Paula Cordero-Encinar

Paula Cordero-Encinar, Georgy Tyukin, Andrew B. Duncan

Existing training approaches for large language models learn a single set of parameters, based on large volumes of data, which is typically heterogeneous, conflicting and often outright contradictory. As a result, the model is forced to compress conflicting goals, and inherent uncertainties into a single, averaged pattern of behaviour. We propose an $α$-Rényi variational framework for learning distributions over post-training parameters, offering an uncertainty-aware alternative to deep ensemble approaches. The resulting variational objective interpolates between classical variational Bayes and predictively oriented posterior learning, balancing between globally plausible individual models against systems of complementary specialists. We identify local stability criteria, demonstrating how model misspecification can make non-degenerate posterior spread locally favourable, manifesting contradictory or conflicting data as epistemic uncertainty. We apply our framework to LLM post-training, learning an ensemble of LoRA adapters attached to a shared, frozen base model, providing a scalable training procedure for both supervised fine-tuning and preference optimisation. Our approach enables training examples to be softly routed across ensemble members, promoting model specialisation and providing actionable uncertainty estimates across different tasks.

James Matthew Young, Paula Cordero-Encinar, Sebastian Reich et al.

We develop a diffusion-based sampler for target distributions known up to a normalising constant. To this end, we rely on the well-known diffusion path that smoothly interpolates between a (simple) base distribution and the target distribution, widely used in diffusion models. Our approach is based on a practical implementation of diffusion-annealed Langevin Monte Carlo, which approximates the diffusion path with convergence guarantees. We tackle the score estimation problem by developing an efficient sequential Monte Carlo sampler that evolves auxiliary variables from conditional distributions along the path, which provides principled score estimates for time-varying distributions. We further develop novel control variate schedules that minimise the variance of these score estimates. Finally, we provide theoretical guarantees and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several synthetic and real-world datasets.

Paula Cordero-Encinar, O. Deniz Akyildiz, Andrew B. Duncan

We investigate the theoretical properties of general diffusion (interpolation) paths and their Langevin Monte Carlo implementation, referred to as diffusion annealed Langevin Monte Carlo (DALMC), under weak conditions on the data distribution. Specifically, we analyse and provide non-asymptotic error bounds for the annealed Langevin dynamics where the path of distributions is defined as Gaussian convolutions of the data distribution as in diffusion models. We then extend our results to recently proposed heavy-tailed (Student's t) diffusion paths, demonstrating their theoretical properties for heavy-tailed data distributions for the first time. Our analysis provides theoretical guarantees for a class of score-based generative models that interpolate between a simple distribution (Gaussian or Student's t) and the data distribution in finite time. This approach offers a broader perspective compared to standard score-based diffusion approaches, which are typically based on a forward Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) noising process.

Paula Cordero-Encinar, Andrew B. Duncan

Recent advances such as self-consistency and test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) improve the reliability of large language models (LLMs) without additional supervision, yet their underlying mechanisms and statistical guarantees remain poorly understood. We present a unified framework for certifiable inference in LLMs, showing that majority voting provides a statistical certificate of self-consistency: under mild assumptions, the aggregated answer coincides with the mode of the model's terminal distribution with high probability. We derive finite-sample and anytime-valid concentration bounds that quantify this confidence, and introduce the Martingale Majority Certificate (MMC), a sequential stopping rule that adaptively determines when sufficient samples have been drawn. We further prove that label-free post-training methods such as TTRL implicitly sharpen the answer distribution by exponentially tilting it toward its mode, thereby reducing the number of samples required for certification. Building on this insight, we propose new post-training objectives that explicitly optimise this trade-off between sharpness and bias. Together, these results explain and connect two central test-time scaling strategies, self-consistency and TTRL, within a single statistical framework for label-free, certifiable reliability in reasoning LLMs.

Paula Cordero-Encinar, Tobias Schröder, Peter Yatsyshin et al.

Selecting cost-effective optimal sensor configurations for subsequent inference of parameters in black-box stochastic systems faces significant computational barriers. We propose a novel and robust approach, modelling the joint distribution over input parameters and solution with a joint energy-based model, trained on simulation data. Unlike existing simulation-based inference approaches, which must be tied to a specific set of point evaluations, we learn a functional representation of parameters and solution. This is used as a resolution-independent plug-and-play surrogate for the joint distribution, which can be conditioned over any set of points, permitting an efficient approach to sensor placement. We demonstrate the validity of our framework on a variety of stochastic problems, showing that our method provides highly informative sensor locations at a lower computational cost compared to conventional approaches.