as choosing an appropriate aggregation scale, quantifying partition stability, and evaluating event quality.
CLOct 28, 2025
A word association network methodology for evaluating implicit biases in LLMs compared to humansKatherine Abramski, Giulio Rossetti, Massimo Stella
As Large language models (LLMs) become increasingly integrated into our lives, their inherent social biases remain a pressing concern. Detecting and evaluating these biases can be challenging because they are often implicit rather than explicit in nature, so developing evaluation methods that assess the implicit knowledge representations of LLMs is essential. We present a novel word association network methodology for evaluating implicit biases in LLMs based on simulating semantic priming within LLM-generated word association networks. Our prompt-based approach taps into the implicit relational structures encoded in LLMs, providing both quantitative and qualitative assessments of bias. Unlike most prompt-based evaluation methods, our method enables direct comparisons between various LLMs and humans, providing a valuable point of reference and offering new insights into the alignment of LLMs with human cognition. To demonstrate the utility of our methodology, we apply it to both humans and several widely used LLMs to investigate social biases related to gender, religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation, and political party. Our results reveal both convergences and divergences between LLM and human biases, providing new perspectives on the potential risks of using LLMs. Our methodology contributes to a systematic, scalable, and generalizable framework for evaluating and comparing biases across multiple LLMs and humans, advancing the goal of transparent and socially responsible language technologies.
IRJun 29, 2024
A survey on the impacts of recommender systems on users, items, and human-AI ecosystemsLuca Pappalardo, Salvatore Citraro, Giuliano Cornacchia et al.
Recommendation systems and assistants (in short, recommenders) influence through online platforms most actions of our daily lives, suggesting items or providing solutions based on users' preferences or requests. This survey systematically reviews, categories, and discusses the impact of recommenders in four human-AI ecosystems -- social media, online retail, urban mapping and generative AI ecosystems. Its scope is to systematise a fast-growing field in which terminologies employed to classify methodologies and outcomes are fragmented and unsystematic. This is a crucial contribution to the literature because terminologies vary substantially across disciplines and ecosystems, hindering comparison and accumulation of knowledge in the field. We follow the customary steps of qualitative systematic review, gathering 154 articles from different disciplines to develop a parsimonious taxonomy of methodologies employed (empirical, simulation, observational, controlled), outcomes observed (concentration, content degradation, discrimination, diversity, echo chamber, filter bubble, homogenisation, polarisation, radicalisation, volume), and their level of analysis (individual, item, and ecosystem). We systematically discuss substantive and methodological commonalities across ecosystems, and highlight potential avenues for future research. The survey is addressed to scholars and practitioners interested in different human-AI ecosystems, policymakers and institutional stakeholders who want to understand better the measurable outcomes of recommenders, and tech companies who wish to obtain a systematic view of the impact of their recommenders.
CYMay 22, 2023
Cognitive network science reveals bias in GPT-3, ChatGPT, and GPT-4 mirroring math anxiety in high-school studentsKatherine Abramski, Salvatore Citraro, Luigi Lombardi et al.
Large language models are becoming increasingly integrated into our lives. Hence, it is important to understand the biases present in their outputs in order to avoid perpetuating harmful stereotypes, which originate in our own flawed ways of thinking. This challenge requires developing new benchmarks and methods for quantifying affective and semantic bias, keeping in mind that LLMs act as psycho-social mirrors that reflect the views and tendencies that are prevalent in society. One such tendency that has harmful negative effects is the global phenomenon of anxiety toward math and STEM subjects. Here, we investigate perceptions of math and STEM fields provided by cutting-edge language models, namely GPT-3, Chat-GPT, and GPT-4, by applying an approach from network science and cognitive psychology. Specifically, we use behavioral forma mentis networks (BFMNs) to understand how these LLMs frame math and STEM disciplines in relation to other concepts. We use data obtained by probing the three LLMs in a language generation task that has previously been applied to humans. Our findings indicate that LLMs have an overall negative perception of math and STEM fields, with math being perceived most negatively. We observe significant differences across the three LLMs. We observe that newer versions (i.e. GPT-4) produce richer, more complex perceptions as well as less negative perceptions compared to older versions and N=159 high-school students. These findings suggest that advances in the architecture of LLMs may lead to increasingly less biased models that could even perhaps someday aid in reducing harmful stereotypes in society rather than perpetuating them.
CLJan 13, 2022
Feature-rich multiplex lexical networks reveal mental strategies of early language learningSalvatore Citraro, Michael S. Vitevitch, Massimo Stella et al.
Knowledge in the human mind exhibits a dualistic vector/network nature. Modelling words as vectors is key to natural language processing, whereas networks of word associations can map the nature of semantic memory. We reconcile these paradigms - fragmented across linguistics, psychology and computer science - by introducing FEature-Rich MUltiplex LEXical (FERMULEX) networks. This novel framework merges structural similarities in networks and vector features of words, which can be combined or explored independently. Similarities model heterogenous word associations across semantic/syntactic/phonological aspects of knowledge. Words are enriched with multi-dimensional feature embeddings including frequency, age of acquisition, length and polysemy. These aspects enable unprecedented explorations of cognitive knowledge. Through CHILDES data, we use FERMULEX networks to model normative language acquisition by 1000 toddlers between 18 and 30 months. Similarities and embeddings capture word homophily via conformity, which measures assortative mixing via distance and features. Conformity unearths a language kernel of frequent/polysemous/short nouns and verbs key for basic sentence production, supporting recent evidence of children's syntactic constructs emerging at 30 months. This kernel is invisible to network core-detection and feature-only clustering: It emerges from the dual vector/network nature of words. Our quantitative analysis reveals two key strategies in early word learning. Modelling word acquisition as random walks on FERMULEX topology, we highlight non-uniform filling of communicative developmental inventories (CDIs). Conformity-based walkers lead to accurate (75%), precise (55%) and partially well-recalled (34%) predictions of early word learning in CDIs, providing quantitative support to previous empirical findings and developmental theories.
