Stefan Feuerriegel

Yilmazcan Ozyurt, Stefan Feuerriegel, Ce Zhang · eth-zurich

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) aims at learning a machine learning model using a labeled source domain that performs well on a similar yet different, unlabeled target domain. UDA is important in many applications such as medicine, where it is used to adapt risk scores across different patient cohorts. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for UDA of time series data, called CLUDA. Specifically, we propose a contrastive learning framework to learn contextual representations in multivariate time series, so that these preserve label information for the prediction task. In our framework, we further capture the variation in the contextual representations between source and target domain via a custom nearest-neighbor contrastive learning. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first framework to learn domain-invariant, contextual representation for UDA of time series data. We evaluate our framework using a wide range of time series datasets to demonstrate its effectiveness and show that it achieves state-of-the-art performance for time series UDA.

Stefan Feuerriegel, Jochen Hartmann, Christian Janiesch et al.

The term "generative AI" refers to computational techniques that are capable of generating seemingly new, meaningful content such as text, images, or audio from training data. The widespread diffusion of this technology with examples such as Dall-E 2, GPT-4, and Copilot is currently revolutionizing the way we work and communicate with each other. In this article, we provide a conceptualization of generative AI as an entity in socio-technical systems and provide examples of models, systems, and applications. Based on that, we introduce limitations of current generative AI and provide an agenda for Business & Information Systems Engineering (BISE) research. Different from previous works, we focus on generative AI in the context of information systems, and, to this end, we discuss several opportunities and challenges that are unique to the BISE community and make suggestions for impactful directions for BISE research.

Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen, Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering inferences for complex, long-range dependencies challenging. In this paper, we develop a novel Causal Transformer for estimating counterfactual outcomes over time. Our model is specifically designed to capture complex, long-range dependencies among time-varying confounders. For this, we combine three transformer subnetworks with separate inputs for time-varying covariates, previous treatments, and previous outcomes into a joint network with in-between cross-attentions. We further develop a custom, end-to-end training procedure for our Causal Transformer. Specifically, we propose a novel counterfactual domain confusion loss to address confounding bias: it aims to learn adversarial balanced representations, so that they are predictive of the next outcome but non-predictive of the current treatment assignment. We evaluate our Causal Transformer based on synthetic and real-world datasets, where it achieves superior performance over current baselines. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work proposing transformer-based architecture for estimating counterfactual outcomes from longitudinal data.

Julian Senoner, Bernhard Kratzwald, Milan Kuzmanovic et al. · eth-zurich

To meet order fulfillment targets, manufacturers seek to optimize production schedules. Machine learning can support this objective by predicting throughput times on production lines given order specifications. However, this is challenging when manufacturers produce customized products because customization often leads to changes in the probability distribution of operational data -- so-called distributional shifts. Distributional shifts can harm the performance of predictive models when deployed to future customer orders with new specifications. The literature provides limited advice on how such distributional shifts can be addressed in operations management. Here, we propose a data-driven approach based on adversarial learning and job shop scheduling, which allows us to account for distributional shifts in manufacturing settings with high degrees of product customization. We empirically validate our proposed approach using real-world data from a job shop production that supplies large metal components to an oil platform construction yard. Across an extensive series of numerical experiments, we find that our adversarial learning approach outperforms common baselines. Overall, this paper shows how production managers can improve their decision-making under distributional shifts.

Zhenrui Yue, Huimin Zeng, Bernhard Kratzwald et al. · eth-zurich

Question answering (QA) has recently shown impressive results for answering questions from customized domains. Yet, a common challenge is to adapt QA models to an unseen target domain. In this paper, we propose a novel self-supervised framework called QADA for QA domain adaptation. QADA introduces a novel data augmentation pipeline used to augment training QA samples. Different from existing methods, we enrich the samples via hidden space augmentation. For questions, we introduce multi-hop synonyms and sample augmented token embeddings with Dirichlet distributions. For contexts, we develop an augmentation method which learns to drop context spans via a custom attentive sampling strategy. Additionally, contrastive learning is integrated in the proposed self-supervised adaptation framework QADA. Unlike existing approaches, we generate pseudo labels and propose to train the model via a novel attention-based contrastive adaptation method. The attention weights are used to build informative features for discrepancy estimation that helps the QA model separate answers and generalize across source and target domains. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to leverage hidden space augmentation and attention-based contrastive adaptation for self-supervised domain adaptation in QA. Our evaluation shows that QADA achieves considerable improvements on multiple target datasets over state-of-the-art baselines in QA domain adaptation.

Dennis Frauen, Fergus Imrie, Alicia Curth et al.

Unobserved confounding is common in many applications, making causal inference from observational data challenging. As a remedy, causal sensitivity analysis is an important tool to draw causal conclusions under unobserved confounding with mathematical guarantees. In this paper, we propose NeuralCSA, a neural framework for generalized causal sensitivity analysis. Unlike previous work, our framework is compatible with (i) a large class of sensitivity models, including the marginal sensitivity model, f-sensitivity models, and Rosenbaum's sensitivity model; (ii) different treatment types (i.e., binary and continuous); and (iii) different causal queries, including (conditional) average treatment effects and simultaneous effects on multiple outcomes. The generality of NeuralCSA is achieved by learning a latent distribution shift that corresponds to a treatment intervention using two conditional normalizing flows. We provide theoretical guarantees that NeuralCSA is able to infer valid bounds on the causal query of interest and also demonstrate this empirically using both simulated and real-world data.

Maria De-Arteaga, Stefan Feuerriegel, Maytal Saar-Tsechansky

The extensive adoption of business analytics (BA) has brought financial gains and increased efficiencies. However, these advances have simultaneously drawn attention to rising legal and ethical challenges when BA inform decisions with fairness implications. As a response to these concerns, the emerging study of algorithmic fairness deals with algorithmic outputs that may result in disparate outcomes or other forms of injustices for subgroups of the population, especially those who have been historically marginalized. Fairness is relevant on the basis of legal compliance, social responsibility, and utility; if not adequately and systematically addressed, unfair BA systems may lead to societal harms and may also threaten an organization's own survival, its competitiveness, and overall performance. This paper offers a forward-looking, BA-focused review of algorithmic fairness. We first review the state-of-the-art research on sources and measures of bias, as well as bias mitigation algorithms. We then provide a detailed discussion of the utility-fairness relationship, emphasizing that the frequent assumption of a trade-off between these two constructs is often mistaken or short-sighted. Finally, we chart a path forward by identifying opportunities for business scholars to address impactful, open challenges that are key to the effective and responsible deployment of BA.

