Mini-Game Lifetime Value Prediction in WeChat
This addresses a critical challenge for advertisers in mobile gaming by enhancing ad targeting, but it appears incremental as it builds on existing methods for data scarcity and multi-task learning.
The paper tackles the problem of predicting lifetime value (LTV) for users in advertising, where data scarcity and task interdependencies hinder accuracy, by introducing the GRePO-LTV framework, which uses graph representation learning and Pareto optimization to improve predictions, though no concrete performance numbers are provided.
The LifeTime Value (LTV) prediction, which endeavors to forecast the cumulative purchase contribution of a user to a particular item, remains a vital challenge that advertisers are keen to resolve. A precise LTV prediction system enhances the alignment of user interests with meticulously designed advertisements, thereby generating substantial profits for advertisers. Nonetheless, this issue is complicated by the paucity of data typically observed in real-world advertising scenarios. The purchase rate among registered users is often as critically low as 0.1%, resulting in a dataset where the majority of users make only several purchases. Consequently, there is insufficient supervisory signal for effectively training the LTV prediction model. An additional challenge emerges from the interdependencies among tasks with high correlation. It is a common practice to estimate a user's contribution to a game over a specified temporal interval. Varying the lengths of these intervals corresponds to distinct predictive tasks, which are highly correlated. For instance, predictions over a 7-day period are heavily reliant on forecasts made over a 3-day period, where exceptional cases can adversely affect the accuracy of both tasks. In order to comprehensively address the aforementioned challenges, we introduce an innovative framework denoted as Graph-Represented Pareto-Optimal LifeTime Value prediction (GRePO-LTV). Graph representation learning is initially employed to address the issue of data scarcity. Subsequently, Pareto-Optimization is utilized to manage the interdependence of prediction tasks.