Deep Non-Parametric Time Series Forecaster
This provides reliable forecasting tools for practitioners, but it is incremental as it builds on non-parametric methods with a global learning extension.
The paper tackled the problem of time series forecasting by proposing non-parametric baseline models that generate predictions by sampling from empirical distributions, ensuring reasonable forecasts without numerical stability issues. The result showed consistent performance across datasets, establishing them as strong baselines.
This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions by sampling from the empirical distribution according to a tunable strategy. By virtue of this, the model is always able to produce reasonable forecasts (i.e., predictions within the observed data range) without fail unlike classical models that suffer from numerical stability on some data distributions. Moreover, we develop a global version of the proposed method that automatically learns the sampling strategy by exploiting the information across multiple related time series. The empirical evaluation shows that the proposed methods have reasonable and consistent performance across all datasets, proving them to be strong baselines to be considered in one's forecasting toolbox.