Predicting Tennis Serve directions with Machine Learning
This work provides insights into serve decision-making for professional tennis players and returners, potentially aiding strategic analysis.
This paper developed a machine learning method to predict the first serve directions of professional tennis players. The method achieved an average prediction accuracy of 49% for male players and 44% for female players.
Serves, especially first serves, are very important in professional tennis. Servers choose their serve directions strategically to maximize their winning chances while trying to be unpredictable. On the other hand, returners try to predict serve directions to make good returns. The mind game between servers and returners is an important part of decision-making in professional tennis matches. To help understand the players' serve decisions, we have developed a machine learning method for predicting professional tennis players' first serve directions. Through feature engineering, our method achieves an average prediction accuracy of around 49\% for male players and 44\% for female players. Our analysis provides some evidence that top professional players use a mixed-strategy model in serving decisions and that fatigue might be a factor in choosing serve directions. Our analysis also suggests that contextual information is perhaps more important for returners' anticipatory reactions than previously thought.