Marcello La Rosa

Zahra Dasht Bozorgi, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Increasing the success rate of a process, i.e. the percentage of cases that end in a positive outcome, is a recurrent process improvement goal. At runtime, there are often certain actions (a.k.a. treatments) that workers may execute to lift the probability that a case ends in a positive outcome. For example, in a loan origination process, a possible treatment is to issue multiple loan offers to increase the probability that the customer takes a loan. Each treatment has a cost. Thus, when defining policies for prescribing treatments to cases, managers need to consider the net gain of the treatments. Also, the effect of a treatment varies over time: treating a case earlier may be more effective than later in a case. This paper presents a prescriptive monitoring method that automates this decision-making task. The method combines causal inference and reinforcement learning to learn treatment policies that maximize the net gain. The method leverages a conformal prediction technique to speed up the convergence of the reinforcement learning mechanism by separating cases that are likely to end up in a positive or negative outcome, from uncertain cases. An evaluation on two real-life datasets shows that the proposed method outperforms a state-of-the-art baseline.

Daniel Reißner, Abel Armas-Cervantes, Marcello La Rosa

The importance of quality measures in process mining has increased. One of the key quality aspects, generalization, is concerned with measuring the degree of overfitting of a process model w.r.t. an event log, since the recorded behavior is just an example of the true behavior of the underlying business process. Existing generalization measures exhibit several shortcomings that severely hinder their applicability in practice. For example, they assume the event log fully fits the discovered process model, and cannot deal with large real-life event logs and complex process models. More significantly, current measures neglect generalizations for clear patterns that demand a certain construct in the model. For example, a repeating sequence in an event log should be generalized with a loop structure in the model. We address these shortcomings by proposing a framework of measures that generalize a set of patterns discovered from an event log with representative traces and check the corresponding control-flow structures in the process model via their trace alignment. We instantiate the framework with a generalization measure that uses tandem repeats to identify repetitive patterns that are compared to the loop structures and a concurrency oracle to identify concurrent patterns that are compared to the parallel structures of the process model. In an extensive qualitative and quantitative evaluation using 74 log-model pairs using against two baseline generalization measures, we show that the proposed generalization measure consistently ranks process models that fulfil the observed patterns with generalizing control-flow structures higher than those which do not, while the baseline measures disregard those patterns. Further, we show that our measure can be efficiently computed for datasets two orders of magnitude larger than the largest dataset the baseline generalization measures can handle.

Adriano Augusto, Raffaele Conforti, Marlon Dumas et al.

Process mining allows analysts to exploit logs of historical executions of business processes to extract insights regarding the actual performance of these processes. One of the most widely studied process mining operations is automated process discovery. An automated process discovery method takes as input an event log, and produces as output a business process model that captures the control-flow relations between tasks that are observed in or implied by the event log. Various automated process discovery methods have been proposed in the past two decades, striking different tradeoffs between scalability, accuracy and complexity of the resulting models. However, these methods have been evaluated in an ad-hoc manner, employing different datasets, experimental setups, evaluation measures and baselines, often leading to incomparable conclusions and sometimes unreproducible results due to the use of closed datasets. This article provides a systematic review and comparative evaluation of automated process discovery methods, using an open-source benchmark and covering twelve publicly-available real-life event logs, twelve proprietary real-life event logs, and nine quality metrics. The results highlight gaps and unexplored tradeoffs in the field, including the lack of scalability of some methods and a strong divergence in their performance with respect to the different quality metrics used.

Marlon Dumas, Fabiana Fournier, Lior Limonad et al.

AI-Augmented Business Process Management Systems (ABPMSs) are an emerging class of process-aware information systems, empowered by trustworthy AI technology. An ABPMS enhances the execution of business processes with the aim of making these processes more adaptable, proactive, explainable, and context-sensitive. This manifesto presents a vision for ABPMSs and discusses research challenges that need to be surmounted to realize this vision. To this end, we define the concept of ABPMS, we outline the lifecycle of processes within an ABPMS, we discuss core characteristics of an ABPMS, and we derive a set of challenges to realize systems with these characteristics.

Anna Kalenkova, Josep Carmona, Artem Polyvyanyy et al.

