Mihály Petreczky

Deividas Eringis, John Leth, Zheng-Hua Tan et al.

In this paper we derive a Probably Approxilmately Correct(PAC)-Bayesian error bound for linear time-invariant (LTI) stochastic dynamical systems with inputs. Such bounds are widespread in machine learning, and they are useful for characterizing the predictive power of models learned from finitely many data points. In particular, with the bound derived in this paper relates future average prediction errors with the prediction error generated by the model on the data used for learning. In turn, this allows us to provide finite-sample error bounds for a wide class of learning/system identification algorithms. Furthermore, as LTI systems are a sub-class of recurrent neural networks (RNNs), these error bounds could be a first step towards PAC-Bayesian bounds for RNNs.

Deividas Eringis, John Leth, Zheng-Hua Tan et al.

In this paper we derive a PAC-Bayesian-Like error bound for a class of stochastic dynamical systems with inputs, namely, for linear time-invariant stochastic state-space models (stochastic LTI systems for short). This class of systems is widely used in control engineering and econometrics, in particular, they represent a special case of recurrent neural networks. In this paper we 1) formalize the learning problem for stochastic LTI systems with inputs, 2) derive a PAC-Bayesian-Like error bound for such systems, 3) discuss various consequences of this error bound.

Dániel Rácz, Mihály Petreczky, Bálint Daróczy

We consider the problem of learning Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (neural ODEs) within the context of Linear Parameter-Varying (LPV) systems in continuous-time. LPV systems contain bilinear systems which are known to be universal approximators for non-linear systems. Moreover, a large class of neural ODEs can be embedded into LPV systems. As our main contribution we provide Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) bounds under stability for LPV systems related to neural ODEs. The resulting bounds have the advantage that they do not depend on the integration interval.

Deividas Eringis, John Leth, Zheng-Hua Tan et al.

In this paper, we derive a PAC-Bayes bound on the generalisation gap, in a supervised time-series setting for a special class of discrete-time non-linear dynamical systems. This class includes stable recurrent neural networks (RNN), and the motivation for this work was its application to RNNs. In order to achieve the results, we impose some stability constraints, on the allowed models. Here, stability is understood in the sense of dynamical systems. For RNNs, these stability conditions can be expressed in terms of conditions on the weights. We assume the processes involved are essentially bounded and the loss functions are Lipschitz. The proposed bound on the generalisation gap depends on the mixing coefficient of the data distribution, and the essential supremum of the data. Furthermore, the bound converges to zero as the dataset size increases. In this paper, we 1) formalize the learning problem, 2) derive a PAC-Bayesian error bound for such systems, 3) discuss various consequences of this error bound, and 4) show an illustrative example, with discussions on computing the proposed bound. Unlike other available bounds the derived bound holds for non i.i.d. data (time-series) and it does not grow with the number of steps of the RNN.

Deividas Eringis, John Leth, Zheng-Hua Tan et al.

In this short article, we showcase the derivation of the optimal (minimum error variance) estimator, when one part of the stochastic LTI system output is not measured but is able to be predicted from the measured system outputs. Similar derivations have been done before but not using state-space representation.