Yuyang Wang

Zhihan Gao, Xingjian Shi, Hao Wang et al.

Conventionally, Earth system (e.g., weather and climate) forecasting relies on numerical simulation with complex physical models and are hence both expensive in computation and demanding on domain expertise. With the explosive growth of the spatiotemporal Earth observation data in the past decade, data-driven models that apply Deep Learning (DL) are demonstrating impressive potential for various Earth system forecasting tasks. The Transformer as an emerging DL architecture, despite its broad success in other domains, has limited adoption in this area. In this paper, we propose Earthformer, a space-time Transformer for Earth system forecasting. Earthformer is based on a generic, flexible and efficient space-time attention block, named Cuboid Attention. The idea is to decompose the data into cuboids and apply cuboid-level self-attention in parallel. These cuboids are further connected with a collection of global vectors. We conduct experiments on the MovingMNIST dataset and a newly proposed chaotic N-body MNIST dataset to verify the effectiveness of cuboid attention and figure out the best design of Earthformer. Experiments on two real-world benchmarks about precipitation nowcasting and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting show Earthformer achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available: https://github.com/amazon-science/earth-forecasting-transformer .

Zhihan Gao, Xingjian Shi, Boran Han et al. · amazon-science

Earth system forecasting has traditionally relied on complex physical models that are computationally expensive and require significant domain expertise. In the past decade, the unprecedented increase in spatiotemporal Earth observation data has enabled data-driven forecasting models using deep learning techniques. These models have shown promise for diverse Earth system forecasting tasks but either struggle with handling uncertainty or neglect domain-specific prior knowledge, resulting in averaging possible futures to blurred forecasts or generating physically implausible predictions. To address these limitations, we propose a two-stage pipeline for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting: 1) We develop PreDiff, a conditional latent diffusion model capable of probabilistic forecasts. 2) We incorporate an explicit knowledge alignment mechanism to align forecasts with domain-specific physical constraints. This is achieved by estimating the deviation from imposed constraints at each denoising step and adjusting the transition distribution accordingly. We conduct empirical studies on two datasets: N-body MNIST, a synthetic dataset with chaotic behavior, and SEVIR, a real-world precipitation nowcasting dataset. Specifically, we impose the law of conservation of energy in N-body MNIST and anticipated precipitation intensity in SEVIR. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of PreDiff in handling uncertainty, incorporating domain-specific prior knowledge, and generating forecasts that exhibit high operational utility.

Tim Januschowski, Jan Gasthaus, Yuyang Wang et al. · amazon-science

Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a "machine learning" or "statistical" nature has become commonplace in parts of the forecasting literature and community, as exemplified by the M4 competition and the conclusion drawn by the organizers. We argue that this distinction does not stem from fundamental differences in the methods assigned to either class. Instead, this distinction is probably of a tribal nature, which limits the insights into the appropriateness and effectiveness of different forecasting methods. We provide alternative characteristics of forecasting methods which, in our view, allow to draw meaningful conclusions. Further, we discuss areas of forecasting which could benefit most from cross-pollination between the ML and the statistics communities.

Alan Edelman, Ekin Akyurek, Yuyang Wang · amazon-science, mit

We present a linear algebra formulation of backpropagation which allows the calculation of gradients by using a generically written ``backslash'' or Gaussian elimination on triangular systems of equations. Generally, the matrix elements are operators. This paper has three contributions: (i) it is of intellectual value to replace traditional treatments of automatic differentiation with a (left acting) operator theoretic, graph-based approach; (ii) operators can be readily placed in matrices in software in programming languages such as Julia as an implementation option; (iii) we introduce a novel notation, ``transpose dot'' operator ``$\{\}^{T_\bullet}$'' that allows for the reversal of operators. We further demonstrate the elegance of the operators approach in a suitable programming language consisting of generic linear algebra operators such as Julia \cite{bezanson2017julia}, and that it is possible to realize this abstraction in code. Our implementation shows how generic linear algebra can allow operators as elements of matrices. In contrast to ``operator overloading,'' where backslash would normally have to be rewritten to take advantage of operators, with ``generic programming'' there is no such need.

Xiyuan Zhang, Xiaoyong Jin, Karthick Gopalswamy et al.