State-of-the-art process discovery methods construct free-choice process models from event logs. Consequently, the constructed models do not take into account indirect dependencies between events. Whenever the input behaviour is not free-choice, these methods fail to provide a precise model. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for enhancing free-choice process models by adding non-free-choice constructs discovered a-posteriori via region-based techniques. This allows us to benefit from the performance of existing process discovery methods and the accuracy of the employed fundamental synthesis techniques. We prove that the proposed approach preserves fitness with respect to the event log while improving the precision when indirect dependencies exist. The approach has been implemented and tested on both synthetic and real-life datasets. The results show its effectiveness in repairing models discovered from event logs.

Volodymyr Leno, Adriano Augusto, Marlon Dumas et al.

Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is a technology to automate routine work such as copying data across applications or filling in document templates using data from multiple applications. RPA tools allow organizations to automate a wide range of routines. However, identifying and scoping routines that can be automated using RPA tools is time consuming. Manual identification of candidate routines via interviews, walk-throughs, or job shadowing allow analysts to identify the most visible routines, but these methods are not suitable when it comes to identifying the long tail of routines in an organization. This article proposes an approach to discover automatable routines from logs of user interactions with IT systems and to synthesize executable specifications for such routines. The approach starts by discovering frequent routines at a control-flow level (candidate routines). It then determines which of these candidate routines are automatable and it synthetizes an executable specification for each such routine. Finally, it identifies semantically equivalent routines so as to produce a set of non-redundant automatable routines. The article reports on an evaluation of the approach using a combination of synthetic and real-life logs. The evaluation results show that the approach can discover automatable routines that are known to be present in a UI log, and that it identifies automatable routines that users recognize as such in real-life logs.

Zahra Dasht Bozorgi, Irene Teinemaa, Marlon Dumas et al.

Reducing cycle time is a recurrent concern in the field of business process management. Depending on the process, various interventions may be triggered to reduce the cycle time of a case, for example, using a faster shipping service in an order-to-delivery process or giving a phone call to a customer to obtain missing information rather than waiting passively. Each of these interventions comes with a cost. This paper tackles the problem of determining if and when to trigger a time-reducing intervention in a way that maximizes the total net gain. The paper proposes a prescriptive process monitoring method that uses orthogonal random forest models to estimate the causal effect of triggering a time-reducing intervention for each ongoing case of a process. Based on this causal effect estimate, the method triggers interventions according to a user-defined policy. The method is evaluated on two real-life logs.

Adriano Augusto, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa

Enterprise information systems allow companies to maintain detailed records of their business process executions. These records can be extracted in the form of event logs, which capture the execution of activities across multiple instances of a business process. Event logs may be used to analyze business processes at a fine level of detail using process mining techniques. Among other things, process mining techniques allow us to discover a process model from an event log -- an operation known as automated process discovery. Despite a rich body of research in the field, existing automated process discovery techniques do not fully capture the concurrency inherent in a business process. Specifically, the bulk of these techniques treat two activities A and B as concurrent if sometimes A completes before B and other times B completes before A. Typically though, activities in a business process are executed in a true concurrency setting, meaning that two or more activity executions overlap temporally. This paper addresses this gap by presenting a refined version of an automated process discovery technique, namely Split Miner, that discovers true concurrency relations from event logs containing start and end timestamps for each activity. The proposed technique is also able to differentiate between exclusive and inclusive choices. We evaluate the proposed technique relative to existing baselines using 11 real-life logs drawn from different industries.

Farbod Taymouri, Marcello La Rosa, Sarah M. Erfani

Event suffix and remaining time prediction are sequence to sequence learning tasks. They have wide applications in different areas such as economics, digital health, business process management and IT infrastructure monitoring. Timestamped event sequences contain ordered events which carry at least two attributes: the event's label and its timestamp. Suffix and remaining time prediction are about obtaining the most likely continuation of event labels and the remaining time until the sequence finishes, respectively. Recent deep learning-based works for such predictions are prone to potentially large prediction errors because of closed-loop training (i.e., the next event is conditioned on the ground truth of previous events) and open-loop inference (i.e., the next event is conditioned on previously predicted events). In this work, we propose an encoder-decoder architecture for open-loop training to advance the suffix and remaining time prediction of event sequences. To capture the joint temporal dynamics of events, we harness the power of adversarial learning techniques to boost prediction performance. We consider four real-life datasets and three baselines in our experiments. The results show improvements up to four times compared to the state of the art in suffix and remaining time prediction of event sequences, specifically in the realm of business process executions. We also show that the obtained improvements of adversarial training are superior compared to standard training under the same experimental setup.

