Mark Hansen

Shangqing Cao, Rishi Kumar Srinivasan, Raja Sengupta et al.

The airport access use case is a promising early-stage application for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). Understanding the operational paradigm of UAM at airports is crucial for making equitable and effective regulatory and management decisions. A central open question is whether UAM will be integrated into the airport transportation network as a conventional scheduled transit service, such as subways and rail, or as a Transportation Network Company (TNC) characterized by dynamic supply-demand matching. In this paper, we propose a two-stage framework for conducting an economic feasibility analysis of UAM networks. In the first stage, we introduce a joint-supply-demand variable pricing problem to evaluate the impact of dynamic pricing on UAM operations. This model uses a binary logit formulation to capture the trade-off between travel time advantages and fare levels. In the second stage, the determined demand is used as input for the Electric Urban Air Mobility Vehicle Routing Problem with Non-linear Charging Time (eUAMVRP-NL), which optimizes fleet scheduling and charging decisions to derive operating revenue and cost estimates. We apply this framework to a case study of the Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) access market with an eight-spoke vertiport network. Our results indicate that UAM operations benefit significantly from TNC-like management; a variable pricing policy can increase operating profits by more than 100\% compared to fixed-pricing schemes. Furthermore, we identify economies of stage length in longer UAM flights.

Sitong Wang, Samia Menon, Tao Long et al.

Short videos on social media are the dominant way young people consume content. News outlets aim to reach audiences through news reels -- short videos conveying news -- but struggle to translate traditional journalistic formats into short, entertaining videos. To translate news into social media reels, we support journalists in reframing the narrative. In literature, narrative framing is a high-level structure that shapes the overall presentation of a story. We identified three narrative framings for reels that adapt social media norms but preserve news value, each with a different balance of information and entertainment. We introduce ReelFramer, a human-AI co-creative system that helps journalists translate print articles into scripts and storyboards. ReelFramer supports exploring multiple narrative framings to find one appropriate to the story. AI suggests foundational narrative details, including characters, plot, setting, and key information. ReelFramer also supports visual framing; AI suggests character and visual detail designs before generating a full storyboard. Our studies show that narrative framing introduces the necessary diversity to translate various articles into reels, and establishing foundational details helps generate scripts that are more relevant and coherent. We also discuss the benefits of using narrative framing and foundational details in content retargeting.

Jung Ho Park, Changyeob Lee, Shangqing Cao et al.

We examine how aircraft seat configuration interacts with daily operation in Regional Air Mobility by applying a joint supply-demand optimization framework that simultaneously determines market share, fare, and flight schedule. The framework integrates a binary logit discrete choice model into a task assignment formulation, capturing passengers' mode choice between Regional Air Mobility and driving across spatiotemporal origin-destination pairs. We evaluate three U.S. college town corridors under 4-, 6-, and 8-seat configurations across cost scales from 0.4 to 1.0 and fleet sizes from 12 to 30 aircraft. Profitability and throughput serve as primary performance metrics, and we analyze pricing power, operating cost, and revenue to explain performance variation across markets. We find that larger aircraft configurations and fleet sizes do not improve profitability universally. Larger aircraft are preferred where economies of scale are favorable and demand is sufficient and directionally balanced. The best configuration in these case studies is the 4-seat in imbalanced markets and the 6-seat in balanced or dense markets.

Jiajian Lu, Offer Grembek, Mark Hansen

Surrogate safety measures can provide fast and pro-active safety analysis and give insights on the pre-crash process and crash failure mechanism by studying near misses. However, validating surrogate safety measures by connecting them to crashes is still an open question. This paper proposed a method to connect surrogate safety measures to crash probability using probabilistic time series prediction. The method used sequences of speed, acceleration and time-to-collision to estimate the probability density functions of those variables with transformer masked autoregressive flow (transformer-MAF). The autoregressive structure mimicked the causal relationship between condition, action and crash outcome and the probability density functions are used to calculate the conditional action probability, crash probability and conditional crash probability. The predicted sequence is accurate and the estimated probability is reasonable under both traffic conflict context and normal interaction context and the conditional crash probability shows the effectiveness of evasive action to avoid crashes in a counterfactual experiment.

Ke Liu, Mark Hansen

Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) have been widely used to resolve excessive demand-capacity imbalances at arrival airports by shifting foreseen airborne delay to pre-departure ground delay. While offering clear safety and efficiency benefits, GDPs may also create additional delay because of imperfect execution and uncertainty in predicting arrival airport capacity. This paper presents a methodology for measuring excess delay resulting from individual GDPs and investigates factors that influence excess delay using regularized regression models. We measured excess delay for 1210 GDPs from 33 U.S. airports in 2019. On a per-restricted flight basis, the mean excess delay is 35.4 min with std of 20.6 min. In our regression analysis of the variation in excess delay, ridge regression is found to perform best. The factors affecting excess delay include time variations during gate out and taxi out for flights subject to the GDP, program rate setting and revisions, and GDP time duration.

Asheesh Sharma, Lucy Randewich, William Andrew et al.

