Kaan Ozbay

Xinyi Ning, Zilin Bian, Dachuan Zuo et al.

Accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for safe autonomous driving. Recent studies have incorporated safety risk into trajectory prediction to quantify dangers posed by surrounding agents. However, most risk-aware approaches use past risk information as a secondary signal to help guide decisions, overlooking its future evolution and uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a risk horizon profiling (RHP) module that incorporates a continuous, learnable potential field model for risk-aware trajectory prediction. The RHP module calculates the spatial-temporal proximity of surrounding objects to profile risk distributions across future horizons, which supports better trajectory prediction by adaptively identifying what human drivers perceive as critical moments. We evaluate our method on two datasets from different driving settings, highD for highway corridors and SHRP2 for urban streets, which cover diverse risk scenarios including safe, near-crash, and crash events. Compared to the baseline methods, our framework achieves a 25.0\% reduction in 5s RMSE on the highD dataset and a 29.1\% reduction in 5s minFDE on SHRP2. These results indicate strong performance for both short and long horizon prediction and robust generalization across highway and urban scenarios. The proposed method enables more realistic AV path planning and strategic selection, thereby supporting safer autonomous driving and more advanced driver-assistance systems. The source code for this work is available at: https://github.com/bilab-nyu/RHP

Yiyou Sun, Xinyang Han, Weichen Zhang et al.

Recent AI systems have achieved strong results on a wide range of benchmarks, yet these gains have not translated into economically meaningful deployment across many professional domains. We argue that this gap is largely an evaluation problem: widely used benchmarks lack sustained performance measurement on real and economically valuable workflows. This paper introduces Agents' Last Exam (ALE), a benchmark designed to evaluate AI agents on long-horizon, economically valuable, real-world tasks with verifiable outcomes. Developed in collaboration with 250+ industry experts, ALE covers non-physical industries defined with reference to O*NET / SOC 2018 (the U.S. federal occupational taxonomy). It is organized around a task taxonomy with 55 subfields grouped into 13 industry clusters covering 1K+ tasks. Current results show that the hardest tier remains far from saturated: across mainstream harness and backbone configurations, the average full pass rate is 2.6%. ALE is designed as a living benchmark: its task pool grows continuously as new workflows and industries are onboarded. More broadly, ALE is intended not merely as another leaderboard, but as an instrument for closing the gap between benchmark success and GDP-relevant impact.

Tao Li, Zilin Bian, Haozhe Lei et al.

In urban traffic management, the primary challenge of dynamically and efficiently monitoring traffic conditions is compounded by the insufficient utilization of thousands of surveillance cameras along the intelligent transportation system. This paper introduces the multi-level Traffic-responsive Tilt Camera surveillance system (TTC-X), a novel framework designed for dynamic and efficient monitoring and management of traffic in urban networks. By leveraging widely deployed pan-tilt-cameras (PTCs), TTC-X overcomes the limitations of a fixed field of view in traditional surveillance systems by providing mobilized and 360-degree coverage. The innovation of TTC-X lies in the integration of advanced machine learning modules, including a detector-predictor-controller structure, with a novel Predictive Correlated Online Learning (PiCOL) methodology and the Spatial-Temporal Graph Predictor (STGP) for real-time traffic estimation and PTC control. The TTC-X is tested and evaluated under three experimental scenarios (e.g., maximum traffic flow capture, dynamic route planning, traffic state estimation) based on a simulation environment calibrated using real-world traffic data in Brooklyn, New York. The experimental results showed that TTC-X captured over 60\% total number of vehicles at the network level, dynamically adjusted its route recommendation in reaction to unexpected full-lane closure events, and reconstructed link-level traffic states with best MAE less than 1.25 vehicle/hour. Demonstrating scalability, cost-efficiency, and adaptability, TTC-X emerges as a powerful solution for urban traffic management in both cyber-physical and real-world environments.

Yu Tang, Li Jin, Kaan Ozbay

Well-calibrated traffic flow models are fundamental to understanding traffic phenomena and designing control strategies. Traditional calibration has been developed base on optimization methods. In this paper, we propose a novel physics-informed, learning-based calibration approach that achieves performances comparable to and even better than those of optimization-based methods. To this end, we combine the classical deep autoencoder, an unsupervised machine learning model consisting of one encoder and one decoder, with traffic flow models. Our approach informs the decoder of the physical traffic flow models and thus induces the encoder to yield reasonable traffic parameters given flow and speed measurements. We also introduce the denoising autoencoder into our method so that it can handles not only with normal data but also with corrupted data with missing values. We verified our approach with a case study of I-210 E in California.

