Development of Statewide AADT Estimation Model from Short-Term Counts: A Comparative Study for South Carolina
This research provides a more reliable method for the South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT) to estimate AADT on secondary highways, where permanent count stations are scarce, improving traffic engineering analysis.
This paper developed AADT estimation models using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict Annual Average Daily Traffic from short-term counts for various roadway functional classes in South Carolina. The SVR-based model outperformed other methods, achieving a minimum RMSE of 0.22 and MAPE of 11.3% for the interstate/expressway functional class.
Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is an important parameter used in traffic engineering analysis. Departments of Transportation (DOTs) continually collect traffic count using both permanent count stations (i.e., Automatic Traffic Recorders or ATRs) and temporary short-term count stations. In South Carolina, 87% of the ATRs are located on interstates and arterial highways. For most secondary highways (i.e., collectors and local roads), AADT is estimated based on short-term counts. This paper develops AADT estimation models for different roadway functional classes with two machine learning techniques: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The models aim to predict AADT from short-term counts. The results are first compared against each other to identify the best model. Then, the results of the best model are compared against a regression method and factor-based method. The comparison reveals the superiority of SVR for AADT estimation for different roadway functional classes over all other methods. Among all developed models for different functional roadway classes, the SVR-based model shows a minimum root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.22 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.3% for the interstate/expressway functional class. This model also shows a higher R-squared value compared to the traditional factor-based model and regression model. SVR models are validated for each roadway functional class using the 2016 ATR data and selected short-term count data collected by the South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT). The validation results show that the SVR-based AADT estimation models can be used by the SCDOT as a reliable option to predict AADT from the short-term counts.