Social Interpretable Tree for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction
This addresses the need for interpretable and flexible multi-modal trajectory prediction in vision applications like autonomous systems, though it is incremental as it builds on prior tree-based and optimization methods.
The paper tackles the problem of predicting multiple socially-acceptable future trajectories for pedestrians by proposing a tree-based method called Social Interpretable Tree (SIT), which matches or exceeds state-of-the-art performance on ETH-UCY and Stanford Drone datasets, with the raw tree outperforming many deep learning approaches.
Understanding the multiple socially-acceptable future behaviors is an essential task for many vision applications. In this paper, we propose a tree-based method, termed as Social Interpretable Tree (SIT), to address this multi-modal prediction task, where a hand-crafted tree is built depending on the prior information of observed trajectory to model multiple future trajectories. Specifically, a path in the tree from the root to leaf represents an individual possible future trajectory. SIT employs a coarse-to-fine optimization strategy, in which the tree is first built by high-order velocity to balance the complexity and coverage of the tree and then optimized greedily to encourage multimodality. Finally, a teacher-forcing refining operation is used to predict the final fine trajectory. Compared with prior methods which leverage implicit latent variables to represent possible future trajectories, the path in the tree can explicitly explain the rough moving behaviors (e.g., go straight and then turn right), and thus provides better interpretability. Despite the hand-crafted tree, the experimental results on ETH-UCY and Stanford Drone datasets demonstrate that our method is capable of matching or exceeding the performance of state-of-the-art methods. Interestingly, the experiments show that the raw built tree without training outperforms many prior deep neural network based approaches. Meanwhile, our method presents sufficient flexibility in long-term prediction and different best-of-$K$ predictions.