Zahra Dasht Bozorgi, Irene Teinemaa, Marlon Dumas et al.

This paper proposes an approach to analyze an event log of a business process in order to generate case-level recommendations of treatments that maximize the probability of a given outcome. Users classify the attributes in the event log into controllable and non-controllable, where the former correspond to attributes that can be altered during an execution of the process (the possible treatments). We use an action rule mining technique to identify treatments that co-occur with the outcome under some conditions. Since action rules are generated based on correlation rather than causation, we then use a causal machine learning technique, specifically uplift trees, to discover subgroups of cases for which a treatment has a high causal effect on the outcome after adjusting for confounding variables. We test the relevance of this approach using an event log of a loan application process and compare our findings with recommendations manually produced by process mining experts.

Farbod Taymouri, Marcello La Rosa

This paper proposes an encoder-decoder architecture grounded on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), that generates a sequence of activities and their timestamps in an end-to-end way. GANs work well with differentiable data such as images. However, a suffix is a sequence of categorical items. To this end, we use the Gumbel-Softmax distribution to get a differentiable continuous approximation. The training works by putting one neural network against the other in a two-player game (hence the "adversarial" nature), which leads to generating suffixes close to the ground truth. From the experimental evaluation it emerges that the approach is superior to the baselines in terms of the accuracy of the predicted suffixes and corresponding remaining times, despite using a naive feature encoding and only engineering features based on control flow and events completion time.

Abderrahmane Maaradji, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Business processes are prone to unexpected changes, as process workers may suddenly or gradually start executing a process differently in order to adjust to changes in workload, season, or other external factors. Early detection of business process changes enables managers to identify and act upon changes that may otherwise affect process performance. Business process drift detection refers to a family of methods to detect changes in a business process by analyzing event logs extracted from the systems that support the execution of the process. Existing methods for business process drift detection are based on an explorative analysis of a potentially large feature space and in some cases they require users to manually identify specific features that characterize the drift. Depending on the explored feature space, these methods miss various types of changes. Moreover, they are either designed to detect sudden drifts or gradual drifts but not both. This paper proposes an automated and statistically grounded method for detecting sudden and gradual business process drifts under a unified framework. An empirical evaluation shows that the method detects typical change patterns with significantly higher accuracy and lower detection delay than existing methods, while accurately distinguishing between sudden and gradual drifts.

Daniel Reißner, Abel Armas-Cervantes, Marcello La Rosa

Conformance checking encompasses a body of process mining techniques which aim to find and describe the differences between a process model capturing the expected process behavior and a corresponding event log recording the observed behavior. Alignments are an established technique to compute the distance between a trace in the event log and the closest execution trace of a corresponding process model. Given a cost function, an alignment is optimal when it contains the least number of mismatches between a log trace and a model trace. Determining optimal alignments, however, is computationally expensive, especially in light of the growing size and complexity of event logs from practice, which can easily exceed one million events with traces of several hundred activities. A common limitation of existing alignment techniques is the inability to exploit repetitions in the log. By exploiting a specific form of sequential pattern in traces, namely tandem repeats, we propose a novel approximate technique that uses pre- and post-processing steps to compress the length of a trace and recomputes the alignment cost while guaranteeing that the cost result never under-approximates the optimal cost. In an extensive empirical evaluation with 50 real-life model log pairs and against six state-of-the-art alignment techniques, we show that the proposed compression approach systematically outperforms the baselines by up to an order of magnitude in the presence of traces with repetitions, and that the cost over-approximation, when it occurs, is negligible.

Farbod Taymouri, Marcello La Rosa, Sarah Erfani et al.

Predictive process monitoring aims to predict future characteristics of an ongoing process case, such as case outcome or remaining timestamp. Recently, several predictive process monitoring methods based on deep learning such as Long Short-Term Memory or Convolutional Neural Network have been proposed to address the problem of next event prediction. However, due to insufficient training data or sub-optimal network configuration and architecture, these approaches do not generalize well the problem at hand. This paper proposes a novel adversarial training framework to address this shortcoming, based on an adaptation of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to the realm of sequential temporal data. The training works by putting one neural network against the other in a two-player game (hence the adversarial nature) which leads to predictions that are indistinguishable from the ground truth. We formally show that the worst-case accuracy of the proposed approach is at least equal to the accuracy achieved in non-adversarial settings. From the experimental evaluation it emerges that the approach systematically outperforms all baselines both in terms of accuracy and earliness of the prediction, despite using a simple network architecture and a naive feature encoding. Moreover, the approach is more robust, as its accuracy is not affected by fluctuations over the case length.

