EUR/USD Exchange Rate Forecasting incorporating Text Mining Based on Pre-trained Language Models and Deep Learning Methods
This addresses exchange rate prediction for financial analysts and traders, but it is incremental as it combines existing methods (LSTM, PSO, RoBERTa) in a new application.
This study tackled EUR/USD exchange rate forecasting by integrating deep learning, text mining, and optimization, resulting in the PSO-LSTM model outperforming traditional benchmarks like SVM and ARIMA with empirical evidence of superior performance.
This study introduces a novel approach for EUR/USD exchange rate forecasting that integrates deep learning, textual analysis, and particle swarm optimization (PSO). By incorporating online news and analysis texts as qualitative data, the proposed PSO-LSTM model demonstrates superior performance compared to traditional econometric and machine learning models. The research employs advanced text mining techniques, including sentiment analysis using the RoBERTa-Large model and topic modeling with LDA. Empirical findings underscore the significant advantage of incorporating textual data, with the PSO-LSTM model outperforming benchmark models such as SVM, SVR, ARIMA, and GARCH. Ablation experiments reveal the contribution of each textual data category to the overall forecasting performance. The study highlights the transformative potential of artificial intelligence in finance and paves the way for future research in real-time forecasting and the integration of alternative data sources.