Dennis Frauen, Tobias Hatt, Valentyn Melnychuk et al.

In medical practice, treatments are selected based on the expected causal effects on patient outcomes. Here, the gold standard for estimating causal effects are randomized controlled trials; however, such trials are costly and sometimes even unethical. Instead, medical practice is increasingly interested in estimating causal effects among patient (sub)groups from electronic health records, that is, observational data. In this paper, we aim at estimating the average causal effect (ACE) from observational data (patient trajectories) that are collected over time. For this, we propose DeepACE: an end-to-end deep learning model. DeepACE leverages the iterative G-computation formula to adjust for the bias induced by time-varying confounders. Moreover, we develop a novel sequential targeting procedure which ensures that DeepACE has favorable theoretical properties, i.e., is doubly robust and asymptotically efficient. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that proposes an end-to-end deep learning model tailored for estimating time-varying ACEs. We compare DeepACE in an extensive number of experiments, confirming that it achieves state-of-the-art performance. We further provide a case study for patients suffering from low back pain to demonstrate that DeepACE generates important and meaningful findings for clinical practice. Our work enables practitioners to develop effective treatment recommendations based on population effects.

Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen, Stefan Feuerriegel

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the distribution of potential outcomes. In this work, we estimate the density of potential outcomes after interventions from observational data. For this, we propose a novel, fully-parametric deep learning method called Interventional Normalizing Flows. Specifically, we combine two normalizing flows, namely (i) a nuisance flow for estimating nuisance parameters and (ii) a target flow for parametric estimation of the density of potential outcomes. We further develop a tractable optimization objective based on a one-step bias correction for efficient and doubly robust estimation of the target flow parameters. As a result, our Interventional Normalizing Flows offer a properly normalized density estimator. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our Interventional Normalizing Flows are expressive and highly effective, and scale well with both sample size and high-dimensional confounding. To the best of our knowledge, our Interventional Normalizing Flows are the first proper fully-parametric, deep learning method for density estimation of potential outcomes.

Dennis Frauen, Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) from observational data is relevant in many fields such as personalized medicine. However, in practice, the treatment assignment is usually confounded by unobserved variables and thus introduces bias. A remedy to remove the bias is the use of instrumental variables (IVs). Such settings are widespread in medicine (e.g., trials where the treatment assignment is used as binary IV). In this paper, we propose a novel, multiply robust machine learning framework, called MRIV, for estimating CATEs using binary IVs and thus yield an unbiased CATE estimator. Different from previous work for binary IVs, our framework estimates the CATE directly via a pseudo outcome regression. (1)~We provide a theoretical analysis where we show that our framework yields multiple robust convergence rates: our CATE estimator achieves fast convergence even if several nuisance estimators converge slowly. (2)~We further show that our framework asymptotically outperforms state-of-the-art plug-in IV methods for CATE estimation, in the sense that it achieves a faster rate of convergence if the CATE is smoother than the individual outcome surfaces. (3)~We build upon our theoretical results and propose a tailored deep neural network architecture called MRIV-Net for CATE estimation using binary IVs. Across various computational experiments, we demonstrate empirically that our MRIV-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance. To the best of our knowledge, our MRIV is the first multiply robust machine learning framework tailored to estimating CATEs in the binary IV setting.

Mathias Kraus, Stefan Feuerriegel, Maytal Saar-Tsechansky

Problem Definition. Increasing costs of healthcare highlight the importance of effective disease prevention. However, decision models for allocating preventive care are lacking. Methodology/Results. In this paper, we develop a data-driven decision model for determining a cost-effective allocation of preventive treatments to patients at risk. Specifically, we combine counterfactual inference, machine learning, and optimization techniques to build a scalable decision model that can exploit high-dimensional medical data, such as the data found in modern electronic health records. Our decision model is evaluated based on electronic health records from 89,191 prediabetic patients. We compare the allocation of preventive treatments (metformin) prescribed by our data-driven decision model with that of current practice. We find that if our approach is applied to the U.S. population, it can yield annual savings of $1.1 billion. Finally, we analyze the cost-effectiveness under varying budget levels. Managerial Implications. Our work supports decision-making in health management, with the goal of achieving effective disease prevention at lower costs. Importantly, our decision model is generic and can thus be used for effective allocation of preventive care for other preventable diseases.

Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen, Stefan Feuerriegel

Counterfactual inference aims to answer retrospective "what if" questions and thus belongs to the most fine-grained type of inference in Pearl's causality ladder. Existing methods for counterfactual inference with continuous outcomes aim at point identification and thus make strong and unnatural assumptions about the underlying structural causal model. In this paper, we relax these assumptions and aim at partial counterfactual identification of continuous outcomes, i.e., when the counterfactual query resides in an ignorance interval with informative bounds. We prove that, in general, the ignorance interval of the counterfactual queries has non-informative bounds, already when functions of structural causal models are continuously differentiable. As a remedy, we propose a novel sensitivity model called Curvature Sensitivity Model. This allows us to obtain informative bounds by bounding the curvature of level sets of the functions. We further show that existing point counterfactual identification methods are special cases of our Curvature Sensitivity Model when the bound of the curvature is set to zero. We then propose an implementation of our Curvature Sensitivity Model in the form of a novel deep generative model, which we call Augmented Pseudo-Invertible Decoder. Our implementation employs (i) residual normalizing flows with (ii) variational augmentations. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our Augmented Pseudo-Invertible Decoder. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first partial identification model for Markovian structural causal models with continuous outcomes.