Transformer-based models have gained large popularity and demonstrated promising results in long-term time-series forecasting in recent years. In addition to learning attention in time domain, recent works also explore learning attention in frequency domains (e.g., Fourier domain, wavelet domain), given that seasonal patterns can be better captured in these domains. In this work, we seek to understand the relationships between attention models in different time and frequency domains. Theoretically, we show that attention models in different domains are equivalent under linear conditions (i.e., linear kernel to attention scores). Empirically, we analyze how attention models of different domains show different behaviors through various synthetic experiments with seasonality, trend and noise, with emphasis on the role of softmax operation therein. Both these theoretical and empirical analyses motivate us to propose a new method: TDformer (Trend Decomposition Transformer), that first applies seasonal-trend decomposition, and then additively combines an MLP which predicts the trend component with Fourier attention which predicts the seasonal component to obtain the final prediction. Extensive experiments on benchmark time-series forecasting datasets demonstrate that TDformer achieves state-of-the-art performance against existing attention-based models.

Marcel Kollovieh, Abdul Fatir Ansari, Michael Bohlke-Schneider et al.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally-trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

Yuyang Wang, Ruichen Li, Jean-Rémy Chardonnet et al.

This work presents a dataset collected to predict cybersickness in virtual reality environments. The data was collected from navigation tasks in a virtual environment designed to induce cybersickness. The dataset consists of many data points collected from diverse participants, including physiological responses (EDA and Heart Rate) and self-reported cybersickness symptoms. The paper will provide a detailed description of the dataset, including the arranged navigation task, the data collection procedures, and the data format. The dataset will serve as a valuable resource for researchers to develop and evaluate predictive models for cybersickness and will facilitate more research in cybersickness mitigation.

Abdul Fatir Ansari, Lorenzo Stella, Caner Turkmen et al.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

Zihao Xu, Hao He, Guang-He Lee et al.

Existing domain adaptation methods tend to treat every domain equally and align them all perfectly. Such uniform alignment ignores topological structures among different domains; therefore it may be beneficial for nearby domains, but not necessarily for distant domains. In this work, we relax such uniform alignment by using a domain graph to encode domain adjacency, e.g., a graph of states in the US with each state as a domain and each edge indicating adjacency, thereby allowing domains to align flexibly based on the graph structure. We generalize the existing adversarial learning framework with a novel graph discriminator using encoding-conditioned graph embeddings. Theoretical analysis shows that at equilibrium, our method recovers classic domain adaptation when the graph is a clique, and achieves non-trivial alignment for other types of graphs. Empirical results show that our approach successfully generalizes uniform alignment, naturally incorporates domain information represented by graphs, and improves upon existing domain adaptation methods on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Code will soon be available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/GRDA.

Shantanu Gupta, Hao Wang, Zachary C. Lipton et al.

Link prediction methods are frequently applied in recommender systems, e.g., to suggest citations for academic papers or friends in social networks. However, exposure bias can arise when users are systematically underexposed to certain relevant items. For example, in citation networks, authors might be more likely to encounter papers from their own field and thus cite them preferentially. This bias can propagate through naively trained link predictors, leading to both biased evaluation and high generalization error (as assessed by true relevance). Moreover, this bias can be exacerbated by feedback loops. We propose estimators that leverage known exposure probabilities to mitigate this bias and consequent feedback loops. Next, we provide a loss function for learning the exposure probabilities from data. Finally, experiments on semi-synthetic data based on real-world citation networks, show that our methods reliably identify (truly) relevant citations. Additionally, our methods lead to greater diversity in the recommended papers' fields of study. The code is available at https://github.com/shantanu95/exposure-bias-link-rec.

Chaoran Cheng, Boran Han, Danielle C. Maddix et al.

Generative models that satisfy hard constraints are critical in many scientific and engineering applications, where physical laws or system requirements must be strictly respected. Many existing constrained generative models, especially those developed for computer vision, rely heavily on gradient information, which is often sparse or computationally expensive in some fields, e.g., partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we introduce a novel framework for adapting pre-trained, unconstrained flow-matching models to satisfy constraints exactly in a zero-shot manner without requiring expensive gradient computations or fine-tuning. Our framework, ECI sampling, alternates between extrapolation (E), correction (C), and interpolation (I) stages during each iterative sampling step of flow matching sampling to ensure accurate integration of constraint information while preserving the validity of the generation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across various PDE systems, showing that ECI-guided generation strictly adheres to physical constraints and accurately captures complex distribution shifts induced by these constraints. Empirical results demonstrate that our framework consistently outperforms baseline approaches in various zero-shot constrained generation tasks and also achieves competitive results in the regression tasks without additional fine-tuning.

Syama Sundar Rangapuram, Jan Gasthaus, Lorenzo Stella et al.

