Measuring AI Diffusion: A Population-Normalized Metric for Tracking Global AI Usage
This provides a novel, real-time indicator for policymakers and researchers to track AI usage globally, though it is incremental as it builds on existing telemetry data with adjustments.
The paper tackled the challenge of measuring global AI diffusion by introducing AI User Share, a population-normalized metric that estimates the share of working-age populations using AI tools across 147 economies, revealing wide adoption variation with strong correlation to GDP and sharp increases after product launches like DeepSeek in 2025.
Measuring global AI diffusion remains challenging due to a lack of population-normalized, cross-country usage data. We introduce AI User Share, a novel indicator that estimates the share of each country's working-age population actively using AI tools. Built from anonymized Microsoft telemetry and adjusted for device access and mobile scaling, this metric spans 147 economies and provides consistent, real-time insight into global AI diffusion. We find wide variation in adoption, with a strong correlation between AI User Share and GDP. High uptake is concentrated in developed economies, though usage among internet-connected populations in lower-income countries reveals substantial latent demand. We also detect sharp increases in usage following major product launches, such as DeepSeek in early 2025. While the metric's reliance solely on Microsoft telemetry introduces potential biases related to this user base, it offers an important new lens into how AI is spreading globally. AI User Share enables timely benchmarking that can inform data-driven AI policy.