Theresa Blümlein, Joel Persson, Stefan Feuerriegel

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are used in medicine to tailor sequential treatment decisions to patients by considering patient heterogeneity. Common methods for learning optimal DTRs, however, have shortcomings: they are typically based on outcome prediction and not treatment effect estimation, or they use linear models that are restrictive for patient data from modern electronic health records. To address these shortcomings, we develop two novel methods for learning optimal DTRs that effectively handle complex patient data. We call our methods DTR-CT and DTR-CF. Our methods are based on a data-driven estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects using causal tree methods, specifically causal trees and causal forests, that learn non-linear relationships, control for time-varying confounding, are doubly robust, and explainable. To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first that adapts causal tree methods for learning optimal DTRs. We evaluate our proposed methods using synthetic data and then apply them to real-world data from intensive care units. Our methods outperform state-of-the-art baselines in terms of cumulative regret and percentage of optimal decisions by a considerable margin. Our work improves treatment recommendations from electronic health record and is thus of direct relevance for personalized medicine.

Dennis Frauen, Valentyn Melnychuk, Stefan Feuerriegel

Algorithmic decision-making in practice must be fair for legal, ethical, and societal reasons. To achieve this, prior research has contributed various approaches that ensure fairness in machine learning predictions, while comparatively little effort has focused on fairness in decision-making, specifically off-policy learning. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for fair off-policy learning: we learn decision rules from observational data under different notions of fairness, where we explicitly assume that observational data were collected under a different potentially discriminatory behavioral policy. For this, we first formalize different fairness notions for off-policy learning. We then propose a neural network-based framework to learn optimal policies under different fairness notions. We further provide theoretical guarantees in the form of generalization bounds for the finite-sample version of our framework. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through extensive numerical experiments using both simulated and real-world data. Altogether, our work enables algorithmic decision-making in a wide array of practical applications where fairness must be ensured.

Abdurahman Maarouf, Dominik Bär, Dominique Geissler et al.

Online propaganda poses a severe threat to the integrity of societies. However, existing datasets for detecting online propaganda have a key limitation: they were annotated using weak labels that can be noisy and even incorrect. To address this limitation, our work makes the following contributions: (1) We present HQP: a novel dataset (N = 30,000) for detecting online propaganda with high-quality labels. To the best of our knowledge, HQP is the first large-scale dataset for detecting online propaganda that was created through human annotation. (2) We show empirically that state-of-the-art language models fail in detecting online propaganda when trained with weak labels (AUC: 64.03). In contrast, state-of-the-art language models can accurately detect online propaganda when trained with our high-quality labels (AUC: 92.25), which is an improvement of ~44%. (3) We show that prompt-based learning using a small sample of high-quality labels can still achieve a reasonable performance (AUC: 80.27) while significantly reducing the cost of labeling. (4) We extend HQP to HQP+ to test how well propaganda across different contexts can be detected. Crucially, our work highlights the importance of high-quality labels for sensitive NLP tasks such as propaganda detection.

Milan Kuzmanovic, Tobias Hatt, Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is challenging, especially when treatment information is missing. Although this is a widespread problem in practice, CATE estimation with missing treatments has received little attention. In this paper, we analyze CATE estimation in the setting with missing treatments where unique challenges arise in the form of covariate shifts. We identify two covariate shifts in our setting: (i) a covariate shift between the treated and control population; and (ii) a covariate shift between the observed and missing treatment population. We first theoretically show the effect of these covariate shifts by deriving a generalization bound for estimating CATE in our setting with missing treatments. Then, motivated by our bound, we develop the missing treatment representation network (MTRNet), a novel CATE estimation algorithm that learns a balanced representation of covariates using domain adaptation. By using balanced representations, MTRNet provides more reliable CATE estimates in the covariate domains where the data are not fully observed. In various experiments with semi-synthetic and real-world data, we show that our algorithm improves over the state-of-the-art by a substantial margin.

Daniel Tschernutter, Tobias Hatt, Stefan Feuerriegel

Personalized treatment decisions have become an integral part of modern medicine. Thereby, the aim is to make treatment decisions based on individual patient characteristics. Numerous methods have been developed for learning such policies from observational data that achieve the best outcome across a certain policy class. Yet these methods are rarely interpretable. However, interpretability is often a prerequisite for policy learning in clinical practice. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for interpretable off-policy learning via hyperbox search. In particular, our policies can be represented in disjunctive normal form (i.e., OR-of-ANDs) and are thus intelligible. We prove a universal approximation theorem that shows that our policy class is flexible enough to approximate any measurable function arbitrarily well. For optimization, we develop a tailored column generation procedure within a branch-and-bound framework. Using a simulation study, we demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art methods from interpretable off-policy learning in terms of regret. Using real-word clinical data, we perform a user study with actual clinical experts, who rate our policies as highly interpretable.

Dominique Geissler, Stefan Feuerriegel

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was accompanied by a large-scale, pro-Russian propaganda campaign on social media. However, the strategy behind the dissemination of propaganda has remained unclear, particularly how the online discourse was strategically shaped by the propagandists' community. Here, we analyze the strategy of the Twitter community using an inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) approach. Specifically, IRL allows us to model online behavior as a Markov decision process, where the goal is to infer the underlying reward structure that guides propagandists when interacting with users with a supporting or opposing stance toward the invasion. Thereby, we aim to understand empirically whether and how between-user interactions are strategically used to promote the proliferation of Russian propaganda. For this, we leverage a large-scale dataset with 349,455 posts with pro-Russian propaganda from 132,131 users. We show that bots and humans follow a different strategy: bots respond predominantly to pro-invasion messages, suggesting that they seek to drive virality; while messages indicating opposition primarily elicit responses from humans, suggesting that they tend to engage in critical discussions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing the strategy behind propaganda from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine through the lens of IRL.

Abdurahman Maarouf, Stefan Feuerriegel, Nicolas Pröllochs

Investors are continuously seeking profitable investment opportunities in startups and, hence, for effective decision-making, need to predict a startup's probability of success. Nowadays, investors can use not only various fundamental information about a startup (e.g., the age of the startup, the number of founders, and the business sector) but also textual description of a startup's innovation and business model, which is widely available through online venture capital (VC) platforms such as Crunchbase. To support the decision-making of investors, we develop a machine learning approach with the aim of locating successful startups on VC platforms. Specifically, we develop, train, and evaluate a tailored, fused large language model to predict startup success. Thereby, we assess to what extent self-descriptions on VC platforms are predictive of startup success. Using 20,172 online profiles from Crunchbase, we find that our fused large language model can predict startup success, with textual self-descriptions being responsible for a significant part of the predictive power. Our work provides a decision support tool for investors to find profitable investment opportunities.

