Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox

Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox, Tiago Pimentel, Clara Meister et al. · cambridge, harvard

A fundamental result in psycholinguistics is that less predictable words take a longer time to process. One theoretical explanation for this finding is Surprisal Theory (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008), which quantifies a word's predictability as its surprisal, i.e. its negative log-probability given a context. While evidence supporting the predictions of Surprisal Theory have been replicated widely, most have focused on a very narrow slice of data: native English speakers reading English texts. Indeed, no comprehensive multilingual analysis exists. We address this gap in the current literature by investigating the relationship between surprisal and reading times in eleven different languages, distributed across five language families. Deriving estimates from language models trained on monolingual and multilingual corpora, we test three predictions associated with surprisal theory: (i) whether surprisal is predictive of reading times; (ii) whether expected surprisal, i.e. contextual entropy, is predictive of reading times; (iii) and whether the linking function between surprisal and reading times is linear. We find that all three predictions are borne out crosslinguistically. By focusing on a more diverse set of languages, we argue that these results offer the most robust link to-date between information theory and incremental language processing across languages.

Leshem Choshen, Ryan Cotterell, Mustafa Omer Gul et al. · ibm-research

The goal of the BabyLM is to stimulate new research connections between cognitive modeling and language model pretraining. We invite contributions in this vein to the BabyLM Workshop, which will also include the 4th iteration of the BabyLM Challenge. As in previous years, the challenge features two ``standard'' tracks (Strict and Strict-Small), in which participants must train language models on under 100M or 10M words of data, respectively. This year, we move beyond our previous English-only pretraining datasets with a new Multilingual track, focusing on English, Dutch, and Chinese. For the workshop, we call for papers related to the overall theme of BabyLM, which includes training efficiency, small-scale training datasets, cognitive modeling, model evaluation, and architecture innovation.

Andreas Opedal, Eleanor Chodroff, Ryan Cotterell et al.

We present a new perspective on how readers integrate context during real-time language comprehension. Our proposals build on surprisal theory, which posits that the processing effort of a linguistic unit (e.g., a word) is an affine function of its in-context information content. We first observe that surprisal is only one out of many potential ways that a contextual predictor can be derived from a language model. Another one is the pointwise mutual information (PMI) between a unit and its context, which turns out to yield the same predictive power as surprisal when controlling for unigram frequency. Moreover, both PMI and surprisal are correlated with frequency. This means that neither PMI nor surprisal contains information about context alone. In response to this, we propose a technique where we project surprisal onto the orthogonal complement of frequency, yielding a new contextual predictor that is uncorrelated with frequency. Our experiments show that the proportion of variance in reading times explained by context is a lot smaller when context is represented by the orthogonalized predictor. From an interpretability standpoint, this indicates that previous studies may have overstated the role that context has in predicting reading times.

Tatsuki Kuribayashi, Alex Warstadt, Yohei Oseki et al.

A recent study (Kuribayashi et al., 2025) has shown that human sentence processing behavior, typically measured on syntactically unchallenging constructions, can be effectively modeled using surprisal from early layers of large language models (LLMs). This raises the question of whether such advantages of internal layers extend to more syntactically challenging constructions, where surprisal has been reported to underestimate human cognitive effort. In this paper, we begin by exploring internal layers that better estimate human cognitive effort observed in syntactic ambiguity processing in English. Our experiments show that, in contrast to naturalistic reading, later layers better estimate such a cognitive effort, but still underestimate the human data. This dual alignment sheds light on different modes of sentence processing in humans and LMs: naturalistic reading employs a somewhat weak prediction akin to earlier layers of LMs, while syntactically challenging processing requires more fully-contextualized representations, better modeled by later layers of LMs. Motivated by these findings, we also explore several probability-update measures using shallow and deep layers of LMs, showing a complementary advantage to single-layer's surprisal in reading time modeling.

Xiulin Yang, Arianna Bisazza, Nathan Schneider et al.

