Hongming Li

Hongming Li, Shujian Yu, Jose Principe

We propose causal recurrent variational autoencoder (CR-VAE), a novel generative model that is able to learn a Granger causal graph from a multivariate time series x and incorporates the underlying causal mechanism into its data generation process. Distinct to the classical recurrent VAEs, our CR-VAE uses a multi-head decoder, in which the $p$-th head is responsible for generating the $p$-th dimension of $\mathbf{x}$ (i.e., $\mathbf{x}^p$). By imposing a sparsity-inducing penalty on the weights (of the decoder) and encouraging specific sets of weights to be zero, our CR-VAE learns a sparse adjacency matrix that encodes causal relations between all pairs of variables. Thanks to this causal matrix, our decoder strictly obeys the underlying principles of Granger causality, thereby making the data generating process transparent. We develop a two-stage approach to train the overall objective. Empirically, we evaluate the behavior of our model in synthetic data and two real-world human brain datasets involving, respectively, the electroencephalography (EEG) signals and the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art time series generative models both qualitatively and quantitatively. Moreover, it also discovers a faithful causal graph with similar or improved accuracy over existing Granger causality-based causal inference methods. Code of CR-VAE is publicly available at https://github.com/hongmingli1995/CR-VAE.

Shujian Yu, Hongming Li, Sigurd Løkse et al.

The Cauchy-Schwarz (CS) divergence was developed by Príncipe et al. in 2000. In this paper, we extend the classic CS divergence to quantify the closeness between two conditional distributions and show that the developed conditional CS divergence can be simply estimated by a kernel density estimator from given samples. We illustrate the advantages (e.g., rigorous faithfulness guarantee, lower computational complexity, higher statistical power, and much more flexibility in a wide range of applications) of our conditional CS divergence over previous proposals, such as the conditional KL divergence and the conditional maximum mean discrepancy. We also demonstrate the compelling performance of conditional CS divergence in two machine learning tasks related to time series data and sequential inference, namely time series clustering and uncertainty-guided exploration for sequential decision making. The code of conditional CS divergence is available at https://github.com/SJYuCNEL/conditional_CS_divergence.

Hongming Li, Shujian Yu, Bin Liu et al.

This paper proposes \emph{Episodic and Lifelong Exploration via Maximum ENTropy} (ELEMENT), a novel, multiscale, intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning (RL) framework that is able to explore environments without using any extrinsic reward and transfer effectively the learned skills to downstream tasks. We advance the state of the art in three ways. First, we propose a multiscale entropy optimization to take care of the fact that previous maximum state entropy, for lifelong exploration with millions of state observations, suffers from vanishing rewards and becomes very expensive computationally across iterations. Therefore, we add an episodic maximum entropy over each episode to speedup the search further. Second, we propose a novel intrinsic reward for episodic entropy maximization named \emph{average episodic state entropy} which provides the optimal solution for a theoretical upper bound of the episodic state entropy objective. Third, to speed the lifelong entropy maximization, we propose a $k$ nearest neighbors ($k$NN) graph to organize the estimation of the entropy and updating processes that reduces the computation substantially. Our ELEMENT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art intrinsic rewards in both episodic and lifelong setups. Moreover, it can be exploited in task-agnostic pre-training, collecting data for offline reinforcement learning, etc.