Moritz von Zahn, Oliver Hinz, Stefan Feuerriegel

Machine learning can provide predictions with disparate outcomes, in which subgroups of the population (e.g., defined by age, gender, or other sensitive attributes) are systematically disadvantaged. In order to comply with upcoming legislation, practitioners need to locate such disparate outcomes. However, previous literature typically detects disparities through statistical procedures for when the sensitive attribute is specified a priori. This limits applicability in real-world settings where datasets are high dimensional and, on top of that, sensitive attributes may be unknown. As a remedy, we propose a data-driven framework called Automatic Location of Disparities (ALD) which aims at locating disparities in machine learning. ALD meets several demands from industry: ALD (1) is applicable to arbitrary machine learning classifiers; (2) operates on different definitions of disparities (e.g., statistical parity or equalized odds); and (3) deals with both categorical and continuous predictors even if disparities arise from complex and multi-way interactions known as intersectionality (e. g., age above 60 and female). ALD produces interpretable audit reports as output. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ALD based on both synthetic and real-world datasets. As a result, we empower practitioners to effectively locate and mitigate disparities in machine learning algorithms, conduct algorithmic audits, and protect individuals from discrimination.

Philipp Hummler, Christof Naumzik, Stefan Feuerriegel

The availability of charging stations is an important factor for promoting electric vehicles (EVs) as a carbon-friendly way of transportation. Hence, for city planners, the crucial question is where to place charging stations so that they reach a large utilization. Here, we hypothesize that the utilization of EV charging stations is driven by the proximity to points-of-interest (POIs), as EV owners have a certain limited willingness to walk between charging stations and POIs. To address our research question, we propose the use of web mining: we characterize the influence of different POIs from OpenStreetMap on the utilization of charging stations. For this, we present a tailored interpretable model that takes into account the full spatial distributions of both the POIs and the charging stations. This allows us then to estimate the distance and magnitude of the influence of different POI types. We evaluate our model with data from approx. 300 charging stations and 4,000 POIs in Amsterdam, Netherlands. Our model achieves a superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines and, on top of that, is able to offer an unmatched level of interpretability. To the best of our knowledge, no previous paper has quantified the POI influence on charging station utilization from real-world usage data by estimating the spatial proximity in which POIs are relevant. As such, our findings help city planners in identifying effective locations for charging stations.

Konstantin Hess, Dennis Frauen, Niki Kilbertus et al.

Neural operators are widely used to approximate solution maps of complex physical systems. In many applications, however, the goal is not to recover the full solution trajectory, but to summarize the solution trajectory via a scalar target quantity (e.g., a functional such as time spent in a target range, time above a threshold, accumulated cost, or total energy). In this paper, we introduce DOPE (debiased neural operator): a semiparametric estimator for such target quantities of solution trajectories obtained from neural operators. DOPE is broadly applicable to settings with both partial and irregular observations and can be combined with arbitrary neural operator architectures. We make three main contributions. (1) We show that, in contrast to DOPE, naive plug-in estimation can suffer from first-order bias. (2) To address this, we derive a novel one-step, Neyman-orthogonal estimator that treats the neural operator as a high-dimensional nuisance mapping between function spaces, and removes the leading bias term. For this, DOPE uses a weighting mechanism that simultaneously accounts for irregular observation designs and for how sensitive the target quantity is to perturbations of the underlying trajectory. (3) To learn the weights, we extend automatic debiased machine learning to operator-valued nuisances via Riesz regression. We demonstrate the benefits of DOPE across various numerical experiments.

Tobias Hatt, Stefan Feuerriegel

In order to steer e-commerce users towards making a purchase, marketers rely upon predictions of when users exit without purchasing. Previously, such predictions were based upon hidden Markov models (HMMs) due to their ability of modeling latent shopping phases with different user intents. In this work, we develop a duration-dependent hidden Markov model. In contrast to traditional HMMs, it explicitly models the duration of latent states and thereby allows states to become "sticky". The proposed model is superior to prior HMMs in detecting user exits: out of 100 user exits without purchase, it correctly identifies an additional 18. This helps marketers in better managing the online behavior of e-commerce customers. The reason for the superior performance of our model is the duration dependence, which allows our model to recover latent states that are characterized by a distorted sense of time. We finally provide a theoretical explanation for this, which builds upon the concept of "flow".

Konstantin Hess, Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen et al.

Treatment effect estimation in continuous time is crucial for personalized medicine. However, existing methods for this task are limited to point estimates of the potential outcomes, whereas uncertainty estimates have been ignored. Needless to say, uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in medical applications. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian neural controlled differential equation (BNCDE) for treatment effect estimation in continuous time. In our BNCDE, the time dimension is modeled through a coupled system of neural controlled differential equations and neural stochastic differential equations, where the neural stochastic differential equations allow for tractable variational Bayesian inference. Thereby, for an assigned sequence of treatments, our BNCDE provides meaningful posterior predictive distributions of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first tailored neural method to provide uncertainty estimates of treatment effects in continuous time. As such, our method is of direct practical value for promoting reliable decision-making in medicine.

Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen, Stefan Feuerriegel

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic refutation framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATE is non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose a neural refutation framework which performs partial identification of CATE or, equivalently, aims at estimating lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our refutation framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

Dennis Frauen, Konstantin Hess, Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) over time is crucial in many disciplines such as personalized medicine. For example, electronic health records are commonly collected over several time periods and then used to personalize treatment decisions. Existing works for this task have mostly focused on model-based learners (i.e., learners that adapt specific machine-learning models). In contrast, model-agnostic learners -- so-called meta-learners -- are largely unexplored. In our paper, we propose several meta-learners that are model-agnostic and thus can be used in combination with arbitrary machine learning models (e.g., transformers) to estimate HTEs over time. Here, our focus is on learners that can be obtained via weighted pseudo-outcome regressions, which allows for efficient estimation by targeting the treatment effect directly. We then provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis that characterizes the different learners and that allows us to offer insights into when specific learners are preferable. Finally, we confirm our theoretical insights through numerical experiments. In sum, while meta-learners are already state-of-the-art for the static setting, we are the first to propose a comprehensive set of meta-learners for estimating HTEs in the time-varying setting.