CLOct 28, 2021
Cognitive network science quantifies feelings expressed in suicide letters and Reddit mental health communitiesSimmi Marina Joseph, Salvatore Citraro, Virginia Morini et al.
Writing messages is key to expressing feelings. This study adopts cognitive network science to reconstruct how individuals report their feelings in clinical narratives like suicide notes or mental health posts. We achieve this by reconstructing syntactic/semantic associations between conceptsin texts as co-occurrences enriched with affective data. We transform 142 suicide notes and 77,000 Reddit posts from the r/anxiety, r/depression, r/schizophrenia, and r/do-it-your-own (r/DIY) forums into 5 cognitive networks, each one expressing meanings and emotions as reported by authors. These networks reconstruct the semantic frames surrounding 'feel', enabling a quantification of prominent associations and emotions focused around feelings. We find strong feelings of sadness across all clinical Reddit boards, added to fear r/depression, and replaced by joy/anticipation in r/DIY. Semantic communities and topic modelling both highlight key narrative topics of 'regret', 'unhealthy lifestyle' and 'low mental well-being'. Importantly, negative associations and emotions co-existed with trustful/positive language, focused on 'getting better'. This emotional polarisation provides quantitative evidence that online clinical boards possess a complex structure, where users mix both positive and negative outlooks. This dichotomy is absent in the r/DIY reference board and in suicide notes, where negative emotional associations about regret and pain persist but are overwhelmed by positive jargon addressing loved ones. Our quantitative comparisons provide strong evidence that suicide notes encapsulate different ways of expressing feelings compared to online Reddit boards, the latter acting more like personal diaries and relief valve. Our findings provide an interpretable, quantitative aid for supporting psychological inquiries of human feelings in digital and clinical settings.
SIMay 22, 2021
Sockpuppet Detection: a Telegram case studyGabriele Pisciotta, Miriana Somenzi, Elisa Barisani et al.
In Online Social Networks (OSN) numerous are the cases in which users create multiple accounts that publicly seem to belong to different people but are actually fake identities of the same person. These fictitious characters can be exploited to carry out abusive behaviors such as manipulating opinions, spreading fake news and disturbing other users. In literature this problem is known as the Sockpuppet problem. In our work we focus on Telegram, a wide-spread instant messaging application, often known for its exploitation by members of organized crime and terrorism, and more in general for its high presence of people who have offensive behaviors.
LGFeb 22, 2021
Home and destination attachment: study of cultural integration on TwitterJisu Kim, Alina Sîrbu, Giulio Rossetti et al.
The cultural integration of immigrants conditions their overall socio-economic integration as well as natives' attitudes towards globalisation in general and immigration in particular. At the same time, excessive integration -- or acculturation -- can be detrimental in that it implies forfeiting one's ties to the home country and eventually translates into a loss of diversity (from the viewpoint of host countries) and of global connections (from the viewpoint of both host and home countries). Cultural integration can be described using two dimensions: the preservation of links to the home country and culture, which we call home attachment, and the creation of new links together with the adoption of cultural traits from the new residence country, which we call destination attachment. In this paper we introduce a means to quantify these two aspects based on Twitter data. We build home and destination attachment indexes and analyse their possible determinants (e.g., language proximity, distance between countries), also in relation to Hofstede's cultural dimension scores. The results stress the importance of host language proficiency to explain destination attachment, but also the link between language and home attachment. In particular, the common language between home and destination countries corresponds to increased home attachment, as does low proficiency in the host language. Common geographical borders also seem to increase both home and destination attachment. Regarding cultural dimensions, larger differences among home and destination country in terms of Individualism, Masculinity and Uncertainty appear to correspond to larger destination attachment and lower home attachment.
SIDec 8, 2020
Predicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail recordsIoanna Miliou, Xinyue Xiong, Salvatore Rinzivillo et al.
Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.
SIJul 16, 2020
Evaluating Community Detection Algorithms for Progressively Evolving GraphsRemy Cazabet, Souaad Boudebza, Giulio Rossetti
Many algorithms have been proposed in the last ten years for the discovery of dynamic communities. However, these methods are seldom compared between themselves. In this article, we propose a generator of dynamic graphs with planted evolving community structure, as a benchmark to compare and evaluate such algorithms. Unlike previously proposed benchmarks, it is able to specify any desired evolving community structure through a descriptive language, and then to generate the corresponding progressively evolving network. We empirically evaluate six existing algorithms for dynamic community detection in terms of instantaneous and longitudinal similarity with the planted ground truth, smoothness of dynamic partitions, and scalability. We notably observe different types of weaknesses depending on their approach to ensure smoothness, namely Glitches, Oversimplification and Identity loss. Although no method arises as a clear winner, we observe clear differences between methods, and we identified the fastest, those yielding the most smoothed or the most accurate solutions at each step.