Numerical Analysis of National Travel Data to Assess the Impact of UK Fleet Electrification
For UK policymakers and industry strategists, this provides a data-driven approach to assess fleet electrification impact, though it is an incremental application of existing methods to a new dataset.
The paper proposes a method to generate electricity demand profiles for an entirely electric UK fleet using conventional vehicle survey data, predicting required demand and battery sizing. The results inform national planning and further research on electric vehicle impact.
Accurately predicting the future power demand of electric vehicles is important for developing policy and industrial strategy. Here we propose a method to create a representative set of electricity demand profiles using survey data from conventional vehicles. This is achieved by developing a model which maps journey and vehicle parameters to an energy consumption, and applying it individually to the entire data set. As a case study the National Travel Survey was used to create a set of profiles representing an entirely electric UK fleet of vehicles. This allowed prediction of the required electricity demand and sizing of the necessary vehicle batteries. Also, by inferring location information from the data, the effectiveness of various charging strategies was assessed. These results will be useful in both National planning, and as the inputs to further research on the impact of electric vehicles.