Maresa Schröder, Dennis Frauen, Jonas Schweisthal et al.

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic finite-sample guarantees. Yet, existing methods for conformal prediction of causal effects are limited to binary/discrete treatments and make highly restrictive assumptions such as known propensity scores. In this work, we provide a novel conformal prediction method for potential outcomes of continuous treatments. We account for the additional uncertainty introduced through propensity estimation so that our conformal prediction intervals are valid even if the propensity score is unknown. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) We derive finite-sample prediction intervals for potential outcomes of continuous treatments. (2) We provide an algorithm for calculating the derived intervals. (3) We demonstrate the effectiveness of the conformal prediction intervals in experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose conformal prediction for continuous treatments when the propensity score is unknown and must be estimated from data.

Maresa Schröder, Dennis Frauen, Stefan Feuerriegel

Fairness for machine learning predictions is widely required in practice for legal, ethical, and societal reasons. Existing work typically focuses on settings without unobserved confounding, even though unobserved confounding can lead to severe violations of causal fairness and, thus, unfair predictions. In this work, we analyze the sensitivity of causal fairness to unobserved confounding. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we derive bounds for causal fairness metrics under different sources of unobserved confounding. This enables practitioners to examine the sensitivity of their machine learning models to unobserved confounding in fairness-critical applications. Second, we propose a novel neural framework for learning fair predictions, which allows us to offer worst-case guarantees of the extent to which causal fairness can be violated due to unobserved confounding. Third, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in a series of experiments, including a real-world case study about predicting prison sentences. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work to study causal fairness under unobserved confounding. To this end, our work is of direct practical value as a refutation strategy to ensure the fairness of predictions in high-stakes applications.

Yuchen Ma, Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen et al.

Fairness in predictions is of direct importance in practice due to legal, ethical, and societal reasons. This is often accomplished through counterfactual fairness, which ensures that the prediction for an individual is the same as that in a counterfactual world under a different sensitive attribute. However, achieving counterfactual fairness is challenging as counterfactuals are unobservable, and, because of that, existing baselines for counterfactual fairness do not have theoretical guarantees. In this paper, we propose a novel counterfactual fairness predictor for making predictions under counterfactual fairness. Here, we follow the standard counterfactual fairness setting and directly learn the counterfactual distribution of the descendants of the sensitive attribute via tailored neural networks, which we then use to enforce fair predictions through a novel counterfactual mediator regularization. Unique to our work is that we provide theoretical guarantees that our method is effective in ensuring the notion of counterfactual fairness. We further compare the performance across various datasets, where our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Dominique Geissler, Abdurahman Maarouf, Stefan Feuerriegel

Hate speech on social media threatens the mental and physical well-being of individuals and contributes to real-world violence. Resharing is an important driver behind the spread of hate speech on social media. Yet, little is known about who reshares hate speech and what their characteristics are. In this paper, we analyze the role of user characteristics in hate speech resharing across different types of hate speech (e.g., political hate). For this, we proceed as follows: First, we cluster hate speech posts using large language models to identify different types of hate speech. Then we model the effects of user attributes on users' probability to reshare hate speech using an explainable machine learning model. To do so, we apply debiasing to control for selection bias in our observational social media data and further control for the latent vulnerability of users to hate speech. We find that, all else equal, users with fewer followers, fewer friends, fewer posts, and older accounts share more hate speech. This shows that users with little social influence tend to share more hate speech. Further, we find substantial heterogeneity across different types of hate speech. For example, racist and misogynistic hate is spread mostly by users with little social influence. In contrast, political anti-Trump and anti-right-wing hate is reshared by users with larger social influence. Overall, understanding the factors that drive users to share hate speech is crucial for detecting individuals at risk of engaging in harmful behavior and for designing effective mitigation strategies.

Johannes Rausch, Gentiana Rashiti, Maxim Gusev et al.

Information in industry, research, and the public sector is widely stored as rendered documents (e.g., PDF files, scans). Hence, to enable downstream tasks, systems are needed that map rendered documents onto a structured hierarchical format. However, existing systems for this task are limited by heuristics and are not end-to-end trainable. In this work, we introduce the Document Structure Generator (DSG), a novel system for document parsing that is fully end-to-end trainable. DSG combines a deep neural network for parsing (i) entities in documents (e.g., figures, text blocks, headers, etc.) and (ii) relations that capture the sequence and nested structure between entities. Unlike existing systems that rely on heuristics, our DSG is trained end-to-end, making it effective and flexible for real-world applications. We further contribute a new, large-scale dataset called E-Periodica comprising real-world magazines with complex document structures for evaluation. Our results demonstrate that our DSG outperforms commercial OCR tools and, on top of that, achieves state-of-the-art performance. To the best of our knowledge, our DSG system is the first end-to-end trainable system for hierarchical document parsing.

Yilmazcan Ozyurt, Stefan Feuerriegel, Ce Zhang

Document-level relation extraction aims at inferring structured human knowledge from textual documents. State-of-the-art methods for this task use pre-trained language models (LMs) via fine-tuning, yet fine-tuning is computationally expensive and cannot adapt to new relation types or new LMs. As a remedy, we leverage the generalization capabilities of pre-trained LMs and present a novel framework for document-level in-context few-shot relation extraction. Our framework has three strengths: it eliminates the need (1) for named entity recognition and (2) for human annotations of documents, and (3) it can be updated to new LMs without re-training. We evaluate our framework using DocRED, the largest publicly available dataset for document-level relation extraction, and demonstrate that our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance. We further show that our framework actually performs much better than the original labels from the development set of DocRED. Finally, we conduct an extensive benchmark demonstrating the effectiveness of our framework, achieving state-of-the-art results across six relation extraction datasets and outperforming more than 30 baseline methods. Unlike our framework, the baseline methods have large computational overhead (e.g., from fine-tuning). To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to reformulate the document-level relation extraction task as a tailored in-context few-shot learning paradigm.

Stefan Feuerriegel, Dennis Frauen, Valentyn Melnychuk et al.