Volodymyr Leno, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is a technology for automating repetitive routines consisting of sequences of user interactions with one or more applications. In order to fully exploit the opportunities opened by RPA, companies need to discover which specific routines may be automated, and how. In this setting, this paper addresses the problem of analyzing User Interaction (UI) logs in order to discover routines where a user transfers data from one spreadsheet or (Web) form to another. The paper maps this problem to that of discovering data transformations by example - a problem for which several techniques are available. The paper shows that a naive application of a state-of-the-art technique for data transformation discovery is computationally inefficient. Accordingly, the paper proposes two optimizations that take advantage of the information in the UI log and the fact that data transfers across applications typically involve copying alphabetic and numeric tokens separately. The proposed approach and its optimizations are evaluated using UI logs that replicate a real-life repetitive data transfer routine.

Farbod Taymouri, Marcello La Rosa, Josep Carmona

Comparing business process variants using event logs is a common use case in process mining. Existing techniques for process variant analysis detect statistically-significant differences between variants at the level of individual entities (such as process activities) and their relationships (e.g. directly-follows relations between activities). This may lead to a proliferation of differences due to the low level of granularity in which such differences are captured. This paper presents a novel approach to detect statistically-significant differences between variants at the level of entire process traces (i.e. sequences of directly-follows relations). The cornerstone of this approach is a technique to learn a directly follows graph called mutual fingerprint from the event logs of the two variants. A mutual fingerprint is a lossless encoding of a set of traces and their duration using discrete wavelet transformation. This structure facilitates the understanding of statistical differences along the control-flow and performance dimensions. The approach has been evaluated using real-life event logs against two baselines. The results show that at a trace level, the baselines cannot always reveal the differences discovered by our approach, or can detect spurious differences.

Daniel Reißner, Abel Armas-Cervantes, Raffaele Conforti et al.

Given a model of the expected behavior of a business process and an event log recording its observed behavior, the problem of business process conformance checking is that of identifying and describing the differences between the model and the log. A desirable feature of a conformance checking technique is to identify a minimal yet complete set of differences. Existing conformance checking techniques that fulfil this property exhibit limited scalability when confronted to large and complex models and logs. This paper presents two complementary techniques to address these shortcomings. The first technique transforms the model and log into two automata. These automata are compared using an error-correcting synchronized product, computed via an A* that guarantees the resulting automaton captures all differences with a minimal amount of error corrections. The synchronized product is used to extract minimal-length alignments between each trace of the log and the closest corresponding trace of the model. A limitation of the first technique is that as the level of concurrency in the model increases, the size of the automaton of the model grows exponentially, thus hampering scalability. To address this limitation, the paper proposes a second technique wherein the process model is first decomposed into a set of automata, known as S-components, such that the product of these automata is equal to the automaton of the whole process model. An error-correcting product is computed for each S-component separately and the resulting automata are recomposed into a single product automaton capturing all differences without minimality guarantees. An empirical evaluation shows that the proposed techniques outperform state-of-the-art baselines in terms of computational efficiency. Moreover, the decomposition-based technique is optimal for the vast majority of datasets and quasi-optimal for the remaining ones.

Artem Polyvyanyy, Arthur H. M. ter Hofstede, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Organizations can benefit from the use of practices, techniques, and tools from the area of business process management. Through the focus on processes, they create process models that require management, including support for versioning, refactoring and querying. Querying thus far has primarily focused on structural properties of models rather than on exploiting behavioral properties capturing aspects of model execution. While the latter is more challenging, it is also more effective, especially when models are used for auditing or process automation. The focus of this paper is to overcome the challenges associated with behavioral querying of process models in order to unlock its benefits. The first challenge concerns determining decidability of the building blocks of the query language, which are the possible behavioral relations between process tasks. The second challenge concerns achieving acceptable performance of query evaluation. The evaluation of a query may require expensive checks in all process models, of which there may be thousands. In light of these challenges, this paper proposes a special-purpose programming language, namely Process Query Language (PQL) for behavioral querying of process model collections. The language relies on a set of behavioral predicates between process tasks, whose usefulness has been empirically evaluated with a pool of process model stakeholders. This study resulted in a selection of the predicates to be implemented in PQL, whose decidability has also been formally proven. The computational performance of the language has been extensively evaluated through a set of experiments against two large process model collections.

