Statistical Guarantees for Reasoning Probes on Looped Boolean Circuits
This provides a theoretical foundation for reasoning efficiency in AI systems with limited access, though it is incremental as it builds on existing graph embedding and statistical methods.
The paper tackles the problem of statistical generalization for reasoning probes on looped Boolean circuits under partial observability, showing that the worst-case generalization error achieves the optimal rate O(√(log(2/δ))/√N) with high probability, independent of graph size.
We study the statistical behaviour of reasoning probes in a stylized model of looped reasoning, given by Boolean circuits whose computational graph is a perfect $ν$-ary tree ($ν\ge 2$) and whose output is appended to the input and fed back iteratively for subsequent computation rounds. A reasoning probe has access to a sampled subset of internal computation nodes, possibly without covering the entire graph, and seeks to infer which $ν$-ary Boolean gate is executed at each queried node, representing uncertainty via a probability distribution over a fixed collection of $\mathtt{m}$ admissible $ν$-ary gates. This partial observability induces a generalization problem, which we analyze in a realizable, transductive setting. We show that, when the reasoning probe is parameterized by a graph convolutional network (GCN)-based hypothesis class and queries $N$ nodes, the worst-case generalization error attains the optimal rate $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\log(2/δ)}/\sqrt{N})$ with probability at least $1-δ$, for $δ\in (0,1)$. Our analysis combines snowflake metric embedding techniques with tools from statistical optimal transport. A key insight is that this optimal rate is achievable independently of graph size, owing to the existence of a low-distortion one-dimensional snowflake embedding of the induced graph metric. As a consequence, our results provide a sharp characterization of how structural properties of the computational graph govern the statistical efficiency of reasoning under partial access.