Causal machine learning (ML) offers flexible, data-driven methods for predicting treatment outcomes including efficacy and toxicity, thereby supporting the assessment and safety of drugs. A key benefit of causal ML is that it allows for estimating individualized treatment effects, so that clinical decision-making can be personalized to individual patient profiles. Causal ML can be used in combination with both clinical trial data and real-world data, such as clinical registries and electronic health records, but caution is needed to avoid biased or incorrect predictions. In this Perspective, we discuss the benefits of causal ML (relative to traditional statistical or ML approaches) and outline the key components and steps. Finally, we provide recommendations for the reliable use of causal ML and effective translation into the clinic.

Yuchen Ma, Valentyn Melnychuk, Jonas Schweisthal et al.

Predicting potential outcomes of interventions from observational data is crucial for decision-making in medicine, but the task is challenging due to the fundamental problem of causal inference. Existing methods are largely limited to point estimates of potential outcomes with no uncertain quantification; thus, the full information about the distributions of potential outcomes is typically ignored. In this paper, we propose a novel causal diffusion model called DiffPO, which is carefully designed for reliable inferences in medicine by learning the distribution of potential outcomes. In our DiffPO, we leverage a tailored conditional denoising diffusion model to learn complex distributions, where we address the selection bias through a novel orthogonal diffusion loss. Another strength of our DiffPO method is that it is highly flexible (e.g., it can also be used to estimate different causal quantities such as CATE). Across a wide range of experiments, we show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Milan Kuzmanovic, Dennis Frauen, Tobias Hatt et al.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations provide a blueprint of a better future by 'leaving no one behind', and, to achieve the SDGs by 2030, poor countries require immense volumes of development aid. In this paper, we develop a causal machine learning framework for predicting heterogeneous treatment effects of aid disbursements to inform effective aid allocation. Specifically, our framework comprises three components: (i) a balancing autoencoder that uses representation learning to embed high-dimensional country characteristics while addressing treatment selection bias; (ii) a counterfactual generator to compute counterfactual outcomes for varying aid volumes to address small sample-size settings; and (iii) an inference model that is used to predict heterogeneous treatment-response curves. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework using data with official development aid earmarked to end HIV/AIDS in 105 countries, amounting to more than USD 5.2 billion. For this, we first show that our framework successfully computes heterogeneous treatment-response curves using semi-synthetic data. Then, we demonstrate our framework using real-world HIV data. Our framework points to large opportunities for a more effective aid allocation, suggesting that the total number of new HIV infections could be reduced by up to 3.3% (~50,000 cases) compared to the current allocation practice.

Yuchen Ma, Dennis Frauen, Emil Javurek et al.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have recently been proposed as a promising way to train tabular foundation models. PFNs are transformers that are pre-trained on synthetic data generated from a prespecified prior distribution and that enable Bayesian inference through in-context learning. In this paper, we introduce CausalFM, a comprehensive framework for training PFN-based foundation models in various causal inference settings. First, we formalize the construction of Bayesian priors for causal inference based on structural causal models (SCMs) in a principled way and derive necessary criteria for the validity of such priors. Building on this, we propose a novel family of prior distributions using causality-inspired Bayesian neural networks that enable CausalFM to perform Bayesian causal inference in various settings, including for back-door, front-door, and instrumental variable adjustment. Finally, we instantiate CausalFM and explicitly train models to perform in-context learning in these settings. We show that CausalFM achieves competitive in-context learning performance even when compared to baselines that are specifically trained for the task at hand. In sum, our framework can be used as a general recipe to train foundation models for various causal inference settings. In contrast to the current state-of-the-art in causal inference, CausalFM offers a novel paradigm with the potential to fundamentally change how practitioners perform causal inference in medicine, economics, and other disciplines.

Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen, Jonas Schweisthal et al.

End-to-end representation learning has become a powerful tool for estimating causal quantities from high-dimensional observational data, but its efficiency remained unclear. Here, we face a central tension: End-to-end representation learning methods often work well in practice but lack asymptotic optimality in the form of the quasi-oracle efficiency. In contrast, two-stage Neyman-orthogonal learners provide such a theoretical optimality property but do not explicitly benefit from the strengths of representation learning. In this work, we step back and ask two research questions: (1) When do representations strengthen existing Neyman-orthogonal learners? and (2) Can a balancing constraint - commonly proposed technique in the representation learning literature - provide improvements to Neyman-orthogonality? We address these two questions through our theoretical and empirical analysis, where we introduce a unifying framework that connects representation learning with Neyman-orthogonal learners (namely, OR-learners). In particular, we show that, under the low-dimensional manifold hypothesis, the OR-learners can strictly improve the estimation error of the standard Neyman-orthogonal learners. At the same time, we find that the balancing constraint requires an additional inductive bias and cannot generally compensate for the lack of Neyman-orthogonality of the end-to-end approaches. Building on these insights, we offer guidelines for how users can effectively combine representation learning with the classical Neyman-orthogonal learners to achieve both practical performance and theoretical guarantees.

Yuxin Wang, Maresa Schröder, Dennis Frauen et al.

Constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the average treatment effect (ATE) from patient records is crucial to assess the effectiveness and safety of drugs. However, patient records typically come from different hospitals, thus raising the question of how multiple observational datasets can be effectively combined for this purpose. In our paper, we propose a new method that estimates the ATE from multiple observational datasets and provides valid CIs. Our method makes little assumptions about the observational datasets and is thus widely applicable in medical practice. The key idea of our method is that we leverage prediction-powered inferences and thereby essentially `shrink' the CIs so that we offer more precise uncertainty quantification as compared to naïve approaches. We further prove the unbiasedness of our method and the validity of our CIs. We confirm our theoretical results through various numerical experiments. Finally, we provide an extension of our method for constructing CIs from combinations of experimental and observational datasets.

