Stochastic trajectory prediction with social graph network
This work improves trajectory prediction for autonomous systems in crowded environments, representing an incremental advance over existing methods.
The paper tackles pedestrian trajectory prediction by addressing social behavior modeling and future motion uncertainty, proposing a directed social graph network and temporal stochastic method that achieves state-of-the-art performance on two public datasets, particularly in crowded scenes.
Pedestrian trajectory prediction is a challenging task because of the complexity of real-world human social behaviors and uncertainty of the future motion. For the first issue, existing methods adopt fully connected topology for modeling the social behaviors, while ignoring non-symmetric pairwise relationships. To effectively capture social behaviors of relevant pedestrians, we utilize a directed social graph which is dynamically constructed on timely location and speed direction. Based on the social graph, we further propose a network to collect social effects and accumulate with individual representation, in order to generate destination-oriented and social-aware representations. For the second issue, instead of modeling the uncertainty of the entire future as a whole, we utilize a temporal stochastic method for sequentially learning a prior model of uncertainty during social interactions. The prediction on the next step is then generated by sampling on the prior model and progressively decoding with a hierarchical LSTMs. Experimental results on two public datasets show the effectiveness of our method, especially when predicting trajectories in very crowded scenes.