This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions by sampling from the empirical distribution according to a tunable strategy. By virtue of this, the model is always able to produce reasonable forecasts (i.e., predictions within the observed data range) without fail unlike classical models that suffer from numerical stability on some data distributions. Moreover, we develop a global version of the proposed method that automatically learns the sampling strategy by exploiting the information across multiple related time series. The empirical evaluation shows that the proposed methods have reasonable and consistent performance across all datasets, proving them to be strong baselines to be considered in one's forecasting toolbox.

Haoran Li, Yuli Tian, Yonghui Wang et al.

Distilling 3D representations from pretrained 2D diffusion models is essential for 3D creative applications across gaming, film, and interior design. Current SDS-based methods are hindered by inefficient information distillation from diffusion models, which prevents the creation of photorealistic 3D contents. In this paper, we first reevaluate the SDS approach by analyzing its fundamental nature as a basic image editing process that commonly results in over-saturation, over-smoothing, lack of rich content and diversity due to the poor-quality single-step denoising. In light of this, we then propose a novel method called 3D Generation by Editing (GE3D). Each iteration of GE3D utilizes a 2D editing framework that combines a noising trajectory to preserve the information of the input image, alongside a text-guided denoising trajectory. We optimize the process by aligning the latents across both trajectories. This approach fully exploits pretrained diffusion models to distill multi-granularity information through multiple denoising steps, resulting in photorealistic 3D outputs. Both theoretical and experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our approach, which not only advances 3D generation technology but also establishes a novel connection between 3D generation and 2D editing. This could potentially inspire further research in the field. Code and demos are released at https://jahnsonblack.github.io/GE3D/.

Guanxuan Jiang, Shirao Yang, Yuyang Wang et al.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly capable of autonomous decision-making, they introduce new challenges and opportunities for human-AI cooperation in mixed-motive contexts. While prior research has primarily examined AI in assistive or cooperative roles, little is known about how humans interact with AI agents perceived as independent and strategic actors. This study investigates human cooperative attitudes and behaviors toward LLM agents by engaging 30 participants (15 males, 15 females) in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games with agents differing in declared identity: purported human, rule-based AI, and LLM agent. Behavioral metrics, including cooperation rate, decision latency, unsolicited cooperative acts and trust restoration tolerance, were analyzed to assess the influence of agent identity and participant gender. Results revealed significant effects of declared agent identity on most cooperation-related behaviors, along with notable gender differences in decision latency. Furthermore, qualitative responses suggest that these behavioral differences were shaped by participants interpretations and expectations of the agents. These findings contribute to our understanding of human adaptation in competitive cooperation with autonomous agents and underscore the importance of agent framing in shaping effective and ethical human-AI interaction.

Abdoulaye Gamatié, Yuyang Wang

This paper investigates the application of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) in the design of embedded systems using machine learning (ML). As a case study, it addresses the challenging problem of static silent store prediction. This involves identifying redundant memory writes based only on static program features. Eliminating such stores enhances performance and energy efficiency by reducing memory access and bus traffic, especially in the presence of emerging non-volatile memory technologies. To achieve this, we propose a methodology consisting of: 1) the development of relevant ML models for explaining silent store prediction, and 2) the application of XAI to explain these models. We employ two state-of-the-art model-agnostic XAI methods to analyze the causes of silent stores. Through the case study, we evaluate the effectiveness of the methods. We find that these methods provide explanations for silent store predictions, which are consistent with known causes of silent store occurrences from previous studies. Typically, this allows us to confirm the prevalence of silent stores in operations that write the zero constant into memory, or the absence of silent stores in operations involving loop induction variables. This suggests the potential relevance of XAI in analyzing ML models' decision in embedded system design. From the case study, we share some valuable insights and pitfalls we encountered. More generally, this study aims to lay the groundwork for future research in the emerging field of XAI for embedded system design.

Annan Yu, Danielle C. Maddix, Boran Han et al.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are a class of potentially powerful, general-purpose tools for time series forecasting and related temporal tasks, but their behavior is strongly shaped by subtle inductive biases in their design. Rather than developing a new model and claiming that it is better than existing TSFMs, e.g., by winning on existing well-established benchmarks, our objective is to understand how the various ``knobs'' of the training process affect model quality. Using a mix of theory and controlled empirical evaluation, we identify several design choices (patch size, embedding choice, training objective, etc.) and show how they lead to implicit biases in fundamental model properties (temporal behavior, geometric structure, how aggressively or not the model regresses to the mean, etc.); and we show how these biases can be intuitive or very counterintuitive, depending on properties of the model and data. We also illustrate in a case study on outlier handling how multiple biases can interact in complex ways; and we discuss implications of our results for learning the bitter lesson and building TSFMs.