Valentyn Melnychuk, Stefan Feuerriegel, Mihaela van der Schaar

Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal quantities, such as the conditional average treatment effect, but also understanding the randomness of the treatment effect as a random variable. This randomness is referred to as aleatoric uncertainty and is necessary for understanding the probability of benefit from treatment or quantiles of the treatment effect. Yet, the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect has received surprisingly little attention in the causal machine learning community. To fill this gap, we aim to quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect at the covariate-conditional level, namely, the conditional distribution of the treatment effect (CDTE). Unlike average causal quantities, the CDTE is not point identifiable without strong additional assumptions. As a remedy, we employ partial identification to obtain sharp bounds on the CDTE and thereby quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect. We then develop a novel, orthogonal learner for the bounds on the CDTE, which we call AU-learner. We further show that our AU-learner has several strengths in that it satisfies Neyman-orthogonality and, thus, quasi-oracle efficiency. Finally, we propose a fully-parametric deep learning instantiation of our AU-learner.

Yuchen Ma, Jonas Schweisthal, Hengrui Zhang et al.

In medicine, treatments often influence multiple, interdependent outcomes, such as primary endpoints, complications, adverse events, or other secondary endpoints. Hence, to make optimal treatment decisions, clinicians are interested in learning the distribution of multi-dimensional treatment outcomes. However, the vast majority of machine learning methods for predicting treatment effects focus on single-outcome settings, despite the fact that medical data often include multiple, interdependent outcomes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel diffusion-based method called DIME to learn the joint distribution of multiple outcomes of medical treatments. We addresses three challenges relevant in medical practice: (i)it is tailored to learn the joint interventional distribution of multiple medical outcomes, which enables reliable decision-making with uncertainty quantification rather than relying solely on point estimates; (ii)it explicitly captures the dependence structure between outcomes; (iii)it can handle outcomes of mixed type, including binary, categorical, and continuous variables. In DIME, we take into account the fundamental problem of causal inference through causal masking. For training, our method decomposes the joint distribution into a series of conditional distributions with a customized conditional masking to account for the dependence structure across outcomes. For inference, our method auto-regressively generates predictions. This allows our method to move beyond point estimates of causal quantities and thus learn the joint interventional distribution. To the best of our knowledge, DIME is the first neural method tailored to learn the joint, multi-outcome distribution of medical treatments. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our method effectively learns the joint distribution and captures shared information among multiple outcomes.

Dennis Frauen, Maresa Schröder, Konstantin Hess et al.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is crucial for personalized decision-making. However, this task is challenging in survival analysis, which includes time-to-event data with censored outcomes (e.g., due to study dropout). In this paper, we propose a toolbox of novel orthogonal survival learners to estimate HTEs from time-to-event data under censoring. Our learners have three main advantages: (i) we show that learners from our toolbox are guaranteed to be orthogonal and thus come with favorable theoretical properties; (ii) our toolbox allows for incorporating a custom weighting function, which can lead to robustness against different types of low overlap, and (iii) our learners are model-agnostic (i.e., they can be combined with arbitrary machine learning models). We instantiate the learners from our toolbox using several weighting functions and, as a result, propose various neural orthogonal survival learners. Some of these coincide with existing survival learners (including survival versions of the DR- and R-learner), while others are novel and further robust w.r.t. low overlap regimes specific to the survival setting (i.e., survival overlap and censoring overlap). We then empirically verify the effectiveness of our learners for HTE estimation in different low-overlap regimes through numerical experiments. In sum, we provide practitioners with a large toolbox of learners that can be used for randomized and observational studies with censored time-to-event data.

Maresa Schröder, Valentyn Melnychuk, Stefan Feuerriegel

Patient data is widely used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects and thus understand the effectiveness and safety of drugs. Yet, patient data includes highly sensitive information that must be kept private. In this work, we aim to estimate the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data under differential privacy. Specifically, we present DP-CATE, a novel framework for CATE estimation that is Neyman-orthogonal and further ensures differential privacy of the estimates. Our framework is highly general: it applies to any two-stage CATE meta-learner with a Neyman-orthogonal loss function, and any machine learning model can be used for nuisance estimation. We further provide an extension of our DP-CATE, where we employ RKHS regression to release the complete CATE function while ensuring differential privacy. We demonstrate our DP-CATE across various experiments using synthetic and real-world datasets. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to provide a framework for CATE estimation that is Neyman-orthogonal and differentially private.

David Martens, Galit Shmueli, Theodoros Evgeniou et al.

Understanding the decisions made and actions taken by increasingly complex AI system remains a key challenge. This has led to an expanding field of research in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), highlighting the potential of explanations to enhance trust, support adoption, and meet regulatory standards. However, the question of what constitutes a "good" explanation is dependent on the goals, stakeholders, and context. At a high level, psychological insights such as the concept of mental model alignment can offer guidance, but success in practice is challenging due to social and technical factors. As a result of this ill-defined nature of the problem, explanations can be of poor quality (e.g. unfaithful, irrelevant, or incoherent), potentially leading to substantial risks. Instead of fostering trust and safety, poorly designed explanations can actually cause harm, including wrong decisions, privacy violations, manipulation, and even reduced AI adoption. Therefore, we caution stakeholders to beware of explanations of AI: while they can be vital, they are not automatically a remedy for transparency or responsible AI adoption, and their misuse or limitations can exacerbate harm. Attention to these caveats can help guide future research to improve the quality and impact of AI explanations.

Harry Amad, Zhaozhi Qian, Dennis Frauen et al.

Causal inference is essential for developing and evaluating medical interventions, yet real-world medical datasets are often difficult to access due to regulatory barriers. This makes synthetic data a potentially valuable asset that enables these medical analyses, along with the development of new inference methods themselves. Generative models can produce synthetic data that closely approximate real data distributions, yet existing methods do not consider the unique challenges that downstream causal inference tasks, and specifically those focused on treatments, pose. We establish a set of desiderata that synthetic data containing treatments should satisfy to maximise downstream utility: preservation of (i) the covariate distribution, (ii) the treatment assignment mechanism, and (iii) the outcome generation mechanism. Based on these desiderata, we propose a set of evaluation metrics to assess such synthetic data. Finally, we present STEAM: a novel method for generating Synthetic data for Treatment Effect Analysis in Medicine that mimics the data-generating process of data containing treatments and optimises for our desiderata. We empirically demonstrate that STEAM achieves state-of-the-art performance across our metrics as compared to existing generative models, particularly as the complexity of the true data-generating process increases.

Jonas Schweisthal, Dennis Frauen, Maresa Schröder et al.

