Identifying Drift, Diffusion, and Causal Structure from Temporal Snapshots
This addresses a challenge in modeling dynamic processes like gene regulatory networks, but it is incremental as it builds on existing theory and methods for SDEs.
The paper tackles the problem of learning stochastic differential equations (SDEs) from temporal marginals when individual trajectories are unobservable, proving identifiability conditions and introducing an algorithm (APPEX) that estimates drift, diffusion, and causal structure, with demonstrated effectiveness on simulated data.
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a fundamental tool for modelling dynamic processes, including gene regulatory networks (GRNs), contaminant transport, financial markets, and image generation. However, learning the underlying SDE from data is a challenging task, especially if individual trajectories are not observable. Motivated by burgeoning research in single-cell datasets, we present the first comprehensive approach for jointly identifying the drift and diffusion of an SDE from its temporal marginals. Assuming linear drift and additive diffusion, we prove that these parameters are identifiable from marginals if and only if the initial distribution lacks any generalized rotational symmetries. We further prove that the causal graph of any SDE with additive diffusion can be recovered from the SDE parameters. To complement this theory, we adapt entropy-regularized optimal transport to handle anisotropic diffusion, and introduce APPEX (Alternating Projection Parameter Estimation from $X_0$), an iterative algorithm designed to estimate the drift, diffusion, and causal graph of an additive noise SDE, solely from temporal marginals. We show that APPEX iteratively decreases Kullback-Leibler divergence to the true solution, and demonstrate its effectiveness on simulated data from linear additive noise SDEs.