How can children acquire native-level syntax from limited input? According to the Poverty of the Stimulus Hypothesis (PoSH), the linguistic input children receive is insufficient to explain certain generalizations that are robustly learned; innate linguistic constraints, many have argued, are thus necessary to explain language learning. Neural language models, which lack such language-specific constraints in their design, offer a computational test of this longstanding (but controversial) claim. We introduce \poshbench, a training-and-evaluation suite targeting question formation, islands to movement, and other English phenomena at the center of the PoSH arguments. Training Transformer models on 10--50M words of developmentally plausible text, we find indications of generalization on all phenomena even without direct positive evidence -- yet neural models remain less data-efficient and their generalizations are weaker than those of children. We further enhance our models with three recently proposed cognitively motivated inductive biases. We find these biases improve general syntactic competence but not \poshbench performance. Our findings challenge the claim that innate syntax is the only possible route to generalization, while suggesting that human-like data efficiency requires inductive biases beyond those tested here.

Xiulin Yang, Heidi Getz, Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox

What statistical conditions support learning hierarchical structure from linear input? In this paper, we address this question by focusing on the statistical distribution of function words. Function words have long been argued to play a crucial role in language acquisition due to their distinctive distributional properties, including high frequency, reliable association with syntactic structure, and alignment with phrase boundaries. We use cross-linguistic corpus analysis to first establish that all three properties are present across 186 studied languages. Next, we use a combination of counterfactual language modeling and ablation experiments to show that language variants preserving all three properties are more easily acquired by neural learners, with frequency and structural association contributing more strongly than boundary alignment. Follow-up probing and ablation analyses further reveal that different learning conditions lead to systematically different reliance on function words, indicating that similar performance can arise from distinct internal mechanisms.

Michael Y. Hu, Aaron Mueller, Candace Ross et al. · ibm-research

The BabyLM Challenge is a community effort to close the data-efficiency gap between human and computational language learners. Participants compete to optimize language model training on a fixed language data budget of 100 million words or less. This year, we released improved text corpora, as well as a vision-and-language corpus to facilitate research into cognitively plausible vision language models. Submissions were compared on evaluation tasks targeting grammatical ability, (visual) question answering, pragmatic abilities, and grounding, among other abilities. Participants could submit to a 10M-word text-only track, a 100M-word text-only track, and/or a 100M-word and image multimodal track. From 31 submissions employing diverse methods, a hybrid causal-masked language model architecture outperformed other approaches. No submissions outperformed the baselines in the multimodal track. In follow-up analyses, we found a strong relationship between training FLOPs and average performance across tasks, and that the best-performing submissions proposed changes to the training data, training objective, and model architecture. This year's BabyLM Challenge shows that there is still significant room for innovation in this setting, in particular for image-text modeling, but community-driven research can yield actionable insights about effective strategies for small-scale language modeling.

Tiago Pimentel, Clara Meister, Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox et al. · cambridge

Zipf (1935) posited that wordforms are optimized to minimize utterances' communicative costs. Under the assumption that cost is given by an utterance's length, he supported this claim by showing that words' lengths are inversely correlated with their frequencies. Communicative cost, however, can be operationalized in different ways. Piantadosi et al. (2011) claim that cost should be measured as the distance between an utterance's information rate and channel capacity, which we dub the channel capacity hypothesis (CCH) here. Following this logic, they then proposed that a word's length should be proportional to the expected value of its surprisal (negative log-probability in context). In this work, we show that Piantadosi et al.'s derivation does not minimize CCH's cost, but rather a lower bound, which we term CCH-lower. We propose a novel derivation, suggesting an improved way to minimize CCH's cost. Under this method, we find that a language's word lengths should instead be proportional to the surprisal's expectation plus its variance-to-mean ratio. Experimentally, we compare these three communicative cost functions: Zipf's, CCH-lower , and CCH. Across 13 languages and several experimental settings, we find that length is better predicted by frequency than either of the other hypotheses. In fact, when surprisal's expectation, or expectation plus variance-to-mean ratio, is estimated using better language models, it leads to worse word length predictions. We take these results as evidence that Zipf's longstanding hypothesis holds.

Jennifer Hu, Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox, Siyuan Song et al.