Tao Li, Zilin Bian, Haozhe Lei et al.

Traditional mobility management strategies emphasize macro-level mobility oversight from traffic-sensing infrastructures, often overlooking safety risks that directly affect road users. To address this, we propose a Digital Twin-based Driver Risk-Aware Intelligent Mobility Analytics (DT-DIMA) system. The DT-DIMA system integrates real-time traffic information from pan-tilt-cameras (PTCs), synchronizes this data into a digital twin to accurately replicate the physical world, and predicts network-wide mobility and safety risks in real time. The system's innovation lies in its integration of spatial-temporal modeling, simulation, and online control modules. Tested and evaluated under normal traffic conditions and incidental situations (e.g., unexpected accidents, pre-planned work zones) in a simulated testbed in Brooklyn, New York, DT-DIMA demonstrated mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) ranging from 8.40% to 15.11% in estimating network-level traffic volume and MAPEs from 0.85% to 12.97% in network-level safety risk prediction. In addition, the highly accurate safety risk prediction enables PTCs to preemptively monitor road segments with high driving risks before incidents take place. Such proactive PTC surveillance creates around a 5-minute lead time in capturing traffic incidents. The DT-DIMA system enables transportation managers to understand mobility not only in terms of traffic patterns but also driver-experienced safety risks, allowing for proactive resource allocation in response to various traffic situations. To the authors' best knowledge, DT-DIMA is the first urban mobility management system that considers both mobility and safety risks based on digital twin architecture.

Ruixuan Zhang, Beichen Wang, Juexiao Zhang et al.

The increasing availability of traffic videos functioning on a 24/7/365 time scale has the great potential of increasing the spatio-temporal coverage of traffic accidents, which will help improve traffic safety. However, analyzing footage from hundreds, if not thousands, of traffic cameras in a 24/7/365 working protocol remains an extremely challenging task, as current vision-based approaches primarily focus on extracting raw information, such as vehicle trajectories or individual object detection, but require laborious post-processing to derive actionable insights. We propose SeeUnsafe, a new framework that integrates Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) agents to transform video-based traffic accident analysis from a traditional extraction-then-explanation workflow to a more interactive, conversational approach. This shift significantly enhances processing throughput by automating complex tasks like video classification and visual grounding, while improving adaptability by enabling seamless adjustments to diverse traffic scenarios and user-defined queries. Our framework employs a severity-based aggregation strategy to handle videos of various lengths and a novel multimodal prompt to generate structured responses for review and evaluation and enable fine-grained visual grounding. We introduce IMS (Information Matching Score), a new MLLM-based metric for aligning structured responses with ground truth. We conduct extensive experiments on the Toyota Woven Traffic Safety dataset, demonstrating that SeeUnsafe effectively performs accident-aware video classification and visual grounding by leveraging off-the-shelf MLLMs. Source code will be available at \url{https://github.com/ai4ce/SeeUnsafe}.

Rui Ma, Zilin Bian, Kaan Ozbay

During large-scale evacuations, concentrated electric vehicle (EV) charging demand can overload fixed charging stations (FCSs), leading to prolonged waiting time and increased risk exposure. To address this challenge, this study proposes dynamically deploying mobile charging trucks (MCTs) to complement FCSs, and develops an Adaptive Risk-aware MCT Deployment (ARMD) framework for real-time operation. It divides the MCT deployment into two problems: risk-aware allocation of MCTs among FCSs and dynamic routing of MCTs to the assigned FCSs, and solves them under an offline-to-online paradigm. The resource allocation problem is formulated as a decentralized partially observable Markov decision process, and a multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO)-based policy is developed to coordinate multiple MCTs under decentralized observations. The policy is pre-trained offline in an evacuation simulator and adaptively refined online according to current evacuation context. For routing, a spatio-temporal travel time predictor is developed to support rolling-horizon route updates. The proposed framework is evaluated in a simulated hurricane evacuation environment built using real-world data from Hillsborough County, Florida. Experiments show that ARMD consistently outperforms offline optimization, online heuristic dispatch, and rolling-horizon optimization in reducing risk exposure. For demand perturbation scenarios, ARMD reduces average risk exposure by up to 71.1%, relative to the baseline without MCTs. In the case of fixed e-vehicle charging infrastructure or road link failures, ARMD achieves 39.3% to 60.5% reduction in average risk exposure, with its advantages becoming more pronounced as the severity of disruption increases. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of ARMD in enhancing mobile charging operations for realistic scenarios of uncertain evacuation conditions.

