MetaCVR: Conversion Rate Prediction via Meta Learning in Small-Scale Recommendation Scenarios
This work addresses the challenge of CVR modeling for small-scale e-commerce platforms, where data distribution issues hinder effective predictions, though it is incremental as it builds on meta-learning techniques.
The paper tackles the problem of conversion rate (CVR) prediction in small-scale recommendation scenarios, which suffer from data distribution fluctuations, by proposing MetaCVR, a meta-learning-based method that addresses distribution discrepancy and uncertainty, resulting in gains of 11.92% on PCVR and 8.64% on GMV in online tests.
Different from large-scale platforms such as Taobao and Amazon, CVR modeling in small-scale recommendation scenarios is more challenging due to the severe Data Distribution Fluctuation (DDF) issue. DDF prevents existing CVR models from being effective since 1) several months of data are needed to train CVR models sufficiently in small scenarios, leading to considerable distribution discrepancy between training and online serving; and 2) e-commerce promotions have significant impacts on small scenarios, leading to distribution uncertainty of the upcoming time period. In this work, we propose a novel CVR method named MetaCVR from a perspective of meta learning to address the DDF issue. Firstly, a base CVR model which consists of a Feature Representation Network (FRN) and output layers is designed and trained sufficiently with samples across months. Then we treat time periods with different data distributions as different occasions and obtain positive and negative prototypes for each occasion using the corresponding samples and the pre-trained FRN. Subsequently, a Distance Metric Network (DMN) is devised to calculate the distance metrics between each sample and all prototypes to facilitate mitigating the distribution uncertainty. At last, we develop an Ensemble Prediction Network (EPN) which incorporates the output of FRN and DMN to make the final CVR prediction. In this stage, we freeze the FRN and train the DMN and EPN with samples from recent time period, therefore effectively easing the distribution discrepancy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of CVR prediction targeting the DDF issue in small-scale recommendation scenarios. Experimental results on real-world datasets validate the superiority of our MetaCVR and online A/B test also shows our model achieves impressive gains of 11.92% on PCVR and 8.64% on GMV.