Sining Zhoubian, Yuyang Wang, Zhihuan Jiang

Rock Classification is an essential geological problem since it provides important formation information. However, exploration on this problem using convolutional neural networks is not sufficient. To tackle this problem, we propose two approaches using residual neural networks. We first adopt data augmentation methods to enlarge our dataset. By modifying kernel sizes, normalization methods and composition based on ResNet34, we achieve an accuracy of 70.1% on the test dataset, with an increase of 3.5% compared to regular Resnet34. Furthermore, using a similar backbone like BoTNet that incorporates multihead self attention, we additionally use internal residual connections in our model. This boosts the model's performance, achieving an accuracy of 73.7% on the test dataset. We also explore how the number of bottleneck transformer blocks may influence model performance. We discover that models with more than one bottleneck transformer block may not further improve performance. Finally, we believe that our approach can inspire future work related to this problem and our model design can facilitate the development of new residual model architectures.

Hilaf Hasson, Danielle C. Maddix, Yuyang Wang et al.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

TaeHo Yoon, Youngsuk Park, Ernest K. Ryu et al.

Probabilistic time series forecasting has played critical role in decision-making processes due to its capability to quantify uncertainties. Deep forecasting models, however, could be prone to input perturbations, and the notion of such perturbations, together with that of robustness, has not even been completely established in the regime of probabilistic forecasting. In this work, we propose a framework for robust probabilistic time series forecasting. First, we generalize the concept of adversarial input perturbations, based on which we formulate the concept of robustness in terms of bounded Wasserstein deviation. Then we extend the randomized smoothing technique to attain robust probabilistic forecasters with theoretical robustness certificates against certain classes of adversarial perturbations. Lastly, extensive experiments demonstrate that our methods are empirically effective in enhancing the forecast quality under additive adversarial attacks and forecast consistency under supplement of noisy observations.

Hao Wang, Yifei Ma, Hao Ding et al.

Recurrent neural networks have proven effective in modeling sequential user feedbacks for recommender systems. However, they usually focus solely on item relevance and fail to effectively explore diverse items for users, therefore harming the system performance in the long run. To address this problem, we propose a new type of recurrent neural networks, dubbed recurrent exploration networks (REN), to jointly perform representation learning and effective exploration in the latent space. REN tries to balance relevance and exploration while taking into account the uncertainty in the representations. Our theoretical analysis shows that REN can preserve the rate-optimal sublinear regret even when there exists uncertainty in the learned representations. Our empirical study demonstrates that REN can achieve satisfactory long-term rewards on both synthetic and real-world recommendation datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art models.

Danielle C Maddix, Nadim Saad, Yuyang Wang

The transport of traffic flow can be modeled by the advection equation. Finite difference and finite volumes methods have been used to numerically solve this hyperbolic equation on a mesh. Advection has also been modeled discretely on directed graphs using the graph advection operator [4, 18]. In this paper, we first show that we can reformulate this graph advection operator as a finite difference scheme. We then propose the Directed Graph Advection Matérn Gaussian Process (DGAMGP) model that incorporates the dynamics of this graph advection operator into the kernel of a trainable Matérn Gaussian Process to effectively model traffic flow and its uncertainty as an advective process on a directed graph.

Dheeraj Baby, Hilaf Hasson, Yuyang Wang

We consider the framework of non-stationary Online Convex Optimization where a learner seeks to control its dynamic regret against an arbitrary sequence of comparators. When the loss functions are strongly convex or exp-concave, we demonstrate that Strongly Adaptive (SA) algorithms can be viewed as a principled way of controlling dynamic regret in terms of path variation $V_T$ of the comparator sequence. Specifically, we show that SA algorithms enjoy $\tilde O(\sqrt{TV_T} \vee \log T)$ and $\tilde O(\sqrt{dTV_T} \vee d\log T)$ dynamic regret for strongly convex and exp-concave losses respectively without apriori knowledge of $V_T$. The versatility of the principled approach is further demonstrated by the novel results in the setting of learning against bounded linear predictors and online regression with Gaussian kernels. Under a related setting, the second component of the paper addresses an open question posed by Zhdanov and Kalnishkan (2010) that concerns online kernel regression with squared error losses. We derive a new lower bound on a certain penalized regret which establishes the near minimax optimality of online Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR). Our lower bound can be viewed as an RKHS extension to the lower bound derived in Vovk (2001) for online linear regression in finite dimensions.

