Abraham Atsiwo

Abraham Atsiwo

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) highlights the essence of financial news in stock price movement. Financial news comes in the form of corporate announcements, news titles, and other forms of digital text. The generation of insights from financial news can be done with sentiment analysis. General-purpose language models are too general for sentiment analysis in finance. Curated labeled data for fine-tuning general-purpose language models are scare, and existing fine-tuned models for sentiment analysis in finance do not capture the maximum context width. We hypothesize that using actual and synthetic data can improve performance. We introduce BertNSP-finance to concatenate shorter financial sentences into longer financial sentences, and finbert-lc to determine sentiment from digital text. The results show improved performance on the accuracy and the f1 score for the financial phrasebank data with $50\%$ and $100\%$ agreement levels.

Abraham Atsiwo

This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed approach predicts bubble formation by integrating textual and quantitative data sources. In the first step, bubble periods in the S&P 500 index are identified using a right-tailed unit root test, a widely recognized real-time bubble detection method. The second step extracts sentiment features from large-scale financial news articles using natural language processing (NLP) techniques, which capture investors' expectations and behavioral patterns. In the final step, ensemble learning methods are applied to predict bubble occurrences based on high sentiment-based and macroeconomic predictors. Model performance is evaluated through k-fold cross-validation and compared against benchmark machine learning algorithms. Empirical results indicate that the proposed three-step ensemble approach significantly improves predictive accuracy and robustness, providing valuable early warning insights for investors, regulators, and policymakers in mitigating systemic financial risks.