On Deep Instrumental Variables Estimate
This provides a theoretical foundation for deep learning methods in econometrics, addressing a fundamental issue for researchers and practitioners dealing with omitted variables or measurement errors.
The paper tackles the endogeneity problem in empirical applications by theoretically analyzing a deep neural network-based instrumental variables estimator, showing that it achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound and mitigates the curse of dimensionality with optimal convergence rates.
The endogeneity issue is fundamentally important as many empirical applications may suffer from the omission of explanatory variables, measurement error, or simultaneous causality. Recently, \cite{hllt17} propose a "Deep Instrumental Variable (IV)" framework based on deep neural networks to address endogeneity, demonstrating superior performances than existing approaches. The aim of this paper is to theoretically understand the empirical success of the Deep IV. Specifically, we consider a two-stage estimator using deep neural networks in the linear instrumental variables model. By imposing a latent structural assumption on the reduced form equation between endogenous variables and instrumental variables, the first-stage estimator can automatically capture this latent structure and converge to the optimal instruments at the minimax optimal rate, which is free of the dimension of instrumental variables and thus mitigates the curse of dimensionality. Additionally, in comparison with classical methods, due to the faster convergence rate of the first-stage estimator, the second-stage estimator has {a smaller (second order) estimation error} and requires a weaker condition on the smoothness of the optimal instruments. Given that the depth and width of the employed deep neural network are well chosen, we further show that the second-stage estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. Simulation studies on synthetic data and application to automobile market data confirm our theory.