Yichao Lu

Moritz Neun, Christian Eichenberger, Henry Martin et al.

The global trends of urbanization and increased personal mobility force us to rethink the way we live and use urban space. The Traffic4cast competition series tackles this problem in a data-driven way, advancing the latest methods in machine learning for modeling complex spatial systems over time. In this edition, our dynamic road graph data combine information from road maps, $10^{12}$ probe data points, and stationary vehicle detectors in three cities over the span of two years. While stationary vehicle detectors are the most accurate way to capture traffic volume, they are only available in few locations. Traffic4cast 2022 explores models that have the ability to generalize loosely related temporal vertex data on just a few nodes to predict dynamic future traffic states on the edges of the entire road graph. In the core challenge, participants are invited to predict the likelihoods of three congestion classes derived from the speed levels in the GPS data for the entire road graph in three cities 15 min into the future. We only provide vehicle count data from spatially sparse stationary vehicle detectors in these three cities as model input for this task. The data are aggregated in 15 min time bins for one hour prior to the prediction time. For the extended challenge, participants are tasked to predict the average travel times on super-segments 15 min into the future - super-segments are longer sequences of road segments in the graph. The competition results provide an important advance in the prediction of complex city-wide traffic states just from publicly available sparse vehicle data and without the need for large amounts of real-time floating vehicle data.

Yichao Lu

Real-time traffic state estimation is essential for intelligent transportation systems. The NeurIPS 2022 Traffic4cast challenge provides an excellent testbed for benchmarking short-term traffic state estimation approaches. This technical report describes our solution to this challenge. In particular, we present an efficient two-stage gradient boosting framework for short-term traffic state estimation. The first stage derives the month, day of the week, and time slot index based on the sparse loop counter data, and the second stage predicts the future traffic states based on the sparse loop counter data and the derived month, day of the week, and time slot index. Experimental results demonstrate that our two-stage gradient boosting framework achieves strong empirical performance, achieving third place in both the core and the extended challenges while remaining highly efficient. The source code for this technical report is available at \url{https://github.com/YichaoLu/Traffic4cast2022}.

Ashish Shenoy, Yichao Lu, Srihari Jayakumar et al.

We introduce Lumos, the first end-to-end multimodal question-answering system with text understanding capabilities. At the core of Lumos is a Scene Text Recognition (STR) component that extracts text from first person point-of-view images, the output of which is used to augment input to a Multimodal Large Language Model (MM-LLM). While building Lumos, we encountered numerous challenges related to STR quality, overall latency, and model inference. In this paper, we delve into those challenges, and discuss the system architecture, design choices, and modeling techniques employed to overcome these obstacles. We also provide a comprehensive evaluation for each component, showcasing high quality and efficiency.

Christian Eichenberger, Moritz Neun, Henry Martin et al.

The IARAI Traffic4cast competitions at NeurIPS 2019 and 2020 showed that neural networks can successfully predict future traffic conditions 1 hour into the future on simply aggregated GPS probe data in time and space bins. We thus reinterpreted the challenge of forecasting traffic conditions as a movie completion task. U-Nets proved to be the winning architecture, demonstrating an ability to extract relevant features in this complex real-world geo-spatial process. Building on the previous competitions, Traffic4cast 2021 now focuses on the question of model robustness and generalizability across time and space. Moving from one city to an entirely different city, or moving from pre-COVID times to times after COVID hit the world thus introduces a clear domain shift. We thus, for the first time, release data featuring such domain shifts. The competition now covers ten cities over 2 years, providing data compiled from over 10^12 GPS probe data. Winning solutions captured traffic dynamics sufficiently well to even cope with these complex domain shifts. Surprisingly, this seemed to require only the previous 1h traffic dynamic history and static road graph as input.

Phillip Keung, Julian Salazar, Yichao Lu et al.

We describe an unsupervised method to create pseudo-parallel corpora for machine translation (MT) from unaligned text. We use multilingual BERT to create source and target sentence embeddings for nearest-neighbor search and adapt the model via self-training. We validate our technique by extracting parallel sentence pairs on the BUCC 2017 bitext mining task and observe up to a 24.5 point increase (absolute) in F1 scores over previous unsupervised methods. We then improve an XLM-based unsupervised neural MT system pre-trained on Wikipedia by supplementing it with pseudo-parallel text mined from the same corpus, boosting unsupervised translation performance by up to 3.5 BLEU on the WMT'14 French-English and WMT'16 German-English tasks and outperforming the previous state-of-the-art. Finally, we enrich the IWSLT'15 English-Vietnamese corpus with pseudo-parallel Wikipedia sentence pairs, yielding a 1.2 BLEU improvement on the low-resource MT task. We demonstrate that unsupervised bitext mining is an effective way of augmenting MT datasets and complements existing techniques like initializing with pre-trained contextual embeddings.

Phillip Keung, Yichao Lu, Julian Salazar et al.

Multilingual contextual embeddings have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in zero-shot cross-lingual transfer learning, where multilingual BERT is fine-tuned on one source language and evaluated on a different target language. However, published results for mBERT zero-shot accuracy vary as much as 17 points on the MLDoc classification task across four papers. We show that the standard practice of using English dev accuracy for model selection in the zero-shot setting makes it difficult to obtain reproducible results on the MLDoc and XNLI tasks. English dev accuracy is often uncorrelated (or even anti-correlated) with target language accuracy, and zero-shot performance varies greatly at different points in the same fine-tuning run and between different fine-tuning runs. These reproducibility issues are also present for other tasks with different pre-trained embeddings (e.g., MLQA with XLM-R). We recommend providing oracle scores alongside zero-shot results: still fine-tune using English data, but choose a checkpoint with the target dev set. Reporting this upper bound makes results more consistent by avoiding arbitrarily bad checkpoints.