FairST: Equitable Spatial and Temporal Demand Prediction for New Mobility Systems
This addresses fairness issues in urban mobility prediction for transportation planners and operators, representing a novel integration of fairness into spatiotemporal modeling rather than an incremental improvement.
The paper tackles the problem of socioeconomic inequities in new mobility systems by developing FairST, a fairness-aware spatiotemporal demand prediction model that reduces fairness gaps by over 80% while achieving better accuracy than state-of-the-art fairness-oblivious methods.
Emerging transportation modes, including car-sharing, bike-sharing, and ride-hailing, are transforming urban mobility but have been shown to reinforce socioeconomic inequities. Spatiotemporal demand prediction models for these new mobility regimes must therefore consider fairness as a first-class design requirement. We present FairST, a fairness-aware model for predicting demand for new mobility systems. Our approach utilizes 1D, 2D and 3D convolutions to integrate various urban features and learn the spatial-temporal dynamics of a mobility system, but we include fairness metrics as a form of regularization to make the predictions more equitable across demographic groups. We propose two novel spatiotemporal fairness metrics, a region-based fairness gap (RFG) and an individual-based fairness gap (IFG). Both quantify equity in a spatiotemporal context, but vary by whether demographics are labeled at the region level (RFG) or whether population distribution information is available (IFG). Experimental results on real bike share and ride share datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model: FairST not only reduces the fairness gap by more than 80%, but can surprisingly achieve better accuracy than state-of-the-art yet fairness-oblivious methods including LSTMs, ConvLSTMs, and 3D CNN.