Haozhe Lei, Ya-Ting Yang, Tao Li et al.

This paper presents the Traffic Adaptive Moving-window Patrolling Algorithm (TAMPA), designed to improve real-time incident management during major events like sports tournaments and concerts. Such events significantly stress transportation networks, requiring efficient and adaptive patrol solutions. TAMPA integrates predictive traffic modeling and real-time complaint estimation, dynamically optimizing patrol deployment. Using dynamic programming, the algorithm continuously adjusts patrol strategies within short planning windows, effectively balancing immediate response and efficient routing. Leveraging the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality, TAMPA detects significant shifts in complaint patterns, triggering proactive adjustments in patrol routes. Theoretical analyses ensure performance remains closely aligned with optimal solutions. Simulation results from an urban traffic network demonstrate TAMPA's superior performance, showing improvements of approximately 87.5\% over stationary methods and 114.2\% over random strategies. Future work includes enhancing adaptability and incorporating digital twin technology for improved predictive accuracy, particularly relevant for events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup at MetLife Stadium.

Fan Zuo, Donglin Zhou, Jingqin Gao et al.

Accurate, scalable traffic monitoring is critical for real-time and long-term transportation management, particularly during disruptions such as natural disasters, large construction projects, or major policy changes like New York City's first-in-the-nation congestion pricing program. However, widespread sensor deployment remains limited due to high installation, maintenance, and data management costs. While traffic cameras offer a cost-effective alternative, existing video analytics struggle with dynamic camera viewpoints and massive data volumes from large camera networks. This study presents an end-to-end AI-based framework leveraging existing traffic camera infrastructure for high-resolution, longitudinal analysis at scale. A fine-tuned YOLOv11 model, trained on localized urban scenes, extracts multimodal traffic density and classification metrics in real time. To address inconsistencies from non-stationary pan-tilt-zoom cameras, we introduce a novel graph-based viewpoint normalization method. A domain-specific large language model was also integrated to process massive data from a 24/7 video stream to generate frequent, automated summaries of evolving traffic patterns, a task far exceeding manual capabilities. We validated the system using over 9 million images from roughly 1,000 traffic cameras during the early rollout of NYC congestion pricing in 2025. Results show a 9% decline in weekday passenger vehicle density within the Congestion Relief Zone, early truck volume reductions with signs of rebound, and consistent increases in pedestrian and cyclist activity at corridor and zonal scales. Experiments showed that example-based prompts improved LLM's numerical accuracy and reduced hallucinations. These findings demonstrate the framework's potential as a practical, infrastructure-ready solution for large-scale, policy-relevant traffic monitoring with minimal human intervention.

Zilin Bian, Jingqin Gao, Kaan Ozbay et al.

While deep learning has shown success in predicting traffic states, most methods treat it as a general prediction task without considering transportation aspects. Recently, graph neural networks have proven effective for this task, but few incorporate external factors that impact roadway capacity and traffic flow. This study introduces the Roadway Capacity Driven Graph Convolution Network (RCDGCN) model, which incorporates static and dynamic roadway capacity attributes in spatio-temporal settings to predict network-wide traffic states. The model was evaluated on two real-world datasets with different transportation factors: the ICM-495 highway network and an urban network in Manhattan, New York City. Results show RCDGCN outperformed baseline methods in forecasting accuracy. Analyses, including ablation experiments, weight analysis, and case studies, investigated the effect of capacity-related factors. The study demonstrates the potential of using RCDGCN for transportation system management.

Zilin Bian, Jingqin Gao, Kaan Ozbay et al.

Although traffic prediction has been receiving considerable attention with a number of successes in the context of intelligent transportation systems, the prediction of traffic states over a complex transportation network that contains different road types has remained a challenge. This study proposes a multi-scale graph wavelet temporal convolution network (MSGWTCN) to predict the traffic states in complex transportation networks. Specifically, a multi-scale spatial block is designed to simultaneously capture the spatial information at different levels, and the gated temporal convolution network is employed to extract the temporal dependencies of the data. The model jointly learns to mount multiple levels of the spatial interactions by stacking graph wavelets with different scales. Two real-world datasets are used in this study to investigate the model performance, including a highway network in Seattle and a dense road network of Manhattan in New York City. Experiment results show that the proposed model outperforms other baseline models. Furthermore, different scales of graph wavelets are found to be effective in extracting local, intermediate and global information at the same time and thus enable the model to learn a complex transportation network topology with various types of road segments. By carefully customizing the scales of wavelets, the model is able to improve the prediction performance and better adapt to different network configurations.