Youngsuk Park, Danielle Maddix, François-Xavier Aubet et al.

Quantile regression is an effective technique to quantify uncertainty, fit challenging underlying distributions, and often provide full probabilistic predictions through joint learnings over multiple quantile levels. A common drawback of these joint quantile regressions, however, is \textit{quantile crossing}, which violates the desirable monotone property of the conditional quantile function. In this work, we propose the Incremental (Spline) Quantile Functions I(S)QF, a flexible and efficient distribution-free quantile estimation framework that resolves quantile crossing with a simple neural network layer. Moreover, I(S)QF inter/extrapolate to predict arbitrary quantile levels that differ from the underlying training ones. Equipped with the analytical evaluation of the continuous ranked probability score of I(S)QF representations, we apply our methods to NN-based times series forecasting cases, where the savings of the expensive re-training costs for non-trained quantile levels is particularly significant. We also provide a generalization error analysis of our proposed approaches under the sequence-to-sequence setting. Lastly, extensive experiments demonstrate the improvement of consistency and accuracy errors over other baselines.

Hao Yen, Chao-Han Huck Yang, Hu Hu et al.

We propose a novel neural model compression strategy combining data augmentation, knowledge transfer, pruning, and quantization for device-robust acoustic scene classification (ASC). Specifically, we tackle the ASC task in a low-resource environment leveraging a recently proposed advanced neural network pruning mechanism, namely Lottery Ticket Hypothesis (LTH), to find a sub-network neural model associated with a small amount non-zero model parameters. The effectiveness of LTH for low-complexity acoustic modeling is assessed by investigating various data augmentation and compression schemes, and we report an efficient joint framework for low-complexity multi-device ASC, called \emph{Acoustic Lottery}. Acoustic Lottery could compress an ASC model up to $1/10^{4}$ and attain a superior performance (validation accuracy of 79.4% and Log loss of 0.64) compared to its not compressed seed model. All results reported in this work are based on a joint effort of four groups, namely GT-USTC-UKE-Tencent, aiming to address the "Low-Complexity Acoustic Scene Classification (ASC) with Multiple Devices" in the DCASE 2021 Challenge Task 1a.

Hao Ding, Yifei Ma, Anoop Deoras et al.

Performance of recommender systems (RS) relies heavily on the amount of training data available. This poses a chicken-and-egg problem for early-stage products, whose amount of data, in turn, relies on the performance of their RS. On the other hand, zero-shot learning promises some degree of generalization from an old dataset to an entirely new dataset. In this paper, we explore the possibility of zero-shot learning in RS. We develop an algorithm, dubbed ZEro-Shot Recommenders (ZESRec), that is trained on an old dataset and generalize to a new one where there are neither overlapping users nor overlapping items, a setting that contrasts typical cross-domain RS that has either overlapping users or items. Different from categorical item indices, i.e., item ID, in previous methods, ZESRec uses items' natural-language descriptions (or description embeddings) as their continuous indices, and therefore naturally generalize to any unseen items. In terms of users, ZESRec builds upon recent advances on sequential RS to represent users using their interactions with items, thereby generalizing to unseen users as well. We study three pairs of real-world RS datasets and demonstrate that ZESRec can successfully enable recommendations in such a zero-shot setting, opening up new opportunities for resolving the chicken-and-egg problem for data-scarce startups or early-stage products.

Xiaoyong Jin, Youngsuk Park, Danielle C. Maddix et al.

Recently, deep neural networks have gained increasing popularity in the field of time series forecasting. A primary reason for their success is their ability to effectively capture complex temporal dynamics across multiple related time series. The advantages of these deep forecasters only start to emerge in the presence of a sufficient amount of data. This poses a challenge for typical forecasting problems in practice, where there is a limited number of time series or observations per time series, or both. To cope with this data scarcity issue, we propose a novel domain adaptation framework, Domain Adaptation Forecaster (DAF). DAF leverages statistical strengths from a relevant domain with abundant data samples (source) to improve the performance on the domain of interest with limited data (target). In particular, we use an attention-based shared module with a domain discriminator across domains and private modules for individual domains. We induce domain-invariant latent features (queries and keys) and retrain domain-specific features (values) simultaneously to enable joint training of forecasters on source and target domains. A main insight is that our design of aligning keys allows the target domain to leverage source time series even with different characteristics. Extensive experiments on various domains demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic and real-world datasets, and ablation studies verify the effectiveness of our design choices.

