Vinayak Kaushal

Atena Khoshkonesh, Mohsen Mohammadagha, Vinayak Kaushal et al.

Construction projects frequently experience schedule delays and forecasting uncertainty due to variability in labor productivity, material availability, weather conditions, and project coordination. Conventional deterministic scheduling methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) assume fixed activity durations and therefore cannot adequately represent dynamic project uncertainty. This study presents a Bayesian-Monte Carlo probabilistic schedule updating framework for construction digital twin environments. The proposed methodology integrates stochastic activity-duration modeling, Bayesian recursive updating, Monte Carlo simulation, and uncertainty propagation within a unified computational framework for adaptive schedule forecasting. Activity durations are modeled using lognormal probability distributions and continuously updated through Bayesian inference as new project observations become available. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to propagate updated uncertainty throughout project networks and generate probabilistic completion-time forecasts, delay-risk estimates, and activity criticality measures. Simulation experiments using PSPLIB benchmark project networks demonstrate that the proposed framework improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty representation compared with deterministic CPM and static probabilistic scheduling approaches. The framework further supports adaptive project forecasting through integration of BIM reports, drone observations, IoT telemetry, productivity logs, and site monitoring data.

Mohsen Mohammadagha, Mohammad Najafi, Vinayak Kaushal et al.

The aging sewer infrastructure in the U.S., covering 2.1 million kilometers, encounters increasing structural issues, resulting in around 75,000 yearly sanitary sewer overflows that present serious economic, environmental, and public health hazards. Conventional inspection techniques and deterministic models do not account for the unpredictable nature of sewer decline, whereas probabilistic methods depend on extensive historical data, which is frequently lacking or incomplete. This research intends to enhance predictive accuracy for the condition of sewer pipelines through machine learning models artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR) by integrating factors such as pipe age, material, diameter, environmental influences, and PACP ratings. ANNs utilized ReLU activation functions and Adam optimization, whereas MLR applied regularization to address multicollinearity, with both models assessed through metrics like RMSE, MAE, and R2. The findings indicated that ANNs surpassed MLR, attaining an R2 of 0.9066 compared to MLRs 0.8474, successfully modeling nonlinear relationships while preserving generalization. MLR, on the other hand, offered enhanced interpretability by pinpointing significant predictors such as residual buildup. As a result, pipeline degradation is driven by pipe length, age, and pipe diameter as key predictors, while depth, soil type, and segment show minimal influence in this analysis. Future studies ought to prioritize hybrid models that merge the accuracy of ANNs with the interpretability of MLR, incorporating advanced methods such as SHAP analysis and transfer learning to improve scalability in managing infrastructure and promoting environmental sustainability.