Ilya Verenich, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit historical process execution logs to generate predictions about running instances (called cases) of a business process, such as the prediction of the outcome, next activity or remaining cycle time of a given process case. These insights could be used to support operational managers in taking remedial actions as business processes unfold, e.g. shifting resources from one case onto another to ensure this latter is completed on time. A number of methods to tackle the remaining cycle time prediction problem have been proposed in the literature. However, due to differences in their experimental setup, choice of datasets, evaluation measures and baselines, the relative merits of each method remain unclear. This article presents a systematic literature review and taxonomy of methods for remaining time prediction in the context of business processes, as well as a cross-benchmark comparison of 16 such methods based on 16 real-life datasets originating from different industry domains.

Volodymyr Leno, Abel Armas-Cervantes, Marlon Dumas et al.

Automated process discovery is a class of process mining methods that allow analysts to extract business process models from event logs. Traditional process discovery methods extract process models from a snapshot of an event log stored in its entirety. In some scenarios, however, events keep coming with a high arrival rate to the extent that it is impractical to store the entire event log and to continuously re-discover a process model from scratch. Such scenarios require online process discovery approaches. Given an event stream produced by the execution of a business process, the goal of an online process discovery method is to maintain a continuously updated model of the process with a bounded amount of memory while at the same time achieving similar accuracy as offline methods. However, existing online discovery approaches require relatively large amounts of memory to achieve levels of accuracy comparable to that of offline methods. Therefore, this paper proposes an approach that addresses this limitation by mapping the problem of online process discovery to that of cache memory management, and applying well-known cache replacement policies to the problem of online process discovery. The approach has been implemented in .NET, experimentally integrated with the Minit process mining tool and comparatively evaluated against an existing baseline using real-life datasets.

Irene Teinemaa, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Predictive business process monitoring refers to the act of making predictions about the future state of ongoing cases of a business process, based on their incomplete execution traces and logs of historical (completed) traces. Motivated by the increasingly pervasive availability of fine-grained event data about business process executions, the problem of predictive process monitoring has received substantial attention in the past years. In particular, a considerable number of methods have been put forward to address the problem of outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring, which refers to classifying each ongoing case of a process according to a given set of possible categorical outcomes - e.g., Will the customer complain or not? Will an order be delivered, canceled or withdrawn? Unfortunately, different authors have used different datasets, experimental settings, evaluation measures and baselines to assess their proposals, resulting in poor comparability and an unclear picture of the relative merits and applicability of different methods. To address this gap, this article presents a systematic review and taxonomy of outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring methods, and a comparative experimental evaluation of eleven representative methods using a benchmark covering 24 predictive process monitoring tasks based on nine real-life event logs.

Jan Mendling, Ingo Weber, Wil van der Aalst et al.

Blockchain technology promises a sizable potential for executing inter-organizational business processes without requiring a central party serving as a single point of trust (and failure). This paper analyzes its impact on business process management (BPM). We structure the discussion using two BPM frameworks, namely the six BPM core capabilities and the BPM lifecycle. This paper provides research directions for investigating the application of blockchain technology to BPM.

Niek Tax, Ilya Verenich, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

Hoang Nguyen, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Business process deviance refers to the phenomenon whereby a subset of the executions of a business process deviate, in a negative or positive way, with respect to its expected or desirable outcomes. Deviant executions of a business process include those that violate compliance rules, or executions that undershoot or exceed performance targets. Deviance mining is concerned with uncovering the reasons for deviant executions by analyzing business process event logs. This article provides a systematic review and comparative evaluation of deviance mining approaches based on a family of data mining techniques known as sequence classification. Using real-life logs from multiple domains, we evaluate a range of feature types and classification methods in terms of their ability to accurately discriminate between normal and deviant executions of a process. We also analyze the interestingness of the rule sets extracted using different methods. We observe that feature sets extracted using pattern mining techniques only slightly outperform simpler feature sets based on counts of individual activity occurrences in a trace.