This paper proposes and evaluates, for the first time, a top-down (dorsal view), depth-only deep learning system for accurately identifying individual cattle and provides associated code, datasets, and training weights for immediate reproducibility. An increase in herd size skews the cow-to-human ratio at the farm and makes the manual monitoring of individuals more challenging. Therefore, real-time cattle identification is essential for the farms and a crucial step towards precision livestock farming. Underpinned by our previous work, this paper introduces a deep-metric learning method for cattle identification using depth data from an off-the-shelf 3D camera. The method relies on CNN and MLP backbones that learn well-generalised embedding spaces from the body shape to differentiate individuals -- requiring neither species-specific coat patterns nor close-up muzzle prints for operation. The network embeddings are clustered using a simple algorithm such as $k$-NN for highly accurate identification, thus eliminating the need to retrain the network for enrolling new individuals. We evaluate two backbone architectures, ResNet, as previously used to identify Holstein Friesians using RGB images, and PointNet, which is specialised to operate on 3D point clouds. We also present CowDepth2023, a new dataset containing 21,490 synchronised colour-depth image pairs of 99 cows, to evaluate the backbones. Both ResNet and PointNet architectures, which consume depth maps and point clouds, respectively, led to high accuracy that is on par with the coat pattern-based backbone.

Ke Liu, Kaijing Ding, Lu Dai et al.

In this paper, we employ the long-short-term memory model (LSTM) to predict the real-time go-around probability as an arrival flight is approaching JFK airport and within 10 nm of the landing runway threshold. We further develop methods to examine the causes to go-around occurrences both from a global view and an individual flight perspective. According to our results, in-trail spacing, and simultaneous runway operation appear to be the top factors that contribute to overall go-around occurrences. We then integrate these pre-trained models and analyses with real-time data streaming, and finally develop a demo web-based user interface that integrates the different components designed previously into a real-time tool that can eventually be used by flight crews and other line personnel to identify situations in which there is a high risk of a go-around.

Louis Aberdeen, Mark Hansen, Melvyn L. Smith et al.

As the density of spacecraft in Earth's orbit increases, their recognition, pose and trajectory identification becomes crucial for averting potential collisions and executing debris removal operations. However, training models able to identify a spacecraft and its pose presents a significant challenge due to a lack of available image data for model training. This paper puts forth an innovative framework for generating realistic synthetic datasets of Resident Space Object (RSO) imagery. Using the International Space Station (ISS) as a test case, it goes on to combine image regression with image restoration methodologies to estimate pose from blurred images. An analysis of the proposed image recovery and regression techniques was undertaken, providing insights into the performance, potential enhancements and limitations when applied to real imagery of RSOs. The image recovery approach investigated involves first applying image deconvolution using an effective point spread function, followed by detail object extraction with a U-Net. Interestingly, using only U-Net for image reconstruction the best pose performance was attained, reducing the average Mean Squared Error in image recovery by 97.28% and the average angular error by 71.9%. The successful application of U-Net image restoration combined with the Resnet50 regression network for pose estimation of the International Space Station demonstrates the value of a diverse set of evaluation tools for effective solutions to real-world problems such as the analysis of distant objects in Earth's orbit.

Yulin Liu, Mark Hansen

Reliable 4D aircraft trajectory prediction, whether in a real-time setting or for analysis of counterfactuals, is important to the efficiency of the aviation system. Toward this end, we first propose a highly generalizable efficient tree-based matching algorithm to construct image-like feature maps from high-fidelity meteorological datasets - wind, temperature and convective weather. We then model the track points on trajectories as conditional Gaussian mixtures with parameters to be learned from our proposed deep generative model, which is an end-to-end convolutional recurrent neural network that consists of a long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder network and a mixture density LSTM decoder network. The encoder network embeds last-filed flight plan information into fixed-size hidden state variables and feeds the decoder network, which further learns the spatiotemporal correlations from the historical flight tracks and outputs the parameters of Gaussian mixtures. Convolutional layers are integrated into the pipeline to learn representations from the high-dimension weather features. During the inference process, beam search, adaptive Kalman filter, and Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother algorithms are used to prune the variance of generated trajectories.

Aude Marzuoli, Emmanuel Boidot, Eric Feron et al.

Transportation networks constitute a critical infrastructure enabling the transfers of passengers and goods, with a significant impact on the economy at different scales. Transportation modes, whether air, road or rail, are coupled and interdependent. The frequent occurrence of perturbations on one or several modes disrupts passengers' entire journeys, directly and through ripple effects. The present paper provides a case report of the Asiana Crash in San Francisco International Airport on July 6th 2013 and its repercussions on the multimodal transportation network. It studies the resulting propagation of disturbances on the transportation infrastructure in the United States. The perturbation takes different forms and varies in scale and time frame : cancellations and delays snowball in the airspace, highway traffic near the airport is impacted by congestion in previously never congested locations, and transit passenger demand exhibit unusual traffic peaks in between airports in the Bay Area. This paper, through a case study, aims at stressing the importance of further data-driven research on interdependent infrastructure networks for increased resilience. The end goal is to form the basis for optimization models behind providing more reliable passenger door-to-door journeys.