What have language models (LMs) learned about grammar? This question remains hotly debated, with major ramifications for linguistic theory. However, since probability and grammaticality are distinct notions in linguistics, it is not obvious what string probabilities can reveal about an LM's underlying grammatical knowledge. We present a theoretical analysis of the relationship between grammar, meaning, and string probability, based on simple assumptions about the generative process of corpus data. Our framework makes three predictions, which we validate empirically using 280K sentence pairs in English and Chinese: (1) correlation between the probability of strings within minimal pairs, i.e., string pairs with minimal semantic differences; (2) correlation between models' and humans' deltas within minimal pairs; and (3) poor separation in probability space between unpaired grammatical and ungrammatical strings. Our analyses give theoretical grounding for using probability to learn about LMs' structural knowledge, and suggest directions for future work in LM grammatical evaluation.

Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox, Cui Ding, Giovanni Acampa et al.

This paper argues that the relationship between lexical identity and prosody -- one well-studied parameter of linguistic variation -- can be characterized using information theory. We predict that languages that use prosody to make lexical distinctions should exhibit a higher mutual information between word identity and prosody, compared to languages that don't. We test this hypothesis in the domain of pitch, which is used to make lexical distinctions in tonal languages, like Cantonese. We use a dataset of speakers reading sentences aloud in ten languages across five language families to estimate the mutual information between the text and their pitch curves. We find that, across languages, pitch curves display similar amounts of entropy. However, these curves are easier to predict given their associated text in the tonal languages, compared to pitch- and stress-accent languages, and thus the mutual information is higher in these languages, supporting our hypothesis. Our results support perspectives that view linguistic typology as gradient, rather than categorical.

Kohei Kajikawa, Shinnosuke Isono, Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox

Real-time sentence comprehension imposes a significant load on working memory, as comprehenders must maintain contextual information to anticipate future input. While measures of such load have played an important role in psycholinguistic theories, they have been formalized, largely, using symbolic grammars, which assign discrete, uniform costs to syntactic predictions. This study proposes a measure of processing storage cost based on an information-theoretic formalization, as the amount of information previous words carry about future context, under uncertainty. Unlike previous discrete, grammar-based metrics, this measure is continuous, theory-neutral, and can be estimated from pre-trained neural language models. The validity of this approach is demonstrated through three analyses in English: our measure (i) recovers well-known processing asymmetries in center embeddings and relative clauses, (ii) correlates with a grammar-based storage cost in a syntactically-annotated corpus, and (iii) predicts reading-time variance in two large-scale naturalistic datasets over and above baseline models with traditional information-based predictors.

Tatsuya Aoyama, Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox, Nathan Schneider

Specialized attention heads dubbed induction heads (IHs) have been argued to underlie the remarkable in-context learning capabilities of modern language models; yet, a precise characterization of their emergence, especially in the context of language modeling, remains wanting. In this study, we investigate the relationship between statistical properties of the training data and IH formation in both natural and synthetic training data settings. We show that: (1) A simple equation combining batch size and context size predicts the point at which IHs form and that this emergence point is agnostic to model size; (2) Surface bigram repetition frequency and reliability strongly affect the formation of IHs, and we find an effective Pareto frontier in terms of these two values; (3) local dependency with high bigram repetition frequency and reliability is sufficient for IH formation, but when the frequency and reliability are low, categoriality and the shape of the marginal distribution matter.

Cui Ding, Yanning Yin, Lena A. Jäger et al.

Contemporary theories model language processing as integrating both top-down expectations and bottom-up inputs. One major prediction of such models is that the quality of the bottom-up inputs modulates ease of processing -- noisy inputs should lead to difficult and effortful comprehension. We test this prediction in the domain of reading. First, we propose an information-theoretic operationalization for the "quality" of bottom-up information as the mutual information (MI) between visual information and word identity. We formalize this prediction in a mathematical model of reading as a Bayesian update. Second, we test our operationalization by comparing participants' reading times in conditions where words' information quality has been reduced, either by occluding their top or bottom half, with full words. We collect data in English and Chinese. We then use multimodal language models to estimate the mutual information between visual inputs and words. We use these data to estimate the specific effect of reduced information quality on reading times. Finally, we compare how information is distributed across visual forms. In English and Chinese, the upper half contains more information about word identity than the lower half. However, the asymmetry is more pronounced in English, a pattern which is reflected in the reading times.

