Liwei Wang

Xiaoyang Ruan, Liwei Wang, Charat Thongprayoon et al.

Accurate prediction models for individual-level endpoints and time-to-endpoints are crucial in clinical practice. In this study, we propose a novel approach, GRU-D-Weibull, which combines gated recurrent units with decay (GRU-D) to model the Weibull distribution. Our method enables real-time individualized endpoint prediction and population-level risk management. Using a cohort of 6,879 patients with stage 4 chronic kidney disease (CKD4), we evaluated the performance of GRU-D-Weibull in endpoint prediction. The C-index of GRU-D-Weibull was ~0.7 at the index date and increased to ~0.77 after 4.3 years of follow-up, similar to random survival forest. Our approach achieved an absolute L1-loss of ~1.1 years (SD 0.95) at the CKD4 index date and a minimum of ~0.45 years (SD0.3) at 4 years of follow-up, outperforming competing methods significantly. GRU-D-Weibull consistently constrained the predicted survival probability at the time of an event within a smaller and more fixed range compared to other models throughout the follow-up period. We observed significant correlations between the error in point estimates and missing proportions of input features at the index date (correlations from ~0.1 to ~0.3), which diminished within 1 year as more data became available. By post-training recalibration, we successfully aligned the predicted and observed survival probabilities across multiple prediction horizons at different time points during follow-up. Our findings demonstrate the considerable potential of GRU-D-Weibull as the next-generation architecture for endpoint risk management, capable of generating various endpoint estimates for real-time monitoring using clinical data.

Kai Zheng, Tianle Cai, Weiran Huang et al.

We study locally differentially private (LDP) bandits learning in this paper. First, we propose simple black-box reduction frameworks that can solve a large family of context-free bandits learning problems with LDP guarantee. Based on our frameworks, we can improve previous best results for private bandits learning with one-point feedback, such as private Bandits Convex Optimization, and obtain the first result for Bandits Convex Optimization (BCO) with multi-point feedback under LDP. LDP guarantee and black-box nature make our frameworks more attractive in real applications compared with previous specifically designed and relatively weaker differentially private (DP) context-free bandits algorithms. Further, we extend our $(\varepsilon, δ)$-LDP algorithm to Generalized Linear Bandits, which enjoys a sub-linear regret $\tilde{O}(T^{3/4}/\varepsilon)$ and is conjectured to be nearly optimal. Note that given the existing $Ω(T)$ lower bound for DP contextual linear bandits (Shariff & Sheffe, 2018), our result shows a fundamental difference between LDP and DP contextual bandits learning.

Lunjia Hu, Ruihan Wu, Tianhong Li et al.

In this work we study the quantitative relation between the recursive teaching dimension (RTD) and the VC dimension (VCD) of concept classes of finite sizes. The RTD of a concept class $\mathcal C \subseteq \{0, 1\}^n$, introduced by Zilles et al. (2011), is a combinatorial complexity measure characterized by the worst-case number of examples necessary to identify a concept in $\mathcal C$ according to the recursive teaching model. For any finite concept class $\mathcal C \subseteq \{0,1\}^n$ with $\mathrm{VCD}(\mathcal C)=d$, Simon & Zilles (2015) posed an open problem $\mathrm{RTD}(\mathcal C) = O(d)$, i.e., is RTD linearly upper bounded by VCD? Previously, the best known result is an exponential upper bound $\mathrm{RTD}(\mathcal C) = O(d \cdot 2^d)$, due to Chen et al. (2016). In this paper, we show a quadratic upper bound: $\mathrm{RTD}(\mathcal C) = O(d^2)$, much closer to an answer to the open problem. We also discuss the challenges in fully solving the problem.