Online Multi-horizon Transaction Metric Estimation with Multi-modal Learning in Payment Networks
This work addresses system monitoring for payment processing companies, but it is incremental as it builds on existing multivariate time series prediction methods with domain-specific adaptations.
The paper tackled the problem of predicting transaction metrics for entities in payment networks by addressing challenges like concept drift and multi-modality, proposing a model with five components and a hybrid training scheme, and demonstrating its potential benefit through a prototype system for system monitoring.
Predicting metrics associated with entities' transnational behavior within payment processing networks is essential for system monitoring. Multivariate time series, aggregated from the past transaction history, can provide valuable insights for such prediction. The general multivariate time series prediction problem has been well studied and applied across several domains, including manufacturing, medical, and entomology. However, new domain-related challenges associated with the data such as concept drift and multi-modality have surfaced in addition to the real-time requirements of handling the payment transaction data at scale. In this work, we study the problem of multivariate time series prediction for estimating transaction metrics associated with entities in the payment transaction database. We propose a model with five unique components to estimate the transaction metrics from multi-modality data. Four of these components capture interaction, temporal, scale, and shape perspectives, and the fifth component fuses these perspectives together. We also propose a hybrid offline/online training scheme to address concept drift in the data and fulfill the real-time requirements. Combining the estimation model with a graphical user interface, the prototype transaction metric estimation system has demonstrated its potential benefit as a tool for improving a payment processing company's system monitoring capability.