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is violated. In this work, we leverage arbitrary (potentially high-dimensional) instruments to estimate bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). Our contributions are three-fold: (1) We propose a novel approach for partial identification through a mapping of instruments to a discrete representation space so that we yield valid bounds on the CATE. This is crucial for reliable decision-making in real-world applications. (2) We derive a two-step procedure that learns tight bounds using a tailored neural partitioning of the latent instrument space. As a result, we avoid instability issues due to numerical approximations or adversarial training. Furthermore, our procedure aims to reduce the estimation variance in finite-sample settings to yield more reliable estimates. (3) We show theoretically that our procedure obtains valid bounds while reducing estimation variance. We further perform extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness across various settings. Overall, our procedure offers a novel path for practitioners to make use of potentially high-dimensional instruments (e.g., as in Mendelian randomization).

Konstantin Hess, Dennis Frauen, Mihaela van der Schaar et al.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in time-varying settings is particularly challenging, as the probability of observing certain treatment sequences decreases exponentially with longer prediction horizons. Thus, the observed data contain little support for many plausible treatment sequences, which creates severe overlap problems. Existing meta-learners for the time-varying setting typically assume adequate treatment overlap, and thus suffer from exploding estimation variance when the overlap is low. To address this problem, we introduce a novel overlap-weighted orthogonal (WO) meta-learner for estimating HTEs that targets regions in the observed data with high probability of receiving the interventional treatment sequences. This offers a fully data-driven approach through which our WO-learner can counteract instabilities as in existing meta-learners and thus obtain more reliable HTE estimates. Methodologically, we develop a novel Neyman-orthogonal population risk function that minimizes the overlap-weighted oracle risk. We show that our WO-learner has the favorable property of Neyman-orthogonality, meaning that it is robust against misspecification in the nuisance functions. Further, our WO-learner is fully model-agnostic and can be applied to any machine learning model. Through extensive experiments with both transformer and LSTM backbones, we demonstrate the benefits of our novel WO-learner.

Yuxin Wang, Dennis Frauen, Jonas Schweisthal et al.

Dropout is common in clinical studies, with up to half of patients leaving early due to side effects or other reasons. When dropout is informative (i.e., dependent on survival time), it introduces censoring bias, because of which treatment effect estimates are also biased. In this paper, we propose an assumption-lean framework to assess the robustness of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimates in survival analysis when facing censoring bias. Unlike existing works that rely on strong assumptions, such as non-informative censoring, to obtain point estimation, we use partial identification to derive informative bounds on the CATE. Thereby, our framework helps to identify patient subgroups where treatment is effective despite informative censoring. We further develop a novel meta-learner that estimates the bounds using arbitrary machine learning models and with favorable theoretical properties, including double robustness and quasi-oracle efficiency. We demonstrate the practical value of our meta-learner through numerical experiments and in an application to a cancer drug trial. Together, our framework offers a practical tool for assessing the robustness of estimated treatment effects in the presence of censoring and thus promotes the reliable use of survival data for evidence generation in medicine and epidemiology.

Emil Javurek, Valentyn Melnychuk, Jonas Schweisthal et al.

Predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making is central for optimizing therapeutic decisions in personalized medicine (e.g., which dosing sequence to give to a cancer patient). However, predicting potential outcomes over long horizons is notoriously difficult. Existing methods that break the curse of the horizon typically lack strong theoretical guarantees such as orthogonality and quasi-oracle efficiency. In this paper, we revisit the problem of predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making (i.e., estimating Q-functions in Markov decision processes with observational data) through a causal inference lens. In particular, we develop a comprehensive theoretical foundation for meta-learners in this setting with a focus on beneficial theoretical properties. As a result, we yield a novel meta-learner called DRQ-learner and establish that it is: (1) doubly robust (i.e., valid inference under the misspecification of one of the nuisances), (2) Neyman-orthogonal (i.e., insensitive to first-order estimation errors in the nuisance functions), and (3) achieves quasi-oracle efficiency (i.e., behaves asymptotically as if the ground-truth nuisance functions were known). Our DRQ-learner is applicable to settings with both discrete and continuous state spaces. Further, our DRQ-learner is flexible and can be used together with arbitrary machine learning models (e.g., neural networks). We validate our theoretical results through numerical experiments, thereby showing that our meta-learner outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen, Jonas Schweisthal et al.

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is widely used in personalized medicine to inform therapeutic decisions. However, state-of-the-art methods for CATE estimation (so-called meta-learners) often perform poorly in the presence of low overlap. In this work, we introduce a new approach to tackle this issue and improve the performance of existing meta-learners in the low-overlap regions. Specifically, we introduce Overlap-Adaptive Regularization (OAR) that regularizes target models proportionally to overlap weights so that, informally, the regularization is higher in regions with low overlap. To the best of our knowledge, our OAR is the first approach to leverage overlap weights in the regularization terms of the meta-learners. Our OAR approach is flexible and works with any existing CATE meta-learner: we demonstrate how OAR can be applied to both parametric and non-parametric second-stage models. Furthermore, we propose debiased versions of our OAR that preserve the Neyman-orthogonality of existing meta-learners and thus ensure more robust inference. Through a series of (semi-)synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that our OAR significantly improves CATE estimation in low-overlap settings in comparison to constant regularization.

Valentyn Melnychuk, Stefan Feuerriegel

Various deep generative models have been proposed to estimate potential outcomes distributions from observational data. However, none of them have the favorable theoretical property of general Neyman-orthogonality and, associated with it, quasi-oracle efficiency and double robustness. In this paper, we introduce a general suite of generative Neyman-orthogonal (doubly-robust) learners that estimate the conditional distributions of potential outcomes. Our proposed GDR-learners are flexible and can be instantiated with many state-of-the-art deep generative models. In particular, we develop GDR-learners based on (a) conditional normalizing flows (which we call GDR-CNFs), (b) conditional generative adversarial networks (GDR-CGANs), (c) conditional variational autoencoders (GDR-CVAEs), and (d) conditional diffusion models (GDR-CDMs). Unlike the existing methods, our GDR-learners possess the properties of quasi-oracle efficiency and rate double robustness, and are thus asymptotically optimal. In a series of (semi-)synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that our GDR-learners are very effective and outperform the existing methods in estimating the conditional distributions of potential outcomes.