A three-step machine learning approach to predict market bubbles with financial news
This work addresses the problem of systemic financial risk mitigation for investors, regulators, and policymakers, but it is incremental as it builds on traditional econometric approaches.
This study tackled the problem of predicting market bubbles in the S&P 500 by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators using a three-step machine learning framework, resulting in significantly improved predictive accuracy and robustness for early warning insights.
This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed approach predicts bubble formation by integrating textual and quantitative data sources. In the first step, bubble periods in the S&P 500 index are identified using a right-tailed unit root test, a widely recognized real-time bubble detection method. The second step extracts sentiment features from large-scale financial news articles using natural language processing (NLP) techniques, which capture investors' expectations and behavioral patterns. In the final step, ensemble learning methods are applied to predict bubble occurrences based on high sentiment-based and macroeconomic predictors. Model performance is evaluated through k-fold cross-validation and compared against benchmark machine learning algorithms. Empirical results indicate that the proposed three-step ensemble approach significantly improves predictive accuracy and robustness, providing valuable early warning insights for investors, regulators, and policymakers in mitigating systemic financial risks.