SIMar 20

Politicized Attention Shifts Amplify Polarization in the Information Ecosystem during California Wildfires

arXiv:2603.1953669.01 citationsh-index: 10
Predicted impact top 8% in SI · last 90 daysOriginality Synthesis-oriented
AI Analysis

This research addresses the problem of how polarization affects disaster communication for governments and the public, highlighting incremental insights into digital ecosystem dynamics.

The study analyzed over 1.3 million social media posts during California wildfires (2016-2025) and found that users discuss individual political officials more negatively than operational agencies, with this gap widening during extreme events, and that negativity concentrates in polarized communities, disproportionately shaping visible discourse.

Wildfires require governments to communicate under conditions of urgency, uncertainty, and intense public scrutiny, yet such communication now unfolds within a digitally mediated environment shaped by polarization and engagement-based amplification. We analyze over 1.3 million wildfire-related social media posts from California (2016-2025) to examine how institutional actors are evaluated within this landscape. Users' stance toward government is actor-specific: individual political officials are discussed more negatively than operational agencies across federal, state, and local levels, and this gap widens during extreme wildfire events. Moreover, interaction networks become increasingly modular over time, consolidating into polarized communities in which negativity concentrates within cohesive clusters. Engagement-weighted measures show that highly interactive negative content disproportionately shapes visible discourse, while crisis periods redirect attention from emergency agencies to high-profile political figures, reinforcing reputational divergence. These findings indicate that wildfire communication operates within a polarized, engagement-ranked ecosystem in which evaluative tone, network structure, and visibility dynamics jointly shape institutional perception. Effective disaster communication should therefore account for the structural conditions of contemporary digital public communities.

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