Ruixuan Zhang, Wenyu Han, Zilin Bian et al.

Collecting traffic data is crucial for transportation systems and urban planning, and is often more desirable through easy-to-deploy but power-constrained devices, due to the unavailability or high cost of power and network infrastructure. The limited power means an inevitable trade-off between data collection duration and accuracy/resolution. We introduce a novel learning-based framework that strategically decides observation timings for battery-powered devices and reconstructs the full data stream from sparsely sampled observations, resulting in minimal performance loss and a significantly prolonged system lifetime. Our framework comprises a predictor, a controller, and an estimator. The predictor utilizes historical data to forecast future trends within a fixed time horizon. The controller uses the forecasts to determine the next optimal timing for data collection. Finally, the estimator reconstructs the complete data profile from the sampled observations. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method on PeMS data by an RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) predictor and estimator, and a DRQN (Deep Recurrent Q-Network) controller, and compare it against the baseline that uses Kalman filter and uniform sampling. The results indicate that our method outperforms the baseline, primarily due to the inclusion of more representative data points in the profile, resulting in an overall 10\% improvement in estimation accuracy. Source code will be publicly available.

Ding Wang, Fan Zuo, Jingqin Gao et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected travel behaviors and transportation system operations, and cities are grappling with what policies can be effective for a phased reopening shaped by social distancing. This edition of the white paper updates travel trends and highlights an agent-based simulation model's results to predict the impact of proposed phased reopening strategies. It also introduces a real-time video processing method to measure social distancing through cameras on city streets.

Qian Ye, Xiaohong Chen, Onur Kalan et al.

This study explores how people view and respond to the proposals of NYC congestion pricing evolve in time. To understand these responses, Twitter data is collected and analyzed. Critical groups in the recurrent process are detected by statistically analyzing the active users and the most mentioned accounts, and the trends of people's attitudes and concerns over the years are identified with text mining and hybrid Nature Language Processing techniques, including LDA topic modeling and LSTM sentiment classification. The result shows that multiple interest groups were involved and played crucial roles during the proposal, especially Mayor and Governor, MTA, and outer-borough representatives. The public shifted the concern of focus from the plan details to a wider city's sustainability and fairness. Furthermore, the plan's approval relies on several elements, the joint agreement reached in the political process, strong motivation in the real-world, the scheme based on balancing multiple interests, and groups' awareness of tolling's benefits and necessity.

Fan Zuo, Jingxing Wang, Jingqin Gao et al.

The COVID-19 outbreak has dramatically changed travel behavior in affected cities. The C2SMART research team has been investigating the impact of COVID-19 on mobility and sociability. New York City (NYC) and Seattle, two of the cities most affected by COVID-19 in the U.S. were included in our initial study. An all-in-one dashboard with data mining and cloud computing capabilities was developed for interactive data analytics and visualization to facilitate the understanding of the impact of the outbreak and corresponding policies such as social distancing on transportation systems. This platform is updated regularly and continues to evolve with the addition of new data, impact metrics, and visualizations to assist public and decision-makers to make informed decisions. This paper presents the architecture of the COVID related mobility data dashboard and preliminary mobility and sociability metrics for NYC and Seattle.

Xi Xiong, Kaan Ozbay, Li Jin et al.

Modern intelligent transportation systems provide data that allow real-time dynamic demand prediction, which is essential for planning and operations. The main challenge of prediction of dynamic Origin-Destination (O-D) demand matrices is that demands cannot be directly measured by traffic sensors; instead, they have to be inferred from aggregate traffic flow data on traffic links. Specifically, spatial correlation, congestion and time dependent factors need to be considered in general transportation networks. In this paper we propose a novel O-D prediction framework combining heterogeneous prediction in graph neural networks and Kalman filter to recognize spatial and temporal patterns simultaneously. The underlying road network topology is converted into a corresponding line graph in the newly designed Fusion Line Graph Convolutional Networks (FL-GCNs), which provide a general framework of predicting spatial-temporal O-D flows from link information. Data from New Jersey Turnpike network are used to evaluate the proposed model. The results show that our proposed approach yields the best performance under various prediction scenarios. In addition, the advantage of combining deep neural networks and Kalman filter is demonstrated.