John Mansfield, Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox

This chapter examines current developments in linguistic theory and methods, focusing on the increasing integration of computational, cognitive, and evolutionary perspectives. We highlight four major themes shaping contemporary linguistics: (1) the explicit testing of hypotheses about symbolic representation, such as efficiency, locality, and conceptual semantic grounding; (2) the impact of artificial neural networks on theoretical debates and linguistic analysis; (3) the importance of intersubjectivity in linguistic theory; and (4) the growth of evolutionary linguistics. By connecting linguistics with computer science, psychology, neuroscience, and biology, we provide a forward-looking perspective on the changing landscape of linguistic research.

Samuel Kiegeland, Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox, Afra Amini et al.

Numerous previous studies have sought to determine to what extent language models, pretrained on natural language text, can serve as useful models of human cognition. In this paper, we are interested in the opposite question: whether we can directly optimize a language model to be a useful cognitive model by aligning it to human psychometric data. To achieve this, we introduce a novel alignment technique in which we fine-tune a language model to implicitly optimize the parameters of a linear regressor that directly predicts humans' reading times of in-context linguistic units, e.g., phonemes, morphemes, or words, using surprisal estimates derived from the language model. Using words as a test case, we evaluate our technique across multiple model sizes and datasets and find that it improves language models' psychometric predictive power. However, we find an inverse relationship between psychometric power and a model's performance on downstream NLP tasks as well as its perplexity on held-out test data. While this latter trend has been observed before (Oh et al., 2022; Shain et al., 2024), we are the first to induce it by manipulating a model's alignment to psychometric data.

Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox, Pranali Vani, Roger P. Levy

We present a targeted, scaled-up comparison of incremental processing in humans and neural language models by collecting by-word reaction time data for sixteen different syntactic test suites across a range of structural phenomena. Human reaction time data comes from a novel online experimental paradigm called the Interpolated Maze task. We compare human reaction times to by-word probabilities for four contemporary language models, with different architectures and trained on a range of data set sizes. We find that across many phenomena, both humans and language models show increased processing difficulty in ungrammatical sentence regions with human and model `accuracy' scores (a la Marvin and Linzen(2018)) about equal. However, although language model outputs match humans in direction, we show that models systematically under-predict the difference in magnitude of incremental processing difficulty between grammatical and ungrammatical sentences. Specifically, when models encounter syntactic violations they fail to accurately predict the longer reaction times observed in the human data. These results call into question whether contemporary language models are approaching human-like performance for sensitivity to syntactic violations.

Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox, Jon Gauthier, Jennifer Hu et al.

Human reading behavior is tuned to the statistics of natural language: the time it takes human subjects to read a word can be predicted from estimates of the word's probability in context. However, it remains an open question what computational architecture best characterizes the expectations deployed in real time by humans that determine the behavioral signatures of reading. Here we test over two dozen models, independently manipulating computational architecture and training dataset size, on how well their next-word expectations predict human reading time behavior on naturalistic text corpora. We find that across model architectures and training dataset sizes the relationship between word log-probability and reading time is (near-)linear. We next evaluate how features of these models determine their psychometric predictive power, or ability to predict human reading behavior. In general, the better a model's next-word expectations, the better its psychometric predictive power. However, we find nontrivial differences across model architectures. For any given perplexity, deep Transformer models and n-gram models generally show superior psychometric predictive power over LSTM or structurally supervised neural models, especially for eye movement data. Finally, we compare models' psychometric predictive power to the depth of their syntactic knowledge, as measured by a battery of syntactic generalization tests developed using methods from controlled psycholinguistic experiments. Once perplexity is controlled for, we find no significant relationship between syntactic knowledge and predictive power. These results suggest that different approaches may be required to best model human real-time language comprehension behavior in naturalistic reading versus behavior for controlled linguistic materials designed for targeted probing of syntactic knowledge.