Alexander Alexandrov, Konstantinos Benidis, Michael Bohlke-Schneider et al.

We introduce Gluon Time Series (GluonTS, available at https://gluon-ts.mxnet.io), a library for deep-learning-based time series modeling. GluonTS simplifies the development of and experimentation with time series models for common tasks such as forecasting or anomaly detection. It provides all necessary components and tools that scientists need for quickly building new models, for efficiently running and analyzing experiments and for evaluating model accuracy.

Yuyang Wang, Alex Smola, Danielle C. Maddix et al.

Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/or dependent time series is a practically relevant and challenging task. Classical time series models fail to capture complex patterns in the data, and multivariate techniques struggle to scale to large problem sizes. Their reliance on strong structural assumptions makes them data-efficient, and allows them to provide uncertainty estimates. The converse is true for models based on deep neural networks, which can learn complex patterns and dependencies given enough data. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that incorporates the benefits of both approaches. Our new method is data-driven and scalable via a latent, global, deep component. It also handles uncertainty through a local classical model. We provide both theoretical and empirical evidence for the soundness of our approach through a necessary and sufficient decomposition of exchangeable time series into a global and a local part. Our experiments demonstrate the advantages of our model both in term of data efficiency, accuracy and computational complexity.

Danielle C. Maddix, Yuyang Wang, Alex Smola

A large collection of time series poses significant challenges for classical and neural forecasting approaches. Classical time series models fail to fit data well and to scale to large problems, but succeed at providing uncertainty estimates. The converse is true for deep neural networks. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that incorporates the benefits of both approaches. Our new method is data-driven and scalable via a latent, global, deep component. It also handles uncertainty through a local classical Gaussian Process model. Our experiments demonstrate that our method obtains higher accuracy than state-of-the-art methods.

Lucas Roberts, Leo Razoumov, Lin Su et al.

Rapidly growing product lines and services require a finer-granularity forecast that considers geographic locales. However the open question remains, how to assess the quality of a spatio-temporal forecast? In this manuscript we introduce a metric to evaluate spatio-temporal forecasts. This metric is based on an Opti- mal Transport (OT) problem. The metric we propose is a constrained OT objec- tive function using the Gini impurity function as a regularizer. We demonstrate through computer experiments both the qualitative and the quantitative charac- teristics of the Gini regularized OT problem. Moreover, we show that the Gini regularized OT problem converges to the classical OT problem, when the Gini regularized problem is considered as a function of λ, the regularization parame-ter. The convergence to the classical OT solution is faster than the state-of-the-art Entropic-regularized OT[Cuturi, 2013] and results in a numerically more stable algorithm.

Yuyang Wang, Roni Khardon, Dmitry Pechyony et al.

Efficient online learning with pairwise loss functions is a crucial component in building large-scale learning system that maximizes the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve. In this paper we investigate the generalization performance of online learning algorithms with pairwise loss functions. We show that the existing proof techniques for generalization bounds of online algorithms with a univariate loss can not be directly applied to pairwise losses. In this paper, we derive the first result providing data-dependent bounds for the average risk of the sequence of hypotheses generated by an arbitrary online learner in terms of an easily computable statistic, and show how to extract a low risk hypothesis from the sequence. We demonstrate the generality of our results by applying it to two important problems in machine learning. First, we analyze two online algorithms for bipartite ranking; one being a natural extension of the perceptron algorithm and the other using online convex optimization. Secondly, we provide an analysis for the risk bound for an online algorithm for supervised metric learning.

Yuyang Wang, Roni Khardon, Pavlos Protopapas

Multi-task learning leverages shared information among data sets to improve the learning performance of individual tasks. The paper applies this framework for data where each task is a phase-shifted periodic time series. In particular, we develop a novel Bayesian nonparametric model capturing a mixture of Gaussian processes where each task is a sum of a group-specific function and a component capturing individual variation, in addition to each task being phase shifted. We develop an efficient \textsc{em} algorithm to learn the parameters of the model. As a special case we obtain the Gaussian mixture model and \textsc{em} algorithm for phased-shifted periodic time series. Furthermore, we extend the proposed model by using a Dirichlet Process prior and thereby leading to an infinite mixture model that is capable of doing automatic model selection. A Variational Bayesian approach is developed for inference in this model. Experiments in regression, classification and class discovery demonstrate the performance of the proposed models using both synthetic data and real-world time series data from astrophysics. Our methods are particularly useful when the time series are sparsely and non-synchronously sampled.