Haifan Zhang

Peisong Niu, Haifan Zhang, Yang Zhao et al.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose severe threats to life, infrastructure, and economies in tropical and subtropical regions, underscoring the critical need for accurate and timely forecasts of both track and intensity. Recent advances in AI-based weather forecasting have shown promise in improving TC track forecasts. However, these systems are typically trained on coarse-resolution reanalysis data (e.g., ERA5 at 0.25 degree), which constrains predicted TC positions to a fixed grid and introduces significant discretization errors. Moreover, intensity forecasting remains limited especially for strong TCs by the smoothing effect of coarse meteorological fields and the use of regression losses that bias predictions toward conditional means. To address these limitations, we propose BaguanCyclone, a novel, unified framework that integrates two key innovations: (1) a probabilistic center refinement module that models the continuous spatial distribution of TC centers, enabling finer track precision; and (2) a region-aware intensity forecasting module that leverages high-resolution internal representations within dynamically defined sub-grid zones around the TC core to better capture localized extremes. Evaluated on the global IBTrACS dataset across six major TC basins, our system consistently outperforms both operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and most AI-based baselines, delivering a substantial enhancement in forecast accuracy. Remarkably, BaguanCyclone excels in navigating meteorological complexities, consistently delivering accurate forecasts for re-intensification, sweeping arcs, twin cyclones, and meandering events. Our code is available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/Baguan-cyclone.

Ziqing Ma, Kai Ying, Xinyue Gu et al.

Accurate day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting is essential for integrating solar energy into the power grid. However, it remains challenging due to the pronounced diurnal cycle and inherently complex cloud dynamics. Current methods either lack fine-scale resolution (e.g., numerical weather prediction, weather foundation models) or degrade at longer lead times (e.g., satellite extrapolation). We propose Baguan-solar, a two-stage multimodal framework that fuses forecasts from Baguan, a global weather foundation model, with high-resolution geostationary satellite imagery to produce 24- hour irradiance forecasts at kilometer scale. Its decoupled two-stage design first forecasts day-night continuous intermediates (e.g., cloud cover) and then infers irradiance, while its modality fusion jointly preserves fine-scale cloud structures from satellite and large-scale constraints from Baguan forecasts. Evaluated over East Asia using CLDAS as ground truth, Baguan-solar outperforms strong baselines (including ECMWF IFS, vanilla Baguan, and SolarSeer), reducing RMSE by 16.08% and better resolving cloud-induced transients. An operational deployment of Baguan-solar has supported solar power forecasting in an eastern province in China, since July 2025. Our code is accessible at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/Baguansolar. git.

Shijie Ren, Xinyue Gu, Ziheng Peng et al.

Deep learning models for meteorological forecasting often fail in rare but high-impact events such as typhoons, where relevant data is scarce. Existing fine-tuning methods typically face a trade-off between overlooking these extreme events and overfitting them at the expense of overall performance. We propose TaCT, an interpretable concept-gated fine-tuning framework that solves the aforementioned issue by selective model improvement: models are adapted specifically for failure cases while preserving performance in common scenarios. To this end, TaCT automatically discovers failure-related internal concepts using Sparse Autoencoders and counterfactual analysis, and updates parameters only when the corresponding concepts are activated, rather than applying uniform adaptation. Experiments show consistent improvements in typhoon forecasting across different regions without degrading other meteorological variables. The identified concepts correspond to physically meaningful circulation patterns, revealing model biases and supporting trustworthy adaptation in scientific forecasting tasks. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Concept-Gated-Fine-tune-62AC.

Cedric Perauer, Laurenz Adrian Heidrich, Haifan Zhang et al.

Recently, progress in acquisition equipment such as LiDAR sensors has enabled sensing increasingly spacious outdoor 3D environments. Making sense of such 3D acquisitions requires fine-grained scene understanding, such as constructing instance-based 3D scene segmentations. Commonly, a neural network is trained for this task; however, this requires access to a large, densely annotated dataset, which is widely known to be challenging to obtain. To address this issue, in this work we propose to predict instance segmentations for 3D scenes in an unsupervised way, without relying on ground-truth annotations. To this end, we construct a learning framework consisting of two components: (1) a pseudo-annotation scheme for generating initial unsupervised pseudo-labels; and (2) a self-training algorithm for instance segmentation to fit robust, accurate instances from initial noisy proposals. To enable generating 3D instance mask proposals, we construct a weighted proxy-graph by connecting 3D points with edges integrating multi-modal image- and point-based self-supervised features, and perform graph-cuts to isolate individual pseudo-instances. We then build on a state-of-the-art point-based architecture and train a 3D instance segmentation model, resulting in significant refinement of initial proposals. To scale to arbitrary complexity 3D scenes, we design our algorithm to operate on local 3D point chunks and construct a merging step to generate scene-level instance segmentations. Experiments on the challenging SemanticKITTI benchmark demonstrate the potential of our approach, where it attains 13.3% higher Average Precision and 9.1% higher F1 score compared to the best-performing baseline. The code will be made publicly available at https://github.com/artonson/autoinst.