A Global Stochastic Optimization Particle Filter Algorithm
This addresses optimization challenges in statistical estimation for researchers, though it appears incremental as it builds on existing stochastic gradient and particle filter methods.
The paper tackles the problem of optimizing multi-modal or saddle-point objective functions in expected log-likelihood maximization by introducing G-PFSO, an online algorithm that uses a particle filter and learning rate adjustments to concentrate on the global maximizer, achieving optimal convergence rates in numerical experiments.
We introduce a new online algorithm for expected log-likelihood maximization in situations where the objective function is multi-modal and/or has saddle points, that we term G-PFSO. The key element underpinning G-PFSO is a probability distribution which (a) is shown to concentrate on the target parameter value as the sample size increases and (b) can be efficiently estimated by means of a standard particle filter algorithm. This distribution depends on a learning rate, where the faster the learning rate the quicker it concentrates on the desired element of the search space, but the less likely G-PFSO is to escape from a local optimum of the objective function. In order to achieve a fast convergence rate with a slow learning rate, G-PFSO exploits the acceleration property of averaging, well-known in the stochastic gradient literature. Considering several challenging estimation problems, the numerical experiments show that, with high probability, G-PFSO successfully finds the highest mode of the objective function and converges to its global maximizer at the optimal rate. While the focus of this work is expected log-likelihood maximization, the proposed methodology and its theory apply more generally for optimizing a function defined through an expectation.